Russia's new president inherits
a booming economy, but faces many tough challenges.
On May 7, a few minutes before noon, millions of Russians turned
on their television sets to watch the dawn of a new political era. At a
sumptuous Kremlin ceremony, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's newly elected President,
solemnly took the presidential oath, becoming just the third President in
Russia's history.
As he uttered the words in front of the assembled dignitaries,
Medvedev must surely have pondered his remarkable good luck. Still something of
a mystery to the Russian public and just 42 years old, Medvedev knows full well
that he owes his ascent to one person. That man, of course, is outgoing
President Vladimir Putin, a figure now so influential that his recommendations
are invariably taken as gospel by politicians and voters alike.
In other ways, too, fortune has smiled on Dmitry Medvedev.
Compared with the dismal situation that faced his two predecessors, Medvedev
inherits a country that is in remarkably better shape. Fueled by record high
prices for oil and gas --Russia's main exports -- the Russian economy is in its
ninth year of solid growth. Last year the growth in gross domestic product
accelerated to more than 8.1 percent, fueling an impressive consumption boom
and a growing middle class.
Turning Point
It's certainly an enviable starting point for any incoming leader.
But perhaps not quite as enviable as it seems. Medvedev still faces plenty of
tough challenges in the months and years ahead. His tenure will determine not
just the fate of the Russian economy but will also heavily influence the future
of its homegrown businesses and the foreign companies that continue to pour
into the country.
Even Russia's oil-fueled growth has its downsides. Inflation is
rising, exacerbated by the inflow of petrodollars, as well as global trends on
food and fuel markets. Last year inflation was officially 12.9 percent -- well
above target -- and it's set to get worse as the effect of preelection price
controls wears off. The problem is now far and away the biggest concern of
ordinary Russians, according to opinion polls. Rising prices are, in turn,
fueling wage demands, causing growing labor unrest.
It's not an easy problem to fix. As Medvedev ponders the conflicting
advice of his ministers, he will face some tough policy choices over
politically sensitive matters such as government spending and the exchange
rate. Whatever he does, he's sure to displease someone.
While day-to-day economic issues such as inflation are becoming
increasingly complex, they ultimately reflect even deeper problems concerning
the very structure of the Russian economy. Worrisome bottlenecks are appearing,
and could well slow growth unless something is done about them. Even as shiny
glass skyscrapers rise up in Moscow, the city's roads are so awful that
two-hour traffic jams are routine, costing the economy tens of billions of
dollars each year in lost productivity and wasted energy.
Repairing the Infrastructure
Travel to Russia's far-flung regions, and the situation is even
worse. To fix Russia's crumbling infrastructure, Medvedev has pledged to invest
hundreds of billions of dollars in roads, railroads, and airports. But with so
much money being spent so liberally, it will be no easy matter to ensure that
it isn't stolen or wasted.
Like most other Russians, Medvedev also is well aware that
Russia's long-term prosperity depends on weaning the country away from its
heavy dependence on oil and gas and encouraging the growth of innovation. In
developed economies, that role is typically played by small businesses, but in
Russia, these still represent only around 15 percent of the economy.
That in turn reflects the continued pervasiveness of corruption
and bureaucratic harassment. Medvedev, a former law professor, has already
singled out the theme of legality as his No.1 priority. He promises to fight
something he calls "legal nihilism." That's a reference to widespread
disrespect for the law, including corruption of the courts and the police,
which the new President describes as the biggest barrier to Russia's economic
development.
In one of his first policy initiatives, Medvedev has proposed a
radical measure to help small business, backing legislation that will make it
illegal for government officials, such as fire and safety inspectors or the
police, to enter business premises without a court order. The idea is to stop
them from extorting bribes. Business warmly welcomes the plan. But under Putin,
too, various attempts were made to rein in inspectors and clamp down on petty
corruption. Like hardy weeds, corrupt officials always seem to find ways around
them.
Property Rights
Nor is it just small business complaining. At a meeting in April,
Medvedev also heard a long list of grievances from big business leaders, who
urged him to do more to ensure that property rights were protected. The
President-elect gave reassuring replies. Yet so far, at least, Medvedev's
election hasn't eased the state's legal pressure on business. In March, TNK-BP,
an Anglo-Russian oil company 50 percent-owned by BP, was raided by police, and
one of its managers was subsequently arrested for spying.
Another recent controversy concerns Moscow's Domodedevo Airport,
widely acknowledged as Russia's most modern and efficient. Company owners have
complained that state officials are trying to renationalize their property
without compensation. Such cases suggest that, at the outset of Medvedev's
Presidency, conflicts between the state and business are, if anything, getting
worse. Many analysts believe that rival governmental clans, fearful of losing
out in the political transition, are now battling to stake out claims to
property and power. Medvedev's most pressing problem may be reining them in.
It's still far from clear whether the new President has what it
takes to establish his authority over warring barons. For now at least, he is
living in the shadow of his popular predecessor, Putin, whose economic record
will be hard to beat. What's more, Putin will continue to wield huge political
influence as Russia's new Prime Minister, and leader of the largest political
party, sowing confusion about where power really lies.
Ironically, the same factors that have underpinned Medvedev's rise
to power also make it difficult for him to emerge as a strong and independent
leader. After the remarkable boom times of the Putin years, people will be
quick to blame Medvedev if anything now goes wrong, yet continue to credit his
predecessor if they don't. Perhaps Medvedev isn't so lucky after all.