The latest delay in France over a decision on whether to risk billions on the Hinkley Point C (HPC) nuclear project in the UK makes it abundantly clear that the fate of the entire French nuclear industry hangs in the balance along with nuclear's role in the UK's energy plans. France's ascendancy in civilian nuclear energy over the last 60 years, both at home and abroad, could go into permanent reversal if the project is not approved, with France following the path of slow decline that has been experienced by the US civilian nuclear industry, which has lost much of its competitiveness. That would improve prospects for rising global competitors like Russia, China and South Korea angling to take the leadership position in nuclear power plant projects (WEO Mar.28'16). In addition, each delay by the French government over this single project increases the risk of a domino effect on other nuclear projects proposed for the UK, undermining its nuclear future.

When French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron last week put off a final investment decision (FID) on the £18 billion ($26 billion) HPC project until September, he set off a firestorm of fury on both sides of the English Channel that quite possibly made hairs stand on end in Beijing, which needs a French "oui" before it will ever dig into its coffers to help fund the project. Since March, the French had said the ever-illusive FID would happen ahead of EDF's annual shareholder meeting on May 12 (NIW Mar.25'16). EDF is now poised to control the reactor division of Areva, which supplies the third-generation EPR intended for Hinkley and is restructuring following its financial collapse.

As furious British members of Parliament called senior EDF executives back to testify in Parliament next month "to explain the further delay," EDF Chief Executive Jean-Bernard Levy promised the French Senate on Apr. 27 that HPC would boast "profitability of 9% per year for the coming 70 years." At the nearby National Assembly, a senior member of one of EDF's key unions testified that while his union backed the project when the deal was first concluded in 2013, a positive FID now "would be destructive" not only to EDF but to the "entire nuclear sector." Most ominous for proponents of HPC are the increasingly public splits in the government: While Macron confirmed President Francois Hollande's commitment to HPC, Environment Minister Segolene Royal said in an interview that she wants "additional evidence" that EDF's "heavy investments will not be made at the expense of investment in renewable energy, especially in photovoltaic power plants."

By September, it will be nearly three years since EDF first concluded an initial investor agreement with China General Nuclear (CGN) and a support agreement locking in a contract-for-difference (CFD) with the UK government, guaranteeing a £92.5 per megawatt hour power price for the operator -- for 35 years (NIW Oct.25'13). In the subsequent years EDF's finances have deteriorated alongside European power markets; prices "have halved in two years," said Levy, from over €50 per megawatt hour to "around €27" today. EDF has also faced continued delays and cost overruns at its EPR under construction at Flamanville in France and the two EPRs under construction at CGN's Taishan site in China, and the specter of flaws in the reactor vessels for all three units that could require massive new delays (NIW Dec.18'15). Meanwhile EPR-vendor Areva has been split into two companies, and EDF has been pushed by the Elysee Palace to take a majority stake in Areva NP, the reactor arm of the former nuclear giant (NIW Jul.31'15). All of these factors have combined to defer any Hinkley FID, as the following stakeholders wait for the moving parts to lock into place. Here's where they all stand:

• EDF shareholders, bondholders and employees -- EDF's former chief financial officer, Thomas Piquemal, reportedly resigned in March because he couldn't sign off on a Hinkley FID (NIW Mar.18'16). His logic is increasingly shared by France's Cours des Comptes (Court of Audit), key unions representing EDF's workforce, and ratings agencies threatening a downgrade if EDF goes forward with HPC. Financing two massive newbuilds in the UK would expose EDF to big new risks, and could capsize its already fragile financial stability (NIW Mar.11'16). French workers expect no major benefit from foreign newbuilds, while EDF's creditors would likely prefer the utility to adopt a less risky strategy of paying down its debts and maintaining its domestic fleet. And while EDF does have some institutional and retail shareholders, the French state owns 84.9% of the company and is conflicted. While the Elysee Palace recently pledged to help inject €4 billion into the company, Royal's public statements reveal an increasing concern that keeping EDF afloat to proceed with HPC might detract from EDF's ability to invest in France's ambitious energy transition (NIW Feb.12'16).

• The French nuclear industry -- French nuclear policy has long been integral to its industrial policy, and Royal doesn't have the last say. France has long held a premier position in the global nuclear industry and that would no longer be the case if it could no longer export reactors; the EPR is basically its only offering and if HPC doesn't happen it's hard to see how other EPR projects could get off the ground (NIW Mar.13'15). This nervousness is underlined by Areva's collapse and subsequent (government-ordered) rescue by EDF -- which will put the state-owned utility effectively in charge of promoting French nuclear exports. In the short term the structure of Areva NP is also another factor pushing players like Macron to back a Hinkley FID: It will be hard to attract outside investors into Areva NP if HPC remains uncertain. Right now the government is hoping to bring EDF's ownership in Areva NP down to 51% from a much larger majority if there are no other outside investors, with Areva's other half (the nuclear fuel side of the company, which was hived off into a separate entity) holding 15%, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) holding 15%, CGN holding 15% and Kuwait holding 4%.

• The Chinese nuclear industry -- For the moment Beijing remains uncommitted to taking such a small stake in Areva NP, although it is ready to take a 33.5% stake in HPC itself (NIW Oct.23'15). The HPC stake would allow CGN to pursue plans to license and build its HPR1000 design in the UK, but it's not clear what Paris can offer it to take such a small non-controlling stake. It's also not clear whether Paris can manage the tension between CGN and MHI, which is eager to invest in Areva NP to secure its Atmea joint venture -- and what might be left of France's reactor business if all else fails (NIW Dec.11'15).

• Whitehall and rival nuclear developers -- The UK government has almost as much riding on the success of HPC as its French counterpart; for a decade now new nuclear capacity has been a linchpin of the country's plans to reduce carbon emissions. But the delays in a Hinkley FID have also shifted the political ground; progress on new renewables capacity -- particularly offshore wind -- and power interconnections with the continent mean that UK power prices will continue to fall, energy expert Antony Froggatt at London-based Chatham House says (NIW Mar.6'15). And while there are no immediate signs of either the UK government or the official opposition pulling back from their embrace of new nuclear, the more prices fall the more unpalatable HPC's £92.5/MWh CFD becomes, and the more pressure builds to rethink the broader nuclear strategy. Meanwhile rival privately owned developers Horizon, an affiliate of Japan's Hitachi, and NuGen, a joint affiliate of Japan's Toshiba and France's Engie, have long said their reactor technologies -- the ABWR and AP1000, respectively -- can come in at CFDs well under that level, but they're currently engaged in talks with Westminster balancing the CFD strike price against whether the UK Treasury can take on more risk than it's agreed to with HPC (NIW Dec.4'15).

A negative Hinkley FID at this point would throw a wrench into many of the above moving parts, impacting everyone involved. But it's not at all clear that the four months until September will give EDF's board, and the Elysee Palace behind it, enough confidence to actually sign on the dotted line and go forward with the project.