Defence & Arms
Those Who Need to Know
By Amos Harel, Ha’aretz 25/4/08
Apr 25, 2008 - 10:44:24 AM

Last September 7, a day after the attack, the concern was that Syrian President Bashar Assad was so humiliated that he would stay out of sight for a while. Now that the Congressional hearings have exposed him to the entire world, Israel's concern is that Assad may now be forced toward an escalation of tensions with Israel.

  Why would Assad behave this way? Intelligence officials offer two possibilities. The first has to do with the international arena: Syria, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, has for years denied it had a nuclear program. Its ties with North Korea, a state considered a rogue regime, does nothing to bolster Syria's image in the world.

  But the second reason is more important: The moment it is officially known that Israel destroyed a reactor in Syria and Damascus failed to respond, Assad's standing becomes weaker domestically and in the Arab world.

  In Israel, the assumption has been that time eases the pain, but will not cure it. The silence in Jerusalem made moderation in Damascus easier. These regional behavioral codes are now disrupted by the Americans in a way that may push Assad toward defending Syrian honor.

  The release of information on the site comes at a bad time for Assad. Syria's economic situation is worsening and the International Criminal Court in the Hague will soon conclude its talks concerning the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. This act implicated senior Syrian officials, and the Arab League Summit in Damascus last week was seen as a failure.

  Amid this complexity, Jerusalem and Damascus have tried their best to bolster each other this week with declarations on their willingness to renew negotiations on the Golan Heights, an effort geared to cool the atmosphere before the revelations in Washington. In talks with reporters, senior officials in Israel complimented Assad's "seriousness and maturity" and described him as a worthy successor to his father.

  But the Americans have other issues in mind: An agreement with China and North Korea requires that Pyongyang avoid the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Cooperation here with Syria blatantly violates that agreement, and Congress is very interested in this issue. Keeping North Korea on a path of ceasing its nuclear program is something that may signal to Iran that there is a way out of its efforts to develop nuclear arms.