Russians' real disposable incomes shaken by 2020 coronavirus recession will fall by 5.2%, the quarterly report of the Institute of Economic Forecasting with the Russian Academy of Sciences reports. This is the biggest decrease in income since Russia's 1998 meltdown, when the plunge reached 16%, Izvestia notes. The institute's predictions for the year are less optimistic than those of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, which provided a figure of 3.8%. However, both predictions agree that in the medium term, the population's income will begin to increase again due to the low base effect and state support measures.

According to the Institute of Economic Forecasting's experts, once the quarantine measures are lifted, it is important to relaunch economic activity, first and foremost by jumpstarting the real sector. At the same time, it will be necessary to ensure the basic demand of Russians through the system of government purchases and credit subsidies to buy Russian goods and housing, notes a report that Izvestia has. The acceleration of the economy will trigger an increase in income and consumption, Alexander Shirov, deputy director of the institute, and one of the authors of the report, points out. The measures of state support implemented currently will have an effect, however, it is unlikely that they will spark any large-scale recovery, the expert added.

The real disposable income of the population will decrease by 6.5-10%, taking into account the changes in the nominal monetary income of citizens and the level of inflation based on the outcome of the current year, Anton Pokatovich, an economist with BCS Premier told the newspaper. "In 2020, the nominal income of Russians will decrease by 2-5%. The main drop will be observed in the second and third quarters by 15% and 6% compared to the corresponding periods of 2019. In this period, wages and income from entrepreneurial activities will go down significantly. The decrease in those key components will be caused by the lockdown, the exit from the market of many small and medium-sized enterprises and a jump in the level of unemployment in the country," the expert explained. He noted that a return to a 3% growth in real income next year would be quite a difficult task.

Meanwhile, Mikhail Kogan, head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Finance Management, told Izvestia that the real disposable income of the Russian population may turn into a positive trend in 2021 due to this year's low base effect. However, the expert noted that it is too early to talk about the full recovery of the citizens' income.