Creative ideas and innovative technologies entail peace promises as well as new war perils. Artificial intelligence (AI), information technology (IT) and internet of things (IoT) are double edged swords helping owners as well as enemies. IT is wife of police and girlfriend of criminals. It looks beauty from afar and beast from nearby. Industrial revolutions ended poverty at expense of pollution.
However, medical technologies save more lives than military machines kill in decades. New technologies, developed for piece, are also used to launch hybrid wars. 5th Gen War with 5th Gen Technology (Industry 4.0) is in fact a tantalizing social innovation in which non-state actors play the key role. End of cold war led to unipolar world and hybrid wars are creating a multipolar word.
American dialogue with North Korea in Vietnam and American talks with Taliban in Russia are few iron logics of hybrid war. History is to learn not to live. Political pundits look on history to predict the future. Scientists study consequences of earlier inventions to make sure future technologies can mitigate effects of earlier inventions without creating new problems.
First Industrial Revolution took place between 1760 and 1850 in Europe. It was a period when the agrarian and rural societies became industrial and urban in Europe. Coal fired steam engine driven iron and textile industries played central role in the first industrial revolution.
Second Industrial Revolution took place between 1870 and 1910, just before WW-I. It was a period of growth in existing mechanized industries and transition to oil, gas and electricity fuels. Electricity geared up mass productivity and oil increased machine efficiency. Major technological advances during this period included the telephone, light bulb, phonograph and the internal combustion engine.
Third Industrial Revolution (Digital Revolution) started in 1969. Digital revolution refers to advancement in from mechanical and analog electronic devices to the digital technologies. Major advancements during the digital revolution include the personal computers, digital electronics, internet, mobiles, information, and communications technologies (ICT).
Fourth Industrial Revolution was built on the digital revolution. It consists of new ways of embedding technology within societies and even human body. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, photonics, biotechnology, internet of Things, 3D printing and electric vehicles. Energy systems started undergoing transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy systems.
Fifth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0) is occurring now by interface of humans and machines. Smart devices, intelligent robots, nature inspired algorithms and internet of things are changing the social fabric. Humanoid machines with human mindset and fast working abilities might be part of the spectrum of fifth generation technologies. Intelligent machines will be able to read, write, think and conceive new strategies based on their own learning experience. Energy systems will transform to artificial photosynthesis and nuclear fusion technologies to power this paraphernalia.
The industry of today and tomorrow aim to connect all production means to enable their interaction in real time. Factories 4.0 make communication among the different players and connected objects in a production line. Thanks to technology such as Cloud, Big Data Analytics and the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) to reduce industrial downtimes causing annually $647 billion losses worldwide.
According to Sentryo,” All these improvements are gradually optimizing production tools and revealing endless possibilities for the future of industry 4.0, the crossroads for an interconnected global system. However, this fourth industrial revolution could be the first to deviate from the energy-greed trend—in terms of nonrenewable resources—because we have been integrating more and more possibilities to power our production processes with alternative resources. Tomorrow, factories 4.0 will be embedded in smart cities and powered by wind, sun and geothermal energy.” [ICS 2017].
The first industrial revolution used water and steam to mechanize production, the second industrial revolution used electricity for mass production and the third industrial revolution used electronics and digital technologies to automate production. The fourth and fifth industrial revolutions are using renewable energy integrated smart grid, supercomputers, artificial intelligence, automatic navigating cars, block chain networks, big data analytics and genetic editing techniques.
First industrial revolution in 1765 used coal fired steam engine to build industries and railway transport systems. Second industrial revolution in 1865 used oil, gas and electricity to increase steal, fertilizer and textile productions. Third industrial revolution in 1969 started using nuclear energy, electronics, automation, digital controllers and robots. British Luddites started opposed automation from fear of unemployment as X-Gen experts oppose big data, smart grid and digital revolutions today.
According to Klaus,” Previous industrial revolutions liberated humankind from animal power, made mass production possible and brought digital capabilities to billions of people. Fifth Industrial Revolution is, however, fundamentally different. It is characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, impacting all disciplines, economies and industries, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human. The resulting shifts and disruptions mean that we live in a time of great promise and great peril.”[Klaus 2019].
The time between the first and the second industrial revolution was almost two centuries. The time between the second and the third industrial revolution was just about a half century. The time between the third and the fourth industrial revolution is said to be not more than three decades ... Then, is the fifth industrial revolution already around the corner? Fifth Industrial Revolution started in 2010 and likely to intensify after 2020. Vision 2020 in ICT sector (based on 5G, IoT/IIoT and OTT services) will be base for the fifth industrial revolution known as Industry 4.0.
With rise in technology the war industry has grown into zillions dollars business today. F-16 aircrafts, drone technologies, stealth planes and radars are very expensive profitable products. Goods, electricity and energy companies have certainly higher revenues, but arms industries are right after them. US Walmart ($482bn), US State Grid ($330bn), Chinese CNPC ($299bn) and British BP ($226bn) deals in three digit billions.US Lockheed Martin sold $36bn, Boeing $28bn, BAE $26bn and Raytheon $22bn arms in 2015. Hybrid war support IT devices market that is touching $5 trillion revenue.
Our lives are like speeding bullets, which just have not hit their targets yet. According to Chris Everett twelve billion bullets are produced every year for 7.5 billion people. Every bullet that is produced is used. A bullet costs $0.4 to $0.5 but a cold drink costs $1 to $1.5. It is easier to attack using fifth generation warfare tactics than defending from the enemy within as non-state actors. Human race was to drive globalization with morality which are being driven by bullets and false flag operations.
The next big thing is man-machine interface to operate machines and firearms with human intentions and perceptions without their physical involvement. Fifth generation drone technology can target enemy from half a world away. Smart IA/IT devices are silent sentinels watching niche opportunity from space, land and water. Simple physics of war is to have more deadly bullets, missiles and warheads, but simple math is the rise of weapons also increase their use probability.
America, Russian and Israeli nuclear submarines were lost in deep oceans a few years ago. Was it a war game strategy, or technical fault? One or other cause may fire nuclear missiles from one of these sunken submarines in future to trigger a nuclear warfare on land. India has rented third nuclear submarine from Russia worth huge sum of $3 billion that could have reduced poverty level of people. Advances in IT/AI technologies force military generals replace old war machines.
First Generation warfare refers to classical ancient battles fought with massed manpower, using line and column tactics with uniformed soldiers governed by the state. First generation warriors used elephants and sticks, camels and swords, and horses and arrows. Typical examples include Muslim conquests after rise of Islam and Crusade Wars.
Second Generation warfare refers to early modern tactics used with invention of rifled musket and breech-loading swivel rifles, which continued through the development of the machine gun and indirect fire capabilities. Second generation warfare started in Middle Ages and ended up on steam ships and machine guns. A typical example is Genghis Khan’s composite bow and British gunpowder powered rifled muskets used against America, China and India.
Third Generation warfare used late modern technology-derived tactics of leveraging speed, stealth and surprise to bypass the enemy's lines and collapse their forces from the rear. Essentially, this was the end of linear warfare on a tactical level, with units seeking not simply to meet each other face to face but to outmaneuver each other to gain the greatest advantage. Typical examples of sudden forceful attack include German blitzkrieg on London and US nuclear attack on Japan.
Fourth Generation warfare is characterized by "Post-modern" a return to decentralized forms of warfare, blurring of the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians due to nation states’ loss of their near-monopoly on combat forces, returning to modes of conflict common in pre-modern times. A typical example of fourth generation was US led NATO attack against Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussain in Iraq. It was a decisive war using extreme power. [Kamran 2019].
Fifth Generation warfare is touted to be fought by non-state warriors against nation states out of sheer frustration without clear political objectives. A very broad definition of fifth generation warfare would be the omission of humans from the actual war, or non-contact warfare. Typical examples include use of drones to fire the Hellfire missiles, or dropping of laser-guided missiles. Fifth generation war tactics include massive attack from air, land and water preceded by economic sanctions by countries who sponsor the non-state actors within hostile states. Invader states defame the regime before attack and prove it danger to the world community.
According to Shafaat Ullah Shah, “Fourth generation war (4GW) is a conflict characterized by blurring of the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians…As the divisive demarcation between 5GW and its earlier version is blurred, there has not been any concrete evidence which fully illustrates its criterions…The acts of terrorism especially against hard core military targets like Naval and Kamra military bases and targeting foreign missions like the Chinese Consulate with responsibilities claimed by various terrorists entities …, but would have been perpetrated by hostile foreign power(s) to showcase the weakness of the State and erode conventional war fighting capability. ” [Shafaat 2019].
According to Lily Hay, “Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, law fare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution. Non-contact warfare means destroying a specific target without any direct intervention.” [Wikipedia, 2019; Lily 2018].
India launched proxy war against Pakistan, but arrest of Kulbhoshun proved her involvement. Hybrid wars succeed only in presence of handpicked head of states. The hybrid wars are mediated by non-state actors such as NGOs, religious organizations, racial groups and contractors. It is difficult to recognize them as they live among us and fight against us. Indian Army Chief openly declared they hire local mercenaries and use them against Pakistan. BLA, TTP and Maulana Fazal ullah were used by RA and NDS against Pakistan. People of Pakistan believe India is behind every terrorist activity in Pakistan, but incumbents in respect of America, who brought RA in Afghanistan, did not speak.
India used presence of Russia in Afghanistan to conduct terrorism in Pakistan in 1980s as she used NATO and American presence in Afghanistan to launch terrorism in Pakistan. Indian RA and Israeli Mussad trained Afghan NDS who led the terror operations. Timed explosions with arrival of US and Indian diplomats in Pakistan clearly indicated their involvement but incumbents did not dare to point it out. We understand tone of Indian leaders as Canadians recognize American statements. Indian statements and face expressions in media revealed they were behind terrorism in Pakistan. India is upset from American withdrawal decision from Afghanistan and she might be behind recent attacks against Afghan, NATO and American militaries to invoke Allied Forces to continue stay here that suits her to continue her terrorism campaign in Pakistan. Taliban forces seem serious in talks for their better future.
Trust deficit between India and Pakistan is a big issue. Our leaders chose separate state in 1947 due to long experience of facing prejudice from Hindu extremists. Narendra Modi was member of Hindu extremist organization RSS that supported him get power. They believe in Hindutva (an ideology seeking to establish the hegemony of Hindus and the Hindu way of life). All Indian Governments deprived minorities, especially Muslims, from their rights, but Narendra Modi being extremist has given free hand to police and public against minorities. To loot or kill any minority is no more a crime in India.
Media channels showed videos of Hindu extremists throwing dirty waters on female Muslim students returning from schools/colleges back to their homes. The situation is even worse in Kashmir where rape is used as weapon to demoralize Kashmiri freedom fighters. Liberty and freedom of speech is part of US Constitution but they do not use this principle to support Kashmiris. Kashmir and Israel are two world’s largest jails where owners of land have been locked into their homes. Indian and Israeli occupations on Kashmir and Palestine are slaps in the face of democracy and modernity.
India openly declared that she wanted to isolate Pakistan diplomatically to carry out military operations in Kashmir. Indian media propagates her national agenda to defame Pakistan. In the case of downing of two Indian MIG fighter planes if you search for reality you find tens of false Indian claims of using F-16 to down MIGs and one truth from America that Indian claim was wrong. Indian air strike against Pakistan has shown the world how Indian Media and Incumbents resonantly tell lies.
According to World News Observer,” United States F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin has expressed its annoyance over the factually incorrect statement by Indian Foreign Office spokesperson regarding alleged shooting down Pakistan’s F-16 by IAF on February 27, 2019. The United States enterprise has termed it outrageous and disrespect to the sophistication and repute of this Avionics excellence. The company also claims that since all F-16s on Pakistani inventory are well counted for hence it is obvious that the story by India is concocted for political gains by incumbent government at the cost of F-16s reputation globally. The Lockheed Martin further stated that the company reserves the right to claim damages for the likely loss of their highly integrated state of art air lions. Lockheed martin to file law suit against India for the false claims of shooting down Pakistan’s F-16.” [Zubair 2019].
America inspired ordinary people in Pakistan to repeal Russia in 1980s. First generation of warriors fought against Russia in Afghanistan and some of second generation warriors fell in Indian trap to fight against the state. Religious organizations used to help actively in Kashmir, but Pakistan stopped them 9/11. Local Kashmiris are fighting their freedom war at their own. India wants to involve Pakistan to shift world attention from Kashmir Conflict. I am sure India was the mastermind of all suicide and car bomb attacks in mosques, military installations, shrines, schools and foreign embassies. UN, UK and USA must apply same rule against Hindu Extremists that they propose for Muslim Extremists. The mission should be to eliminate extremists, not any particular faith followers.
I wonder India and Pakistan got independence seven decades yet their leaders have not come of age to live like good neighbors with each other. I How lives of innocent men, women and children are required to Indo-Pak leaders to solve the Kashmir Conflict? t is very sad both countries have attained nuclear capability yet unable to solve their mutual conflicts themselves. Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has realized it due to his sports background but Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is not understanding due to his extremist organization RSS background. I know both Indian and Pakistani leaders trust in British and American leaders who should come forward to solve Kashmir Conflict that they themselves cannot resolve. India and Pakistan should try to reduce their trust deficit to go ahead. India and Pakistan need statesmen, not politicians to reduce trust deficit. A cool mind can harvest the sun and hot tempered people cannot manage even their own extremist views.
It is very strange the sun rises first in the East yet sheen comes first from the west. Light comes from the East and luster from the West. Francis Hauksbee invented the first electrostatic glow lamp in 1705, Humphry Davy invented first arc lamp in 1803, Thomas Edison patented his electric bulb in 1879, Georges Claude invented Neon Lamp in 1910, Edmund Germer invented fluorescent lamp in 1926, Phillips developed energy saving light in 1981 and long life florescent bulb in 1991, Shuji Nakamura invented white light LED in 1995, Phillips developed LED bulb in 2008 and won L prize in 2011. British and Korean scientists have launched a light piping venture in London to deliver sunlight for indoor lighting [Inhabitat 2019].
Lightning used to play in sky over heads and hydrocarbon fuels were resting underneath but our ancestors remained unaware of these blessings for thousands of years. The climate change forced ancient humans to migrate out of Africa to Egypt, Mesopotamia and Indus Valley to ponder on nature. Ancient humans discovered fire before 100,000 years ago [Gowlett 2016], started simple agriculture 10,000 years ago [Gupta 2004], invented wheel 5,500 years ago [Megan 2009] and developed cuneiform and hieroglyphic writing skill 5,000 years ago [Goldwasser 2010]. The long journey from mire to wire was focused on food, health, transport and energy sectors.
Ancient Romans started philosophical research on nature and the human psychology. Arabs started experimental research and Europeans launched industrial revolution in 18th century. America joined the sci-tech race later but started leading the world. The sun at the end in America yet new technologies evolve there years before rest of the world. Biologists think brain functions better in cold.
Energy thrives on energy as life thrives on life. Advances in energy, technology, optics and electronics reinforce each other. Invention of microscope, x-rays and ultrasound machines helped biologists recognize invisible bacteria and diagnose heart, chest and brain. Science and technology go hand in hand to supply tools to see the smallest invisible things. Advances in nanotechnology have facilitated materials, space, electronics, optics and biological sciences.
Ancient Egyptians were aware of 200 diseases 4600 years ago, Diocles wrote first book on anatomy 2300 years ago, Persian physician Rhazes identified smallpox in 910, Avicenna wrote book “The Canon of Medicine” in 1010, Leonardo da Vinci started dissecting corpses in 1489, Anton van Leeuwenhoek observes bacteria in 1683, Edward Jenner develops the process of vaccination for smallpox in 1796, Rene Laennec invented the stethoscope in 1816, Louis Pasteur identifies germs as cause of disease in 1857, Louis Pasteur developed first vaccine for rabies in 1882, Koch discovered TB bacillus in 1880s, Artificial skin in 1981, Felix Hoffman developed aspirin in 1899, Hans Adolf Eduard Driesch started cloning experiments in 1902 and electrocardiograph invented in 1914 during WW-I [Chris 2019].
The insulin was first used to treat diabetes in 1922, first vaccines for tuberculosis 1927, Sir Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin in 1928, Selman A. Waksman discovers the antibiotic streptomycin in 1943, first influenza vaccine in 1945, John Hopps invented the first cardiac pacemaker in 1950, brain structure in 1957, American biologist James Watson and English physicist Francis Crick discovered DNA in the1950s, first test tube baby in 1978, Martin Evans started stem cell study in 1981, injection for hepatitis B was developed in 1982 and A in 1992,fluorescent molecular probes 1999, first vaccine to target cancer in 2006, environmental effects on DNA in 2010, cardiac hypertrophy reversal in 2013, Zika virus vaccine in 1916, rheumatoid arthritis treatment in 2017, HIV virus patient treated with stem technology in 2019. It is possible to develop GM Humans that is not permitted on ethical grounds [Chris 2019].
Giant elephants, camels and horses used to be major means of transport in ancient and middle ages. Arabs conquered half of world using swords, Mongols occupied largest contiguous part of land using horses and composite bows and British Empire capture India/China vehicles and rifles. Thomas Newcomen invented steam engine in 1712, George Stephenson invented locomotive in 1814, George Bissell and Edwin L. Drake discovered oil in 1859, Frenchman Étienne Lenoir and German Nikolaus Otto invented internal combustion engine in 1860s, Karl Benz built first gasoline car in 1885, John Boyd Dunlop invented air filled tires in 1888, Rudolf Diesel developed diesel engine 1890s, Wright brothers built first airplane in 1903, Soviet Union and Allies launched the Sputnik space satellite in 1957, bullet train was built in Japan in 1975, First astronaut reached moon in 1969, iRobot Corporation released first robot in 2002 and Elon Musk announced hyperloop in 2013 [Chris 2019].
All technologies too time to be developed, but electricity took very longer than others. Thales of Miletus conceived concept of static electricity in 600BC, William Gilbert discovered geomagnetism in1600, Alessandro Volta invented battery in 1800, Humphry Davy invented arc flash lamp in 1807, Michael Faraday invented electric generator in 1825, James Clerk Maxwell theorized electromagnetic theory in 1860s, Alexander Graham Bell patented the telephone in 1876, Thomas Edison built the world's first DC electric system 1880s, Nikola Tesla invented first AC electric system in 1888 and Guglielmo Marconi invented wireless telecom system in 1901 [Chris 2019].
Willis Carrier invented air conditioner in 1906, Alva Fisher invented washing machine in 1907, Philo T. Farnsworth invented TV in 1920s, John Vincent Atanasof and Cliff Berry developed first digital computer in 1937 in Iowa State University, John Bardeen invented transistor in 1947, Theodore Maiman invented first laser in 1960, Martin Cooper invented first mobile phone in 1973, IBM released first PC in 1981, Tim Berners-Lee invented internet in 1989, Electronics companies agree to make Wi-Fi a worldwide standard for wireless Internet in 1997, Amazon launched e-book in 2007, Apple launched iPhone in 2007 and touch screen (iPad) in 2010, modern supercomputer of 2015 is still 25 times slower than human brain, computers operate at PHz and likely to reach EHz speed in 2020s.
There are thousands of peer reviewed research journals and magazines today, which report the new inventions, discoveries and innovative ideas worldwide. Researchers update their knowledge in their own narrow fields as it is not possible to even scan the whole literature. All countries contribute in research yet America leads in cutting edge research in science, engineering and technology. Capitalistic democratic system provides desired research environment to promote research. Economy, Technology and Military triangle reinforce one another to excel research and discoveries.
Arabs had played leading role in building foundations of science in middle ages. Discovery of oil and gas reserves in Arab World made them addicted to easy way of life. Summer heat is the only natural disaster for which they have electricity and air conditioners. Europe started science, agriculture and industrial revolutions. Europe had food and winter chill problem that was subjugated long ago. America faces Polar Vortices, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Twisters and Hurricanes which continue forcing Americans look for innovative solutions. The more you face crises, more you think.
Research frontiers are becoming invisible to developing countries due too small and too big or too cheap or too expensive reasons. China leads in cheaper goods and America leads in expensive colossal machines. America, Europe and China are spending on fusion, artificial intelligence and artificial photosynthesis technologies to get rid of fossil fuels and climate change crisis. Asian and Middle Eastern countries do not spend much on research as they rely on western countries. They have to spend their resources on research as followers cannot become leaders.
Light comes from east and technology from west as earth spins eastward. Equatorial countries spin at speed of 1674 km/h, Northern/Southern countries at speed of 1000 km/h and north/south poles at zero speed. We feel no turning effects as our body has no absolute speed sensors. We feel only relative speeds that creates impression sunup in east.
Earth revolves around the sun at speed of 107,000 km/h that orbits around the Milky Way at speed of 828,000 km/h which is moving toward great attractor (barycenter) at speed of 2,160,000 km/h. Allama Dr. Muhammad Iqbal (PhD), national poet and conceiver of Pakistan, had said “Sabaat Aik Taghayur Ko Hai Zamane Mein” (Stability means continuous change with time).
A great whirl keeps everything in motion in universe to be stable. Two wind waves of different speeds on land and ocean create whirlpool in air and cyclones on water surface. A whirl in space gathers mass in its eye to make stars and plants. Heat in earth’s core was created in formation process that radiates into space through crust. In case of huge energy and hydrogen nuclear fission starts in stars. Everything has a definite life in nature after which it dies.
The sun rises in the east and sets in the west. However, sun may rise from the west and set in the east after pole switching [Jon 2015]. Scientists believe the magnetic pole reversal (north-south transition) may occur in human life time to ten millennia durations. Geological studies reveal the magnetic reversal has been occurring in past without any bio-effects except magnetic shield against solar flares [Glassmeier, 2010]. However, there is no credible evidence that actual cataclysmic pole shifting have ever occurred in the past. Anybody may associate mass distinctions, earthquakes and tectonic shifts with pole shifting without any proof [Palmer 2003]. Peer reviewed research papers shows polar wander up to maximum 30° happened in last 200 million years [Besse 2002]. Magnetic field is caused by convection of molten metals inside core or charge particle along the equator. As of January 2019 the north magnetic pole is moving from arctic to Siberia at speed of 55km/y [Witze 2019].
Sun provides light and heat energy in our solar system and there are billions of such suns in the cosmos. Sun is the ultimate source of energy on planet and other forms of energies like winds, rivers and biofuels are indirectly driven by solar energy. The sun power life as no food can grow without sunlight. Energy booms on energy as life thrives on life. Fossil fuels have accelerated prosperity and population. End of the hydrocarbon era will be hard without nuclear fusion. US National Ignition Facility (NIF) must work to rescue humankind from never ending energy crisis. “Harnessing the energy of the sun and stars to meet the Earth’s energy needs has been a scientific and engineering challenge for decades” [LLNL 2019]. Let us end with hope the eminent scientists will harness the sun within this or next decade to rescue the planet from combustion of fossil fuels and greenhouse gases.
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