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Analyses Last Updated: Oct 6, 2022 - 2:17:27 PM


What Russia Stands to Gain From Burkina Faso’s Coup
By Nosmot Gbadamosi, FP, 4/10/22
Oct 5, 2022 - 11:22:42 AM

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Army Capt. Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso has proclaimed himself the new president of the country’s military junta. Traoré dismissed the previous military leader, Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, in the country’s second coup in eight months against a backdrop of mounting jihadi insurgency.

The 34-year-old Traoré has called for both Russian and U.S. support or any other outside powers “willing to help” improve the country’s security woes. In his first public speech on Sunday, Traoré took a megaphone to address demonstrators in the capital, Ouagadougou. “We will start working in the direction you want,” he said, echoing Burkinabé revolutionary leader Thomas Sankara, who also swept to power in a military coup at the same age.

Damiba, who has reportedly fled to neighboring Togo, offered his resignation under seven conditions, which Traoré accepted—including a promise that the country would continue with the commitments made to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on a two-year transition to democratic power.

However, it is increasingly likely that in seeking to reduce attacks by armed groups and thereby keep themselves in power, the new coup leaders will join Mali and pursue support from the Wagner Group, a private military company founded by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. Burkinabé soldiers see the relative success that the Wagner Group has had in seizing back territories from armed militias in the Central African Republic and in preventing rebels from deposing its government.

“Russia is certainly closer to now cut a deal with Burkina than ever, certainly than they were with Damiba,” Rinaldo Depagne, the West Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy. But “what we see in Mali is that Russia does not bring more security or improvements in the situation. … The Russian army in Ukraine is not doing well, and in Mali, the Wagner Group is not doing well at all.”

Strongman politics. When Damiba seized power from elected President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré on Jan. 24, he argued that the president was failing to properly equip the army.

Kaboré became unpopular amid incessant attacks by armed groups and because he ignored mass demonstrations calling for him to resign. This laid the groundwork for a coup backed by the population in which Damiba vowed to beat back jihadis. But his record was dismal. More territories have been lost to armed groups under the military government since January.

Traoré justified his intervention, saying he and his supporters “had no choice” but to intervene. “Faced with the deteriorating situation, we tried several times to get Damiba to refocus the transition on the security question,” Traoré said in a signed statement read out by another officer on state television. “Damiba’s actions gradually convinced us that his ambitions were diverting away from what we set out to do.”

Russian playbook. Russia has sought closer ties with African countries wracked by insecurity by offering military arms and support. Damiba had started on a path of cooperation with ECOWAS, having so far held out against Russia’s offer to train Burkinabé troops. He also allowed former President Blaise Compaoré back into the country within a “framework of national reconciliation” despite Compaoré’s life sentence for the murder of Sankara. Many felt Damiba was becoming more of a politician than a military leader who could succeed against the jihadis.

“The future of these relations will partly depend on how the Western powers support the new authorities,” Mathieu Pellerin, a Sahel senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy. “But what is certain is that part of the public opinion which supported this counter-coup will continue to demand a shift in favor of Russia.”

Russian flags were waved by some of Traoré’s supporters in Ouagadougou due to grievances against former colonial power France. Meanwhile, the French Embassy was attacked by angry protesters after an officer said France was sheltering Damiba at a French military base and that he was planning a counteroffensive. Both Damiba and French authorities have denied those allegations. Demonstrators also attacked the French cultural center in Bobo-Dioulasso, the country’s second-largest city.

Security vacuum. Disorder has increased in Burkina Faso and elsewhere across the Sahel region. Traoré’s move comes amid escalating violence. At least 11 soldiers were killed on Sept. 26, and 50 civilians were reported missing after militants attacked a 150-vehicle convoy. And that follows a similar attack on Sept. 5 that killed 35 civilians.

It is clear that the coup caught regional bodies such as ECOWAS by surprise, as they issued a now well-worn statement “strongly” condemning a takeover by “unconstitutional means.” ECOWAS representatives had been doubling their efforts in neighboring Mali to negotiate the release of Ivory Coast soldiers that the Malian junta had deemed mercenaries. ECOWAS mediators arrived in Ouagadougou on Tuesday to demonstrations against the bloc’s delegates. As a result, the meeting with the junta had to be held at the airport.

The African Union expressed “deep concern,” but its measures of forcing military juntas into power-sharing arrangements with civilian leaders has also led to more coups, such as in Sudan. As previously discussed in Foreign Policy, the violence in the Sahel is a symptom of deeper, unresolved issues, namely the inability of state governments to provide services in all their territories, impunity for government officials who abuse civilians, and a lack of jobs that helps armed groups recruit among the local population.

The situation seems perilous. The insurgency has displaced around 2 million people, representing roughly 10 percent of the country’s 22 million population. There is abuse being committed on all sides, including by the country’s army. Depagne warns that international partners “sanctioning a fragile country like Burkina Faso won’t help.” Instead, “the best thing they could do is to maintain the continuity of the [ECOWAS democratic transition] calendar.”

Traoré’s comments so far suggest he is open to working with all international partners excluding France, who Burkinabé perceive as having worsened civilian casualties in the region. The junta could also seek out the assistance of Turkey, which has increased its military sales to Africa.

What is driving pro-Russian sentiment is a state of desperation among the population over the country’s insecurity. Temporary suspensions of humanitarian operations and donor fatigue has resulted in severe hunger in parts of the country; 3.5 million people are facing food insecurity. In the northern town of Djibo, about 300,000 people have been under a monthslong militia blockade that has led to water and food shortages.

Experts argue it is critical that international partners avoid anti-Russia rhetoric in Burkina Faso that could be weaponized by the junta as the West prioritizing geopolitics over the security of the people. “Western partners have everything to lose by being dogmatic, as this favors rapprochement between the authorities and Russia,” Pellerin said.


Source:Ocnus.net 2022

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