WASHINGTON — John McCain dropped a little-noticed bombshell
into his March foreign-policy address: Boot Russia from the G-8, the elite club
of leading industrial democracies whose leaders try to coordinate economic
policies.
One major problem: He can't do it because the other G-8
nations won't let him.
But the fact that he's proposing to try, risking a return to
Cold War tensions with the world's second-largest nuclear power after 20 years
of prickly partnership, raises questions about McCain's judgment. It also
underscores that many of his top foreign-policy advisers are of the same
neo-conservative school that promoted the war in Iraq, argue for a tougher
stance toward Iran and are skeptical of negotiating with North Korea over its
nuclear program.
The Group of Eight, or G-8, as it's popularly known, makes
decisions by consensus, so no single nation can kick out another. Most experts
say the six other countries — Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and
Canada — would never agree to toss Russia, given their close economic ties to
their neighbor. A senior U.S. official who deals with Russia policy said that
even Moscow would have to approve of its own ouster, given how the G-8 works.
"It's not even a theoretical discussion. It's an
impossible discussion," said the senior official, who requested anonymity
because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly. "It's just a dumb thing."
Aside from that, many wonder whether McCain's suggestion
would be wise policy. They fear that if McCain is elected and follows through
on an attempt to toss Russia from the group, it could anger and isolate Russia,
which has been increasingly assertive on the world stage, autocratic within its
borders and is the second-largest producer of the hydrocarbons that feed the
world's energy needs.
"In Europe, there's very little support ... for a
policy like that," said Stephen Larrabee, an expert on Europe and Russia
at the RAND think tank. "It's too late in the game to try and oust
Russia."
The proposal also seemed at odds with the theme of McCain's
speech, which promised a less unilateral approach to world affairs than the
Bush White House has pursued. That could reflect tension between two Republican
foreign-policy camps vying for influence in McCain's campaign: the pragmatic
realists and the hard-line neo-conservatives — with the neo-cons ascendant for
now in Russia policy.
"There are a lot of important issues that we need
Russia's support on. ...What's to be gained by tossing Russia out? We feel more
self-righteous about ourselves?" said Andrew Kuchins, the director of the
Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies,
a center-right think tank.
Randy Scheunemann, the foreign-policy director for McCain's
campaign, acknowledged that "there would be very vigorous discussion"
within the G-8 of a proposal to exclude Russia. But, he said, Russia was
"on a different political and economic trajectory" when it joined the
group a decade ago, and he said it's unlikely that the same invitation would be
extended today.
Scheunemann vigorously disputed that the proposal is a
product of McCain's neo-con advisers. McCain's position on the issue dates to
2003, he said.
The G-8 is an informal alliance of the world's leading
industrialized democracies. Leaders gather annually to discuss a broad range of
global issues, from the economy to security to the environment. Ministers from
member governments then coordinate policies behind the scenes in accordance
with decisions taken at the annual summits.
The alliance was known for years as the G-7 until Russia was
admitted in 1997, at the behest of the Clinton administration, as a way to
encourage further democratic and economic reforms under President Boris
Yeltsin.
Russia has always been an odd fit for the group. While it's
risen in recent years to join the ranks of the world's top 10 economies, that's
due to its energy exports, not its modest industrial capacity. And its
experiment with democracy has gone into reverse in recent years, which makes it
doubly out of step with the seven industrial democracies.
McCain's proposal addresses concerns about Russia's behavior,
which became more adversarial under President Vladimir Putin (who, though he
leaves office this month, will become prime minister and remain Russia's
dominant figure). Examples include its meddling in the affairs of neighbors
such as Ukraine and Georgia, its threat to aim missiles at other European
neighbors in response to President Bush's plans for a Europe-based missile
defense and its crackdown on political dissent.
"It's not from left field," said Derek Chollet, a
senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan
foreign-policy research institution. "As Russia has de-democratized,
there's been this whole question of, `What do we do?' The title is
industrialized democracies. If Russia is drifting away from democracy, what do
we do with it?"
But McCain's solution "on a scale of one to 10 of
possible action, is going to 11," Chollet said.
Instead, "you just have to be cold-hearted about
this," said Colin Bradford, an expert in global governance at the
Brookings Institution, a center-left Washington research center. "We all
believe in human rights and democracy. ...But it doesn't matter what the
internal regime looks like. You need them at the table. We've got to figure out
the incentives" that will make Russia behave better.
Some agree with McCain's approach.
Ariel Cohen, a senior research fellow at the conservative
Heritage Foundation, said McCain's proposal was "right on the money."
"It sends Russia a strong message to stop behaving the
way it does," Cohen said. "As long as Russia doesn't behave like a
democracy, why should it be in the G-8?"
Cohen added that there are plenty of other forums for Russia
to be heard in the world, including bilateral talks, the United Nations and the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
McCain clearly dislikes Putin. A line he likes to use on the
campaign trail is that while Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul,
McCain looked into Putin's eyes and "saw three letters: KGB." Putin
was a longtime officer in the Soviet intelligence service.
The feeling appears mutual: McCain and campaign pal Sen.
Joseph Lieberman, an independent Democrat from Connecticut, regaled reporters a
few months ago with a story of the conference in Munich, Germany, "where
Putin last year chose to give his first real strong anti-American speech
...when you saw a real change," McCain said.
"He looked over and glared at me and Joe in the front
row a couple of times."
That may be because McCain and Lieberman had sponsored a
bill in 2005 urging what McCain is proposing anew: that Russia's G-8 membership
be suspended.
What's striking about McCain's proposal is how far it is
from the Bush administration's long effort to engage Putin. Democratic
presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama also have offered
tough rhetoric on Russia.
Of course, Kuchins said, "they're all on the campaign
trail. Bush has to actually govern."