Russia’s economic power is shrinking, and with the world’s oil and gas glut, its chief export is starting lose market share in Europe. A new government report on Russia’s economic output next year shows tepid growth in 2017, and not much to write home about for the next two years either.

“We will continue to lose our share in the world economy and in fact be weaker,” says Kirill Tremasov, head of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economic Development. Tremasov expects 2017 oil prices to average around $41 per barrel, hurting GDP growth but at least keeping inflation in check. Following negative growth this year, Tremasov expects growth of 0.7% in 2017, with an average growth rate between 2017-2019 of around 1.5%.

“We need a growth rate of at least 3.5%,” Tremasov said.

According to economists from FocusEconomics in August, latest data models and surveys of 38 major investment banks and research institutes in Russia and Eastern Europe has most of Eastern Europe beating world average GDP growth rates. Russia, on the other hand, does not.

If oil manages to stay above $50, then these numbers will be meaningless. Oil continues its slide, and is currently trading around $45 a barrel.

The second half of 2016 will be marked by a reduction in the growth of production and investment, but consumer demand might save the day. Since mid-2015, real wages have stabilized and have recently gone up. Real wages will show positive growth in 2016, coupled with declining inflation. Investors will see this as one of the bright spots in Russia, despite growing below world averages.