The result is at least 81 people dead in clashes across the
country since violence erupted on May 6; a political and military victory for
Hezbollah and Iran and a stinging setback for the government and Saudi Arabia.
The crises was sparked last week in Beirut when the
government of Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora ordered the communication and
surveillance network at Runway 17 of Beirut Airport be dismantled, claiming it
was "illegal and unconstitutional".
The decision was taken at a cabinet meeting on May 6 that
lasted until 4 am, lobbied for by Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh.
The network is one of the primary espionage tools used by Hezbollah in its war
against Israel, keeping tabs on comings and goings at Beirut Airport.
Adding insult to injury, the Lebanese government dismissed
Wafiq Shuqayr, the Shi'ite security commander of the airport, for planting the
system in accordance with Hezbollah's wishes, supposedly behind the back of
Siniora.
Hezbollah cried foul, claiming the network had been in place
for years, adding that dismantling it was a red line because otherwise Beirut
Airport would be "transformed into a base for the the CIA, the FBI and
Mossad, referring to American and Israeli intelligence.
Hezbollah secretary general Hasan Nasrallah spoke just hours
after the crisis started, saying the communication system and Shuqyar were
"red lines" that could not be crossed. He reminded his audience that
when Siniora became prime minister in 2005, one of the main points of his
political program was "supporting the resistance" and giving it
(Hezbollah) a free hand to wage its "war of liberation" against
Israel in any way it saw fit.
Veteran Shi'ite cleric Abdul-Amir Qabalan, deputy chairman
of the Higher Shi'ite Council, contacted the Lebanese government and advised it
to back down, warning that Nasrallah must not be provoked and that he would not
stand by and watch his security system being torn down. Qabalan said,
"Touching this [communication] system affects our nationalism, integrity
and loyalty to the nation."
The government refused to change course, arguing that
security must be monopolized by the state and that it was inconceivable that a
non-state party like Hezbollah could run a parallel security system at Beirut
Airport.
In this stubbornness, the government failed to anticipate
the value Hezbollah places on what it believed its key rights. Worse, Defense
Minister Elias al-Murr, Interior Minister Hasan al-Sabe and Public Persecutor
Said Mirza were tasked to create a team to look into other security violations
committed by Hezbollah.
Engineering the escalation was Druze leader Walid Jumblatt,
a one-time Nasrallah friend now turned enemy, who knew that within 48 hours the
United Nations Security Council was due to discuss resolution 1559, regarding
the disarmament of Hezbollah, which has yet to be fully implemented.
Nasrallah angrily replied that "we will cut the
arm" of whoever tries to dismantle the arms of Hezbollah, claiming that
security networks were weapons, just like missiles and guns. He then reminded
that in the past, he would always say that "our weapons will never be used
internally", but this time he warned that "weapons will be used to
guard weapons".
He was not understating the situation. By the evening of May
7, all hell had broken lose in Beirut.
Hezbollah troops took to the streets of the capital and were
confronted by armed men loyal to parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri
and Druze leader Jumblatt. Road blocks were set up all over the city, bringing
back haunting memories of the 17-year civil war that ended in 1990, and snipers
showed up on rooftops.
The Hariri-led March 14 Coalition cried foul, claiming that
Hezbollah had launched a coup and taken over the (in the lightening speed of
six hours). Parallels were drawn between Hezbollah's behavior in Beirut and the
Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007.
Nasrallah denied a coup was in the making, saying, "Had
we wanted a coup, they [government leaders] would have woken up to find
themselves in jail, or [thrown) in the sea."
Hezbollah fighters did storm entire neighborhoods of Beirut
loyal to Hariri, aided by Amal militiamen loyal to the Shi'ite speaker of
parliament, Nabih Berri, an ally of Nasrallah. The poor training and weaponry
of the Hariri team was no match for the sophisticated war machine of Hezbollah,
which managed to ward off a massive Israeli attack in 2006.
So amateurish were Hariri's men that it almost seemed as if
they had no arms at all. They were round up in hours, disarmed and handed over
to the Lebanese army. Rather than take control of the districts - to prove that
this was not a coup - Hezbollah fighters called up the army, a third party,
asking it to take control.
Vandalism did take place, and so did an ugly exchange of
words between Hezbollah's team, who are all Shi'ite, and Hariri's men, who are
all Sunnis. One of the most telling acts was shutting down all of Hariri's
media outlets, which were very active in spreading anti-Hezbollah propaganda,
including Future TV, Future News, Orient Radio and Future Newspaper. All of
these were taken over by Hezbollah and then handed to the army, yet hoodlums
did manage to break into Future TV and set one floor ablaze.
Many saw this as a proxy war between the Saudi Arabia-backed
March 14 Coalition and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Telecommunications Minister
Hamadeh said the entire crisis was the doing of Tehran. His boss, Jumblatt,
went even further, asking for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from
Beirut.
Jumblatt's tone changed, however, 48 hours into the
confrontation, when the fighting ended in Beirut and shifted to Druze villages
overlooking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah fighters surrounded his palace in
Beirut, near the American University of Beirut, but did not invade. It was
clear for Jumblatt, one of the United States' main and newfound allies in
Lebanon, that it was pointless to resist Hezbollah.
Jumblatt got on the phone with Nabih Berri, the
Nasrallah-allied speaker of parliament, and said, "I am a hostage now in
my home in Beirut. Tell Sayed Hasan Nasrallah I lost the battle and he wins. So
let's sit and talk to reach a compromise. All that I ask is your
protection."
Nasrallah and Jumblatt had been good friends and strong
allies during the heyday of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. The Druze leader
had positioned himself as one of the main protectors of Hezbollah arms
throughout the 1990s. A political animal, however, he changed sides when it was
clear the Syrians had fallen out with Washington after the Iraq war and he
transformed himself into one of the loudest critics of Syrian power in Beirut.
He put his full bet on the Americans, patched up with the
George W Bush White House (which he had once accused of staging the September
11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington) and became an aggressive critic
of Nasrallah. In his speech on the eve of hostilities, Nasrallah said that the
plan to transform Beirut Airport into a base for the US Central Intelligence
Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Mossad was the brainchild of
"the government of Walid Jumblatt".
Intense fighting between Druze forces and Shi'ite militiamen
raged on in the villages of Shouf, the towns of Aley and Shuwayfat, raising red
sirens throughout Lebanon. This is where heavy fighting had taken place in the
civil war - and although the war ended nearly 20 years ago - the wounds have
not healed.
Two Hezbollah members were killed in the Druze districts,
and another disappeared, prompting Jumblatt to give an urgent press conference,
accepting blame for the entire ordeal and calling on his troops to lay down
their arms, avoid a sectarian outburst, and transfer order of the districts to
the Lebanese army.
Jumblatt added, "I must admit that the Iranians are
smart and they knew how to play it in Lebanon. They chose a time when the US is
weak in the Middle East and did it."
Calm was restored to Beirut when the government, with as
much face-saving as possible, revoked its earlier decisions by transferring the
issue of the communication system, and the security commander of Beirut
Airport, to the army. Instead of executing the orders Army Commander Michel
Suleiman, a neutral third party, declared both null. It is still unclear if the
Siniora cabinet will issue a formal apology for its actions, as the
Hezbollah-led opposition is requesting.
Regardless, it was a political and military victory for
Hezbollah.
The March 14 claims it was a moral victory for itself as
well, saying that they had helped prevent a civil war by backing down on their
earlier legislation. To date, while fighting continues in the Druze mountains,
and has even reached as far north as Tripoli, the government has not resigned.
Not even has Interior Minister Hassan al-Sabe, who is a member of March 14.
Rumors circulated in Beirut that Siniora wanted to step down
when the fighting was at its peek, but was prevented from doing so by Saudi
Arabia. The Saudis, enraged by what was happened in Beirut, realized that Iran
- and the Syrians - had taken the upper hand in Beirut.
True, Hezbollah has restored all "occupied"
districts to the army, but it is clear they were far superior in power,
training, arms and logistics to Saudi Arabia's proxies in Lebanon.
Additionally, they have done it once. Nothing prevents them from doing it again
at any time the Saudi-backed government tries to dismantle, crush or curb
Hezbollah's influence.
When a coup is not a coup
Speaking at the southern village of Bint Jbeil in 2005,
Nasrallah once said, "There is talk of disarming the resistance. Any
thought of disarming the resistance is pure madness. We do not want to attack
anyone. We have never done so. And we will never allow anyone to attack
Lebanon. But if anyone, no matter who, even thinks about disarming the
resistance, we will fight him like the martyr-seekers in Karbala."
That sums it up. Nasrallah will not allow anybody to touch
the arms of Hezbollah and is willing to fight to maintain his status, and that
of his party, in the Arab-Israeli conflict. His supporters argue that as a
pragmatic leader, and a cunning statesman who excels in psychological warfare,
he does not want to rule Beirut.
He is neither interested nor politically able (although it
would be easy, in military terms). He realizes that the confessional system of
Lebanon is too complicated for such a task, and said it bluntly last Wednesday,
"If they told us to come take over, we would say 'no thank you'."
Had he wanted a real coup, he would not have transferred
control to the Lebanese army, nor would he have laid down his arms in Beirut.
He would have invaded and stormed the homes of Jumblatt and Hariri and arrested
both of them, along with Siniora, and set up a new government, to his liking,
and to that of Iran. But that is an illogical scenario that would never pass.
What he did last week in Beirut was show his power - flex
his muscles - and tell the world, "I am still here. Still in control and
still powerful - or as some would say, king - in Lebanese politics."
It was a rude wake-up call to all those who imagined he
would never go this far to bring his message to the region and the
international community.