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Last Updated: Aug 27, 2008 - 11:35:05 AM |
The Russian leadership dramatically raised the stakes in its standoff
with Georgia and Tbilisi’s sympathizers in the West. On Tuesday,
Russia’s president signed a decree on the recognition of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, the two separatist regions whose conflicts with the
authorities in Tbilisi triggered three wars inside Georgia during the
last 18 years. Since Dmitry Medvedev was expected to use the potential
declaration as a bargaining tool in the future, many are now perplexed
by his speedy decision.
The president’s move was a reaction to yesterday’s sessions of Russia’s
State Duma and the Federation Council, the two chambers of the Russian
parliament both of which unanimously voted in favor of recognizing the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Analysts expected Dmitry
Medvedev to put the situation on hold, postponing the action on what
was formally a mere recommendation from the parliament. But Medvedev
took less than 24 hours to take his stand.
The move comes hot on the heels of Medvedev’s Monday statement on a
possible termination of Russia’s partnership with NATO. To make matters
worse, also on Monday Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that
Russia would put the implementation of several commitments it took upon
itself as an aspiring member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on
hold. Vice Premier Igor Shuvalov said that Russia will fulfill these
commitments again only after it is allowed to join the WTO, on whose
door Russia has been knocking since 1993.
The decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia puts Russia on a
collision course with the United States and EU countries, all of whom
recognize Georgia’s sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. On
Sunday and Monday leaders of the United States, Germany and other
Western countries specifically warned Russia against officially
recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which had become de facto
independent states after “wars of secession” with Georgia in 1991-1993.
“I am worried by today’s decision of the State Duma on the recognition
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Germany’s Federal Chancellor Angela
Merkel said on Monday. “I expect the Russian president not to sign this
resolution.” American President George Bush also repeatedly demanded
respect of Georgia’s territorial integrity on behalf of Russia, backing
up his words with a dispatch of two American warships to Georgia’s
Black Sea coast, where these vessels are in dangerous proximity to
Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Officially, the American warships are
supposed to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia, but Russian sources
suspect that they could deliver arms and other kinds of support to the
Georgian military, whom the United States has been arming and training
for the past ten years. So, what prompted the Russian leaders to raise
the stakes at this very moment? Hours before Medvedev’s decision was
announced, even pro-Kremlin political analysts suggested that Medvedev
would put the situation on hold, using implementation of the
parliament’s resolution as a sort of an “ultimate weapon” to be
activated only in case of dire necessity.
“If Moscow takes a pause on this issue, that would give Russian
diplomacy additional possibilities of negotiating with Western
partners, pushing them toward decisions which would suit Russia’s
interests,” Vyacheslav Nikonov, the president of the Unity in the Name
of Russia foundation, said on Monday. “The legal recognition is a sort
of a trump card which one would better keep up one’s sleeve instead of
using it now.”
Nikonov’s foundation, Unity in the Name of Russia, is unofficially
considered to be the think tank of the ruling United Russia party, and
his other foundation, Russky Mir, was created on former president
Vladimir Putin’s special order. The fact that he was not informed of
the Kremlin’s move on Tuesday speaks to the spontaneous character of
Medvedev’s move. Other influential political think tanks also expressed
mild surprise at the Kremlin’s speedy decision.
“I think Russia acted without due consideration and restraint,” said
Dmitry Suslov, the deputy chairman for research at the Center for
Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP), an umbrella organization uniting
Russia’s most influential analysts and decision-makers. “This move can
leave Russia strategically isolated. I don’t think we shall face
economic sanctions from EU countries, while U.S. sanctions, if imposed,
will not have impact due to the small scale of bilateral trade.
However, Russia’s move will most likely anger China, which has a
problem with the separatist Taiwan. China may not voice its
dissatisfaction openly, but Russo-Chinese trust will be dealt a blow.”
Suslov discarded other possible Western sanctions – the expulsion of
Russia from the G8 and the suspension the NATO-Russia Council’s work –
as insignificant and largely symbolic.
Alexander Konovalov, the head of the Institute for Strategic Analysis,
was even more outspoken, calling Moscow’s move “irresponsible” and
“unprofessional.”
“This impatient move may throw cooperation between Russia and the West
years back,” Konovalov said. “Instead of discussing this issue first in
the UN, as it was supposed to be done according to the Medvedev-Sarkozy
plan, Moscow rushed forward. Even Americans first discussed the issue
of Kosovo’s independence f
or almost ten years before moving ahead with
making Pristina the capital of an independent state. Why couldn’t we
wait
Source:Ocnus.net 2008
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