|
|
|
Last Updated: Jun 25, 2009 - 11:40:32 AM |
Peacekeepers deployed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe must leave Georgia by June 30 after Russia vetoed on June 15
all attempts to keep their mission in force. That is about the same
time General Nikolai Makarov, commander of Russia's forces in the war
with Georgia in August and the commander of the "Caucasus 2009"
military exercises planned for June 29 to July 6, announced that
"Georgia is brandishing its weapons and is preparing to solve its
territorial problems in any way it sees fit."
This raises a question: If Georgia is really planning to start a war,
why is Russia going to such lengths to expel international observers
who will be able to testify to the whole world how Georgia started the
war?
The Akhalgori district is key to any future war in Georgia. In
violation of all agreements signed by Moscow at the conclusion of the
August war, Russia never withdrew its troops from Akhalgori --
territory that was previously under Georgian control and located only
30 kilometers from Tbilisi. If Russia starts a war, Akhalgori would be
the obvious launching area. If, however, Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili initiates the war, Akhalgori would be one of his first
military targets.
Only a few journalists have managed to visit Akhalgori, but those who
succeeded have painted a somber picture of conditions there. Marauding
and killing by South Ossetian "civil guardsmen" have become part of
everyday life. Alkhalgori has been transformed into a military base: It
was from Akhalgori, by the way, that Russian Sergeant Alexander Glukhov
deserted into Georgian territory in January.
Is Akhalgori just a big mismanagement problem? Perhaps, but if Russia
intends to strike Tbilisi from Akhalgori it naturally does not need any
witnesses hanging around -- above all journalists and international
observers. One way is to control events is to deny journalists access
and veto motions to continue OSCE peacekeeping operations. Another way
is to get rid of other witnesses by using the South Ossetian "civil
guardsmen" as a blunt instrument to remove them.
Russia's foreign policy did not become more peaceful following the war
with Georgia. To the contrary, it fought a "gas war" with Ukraine in
January and has recently fought a "milk war" with Belarus. If before
the war with Georgia, Russia's position toward the rest of the world
was "They don't love us." Now it is "They attacked us."
Of course, Russia would be crazy to start a new war with Georgia now.
Unfortunately, it was just such madness that prompted its "gas war"
with Ukraine.
Throughout most of this year, the Kremlin has tried to convince the
world that Georgia started the war. Clearly, the more innocent the
Kremlin considers itself to be, the more likely it will feel justified
in starting a second war with Georgia to settle scores.
In private talks, OSCE officials ask not to take advantage of the fact
that its peacekeepers will not be around to arbitrate -- or prevent --
new conflicts in Georgia. But by leaving, they are making another
Russian-Georgian war more likely.
Source:Ocnus.net 2009
Top of Page
|
|
|
|