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Last Updated: Oct 11, 2008 - 8:38:08 AM |
Rightly or wrongly, responsibility for a series of attacks and
assassinations in Iran and Syria in recent years and months have been
laid at the door of the Mossad by the Israeli media.
Lauded by political patrons for his purported rehabilitation of the
Mossad's operational arm, agency head Meir Dagan has sought a return to
the activist stance eschewed by the agency in the wake of a series of
embarrassing botched operations. He has reportedly ruffled feathers
within the agency in the process through the change in focus and a
series of dismissals of senior staff.
The Mossad has reaped the benefits in the form of a major boost in
budgetary and human resources allocations, Haaretz reports.
According to the daily, Dagan has succeeded in a push to tighten
Israeli-US intelligence cooperation in the face of the perceived threat
posed by the Iranian nuclear program.
Under pressure since the 2006 Lebanon War, and in the absence of a
viable military option against Iran, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has
appeared to give the Mossad relatively free operational rein in his
weekly Thursday meetings with Dagan and Mossad staffers.
The widespread domestic popularity of the Mossad's alleged recent
operations was reflected in the decision by analysts on the country's
most watched news program to vote Dagan their "man-of-the-year."
The "award" in itself is a reflection of the profound absence of
domestic popular trust in both the political and, to a lesser degree,
military leaderships in the wake of the Lebanon conflict.
The provenance of spy agency attacks is, of course, virtually
impossible to demonstrate in the absence of substantive evidence or
subsequent claims of responsibility.
A major bombing in Damascus on 27 September was blamed by Syrian
officials on an unidentified Islamist group based in northern Lebanon.
However, Italian news agency AKI reported Syrian opposition figures as
claiming that Brigadier General Abdul Karim Abbas, deputy commander of
the Syrian military intelligence's Palestine Branch, was the intended
target, raising the possibility of Israeli involvement.
Israeli commentators claimed that the blast further reflected the
weakness of Syrian counter-intelligence efforts following the
assassination of Hizbollah commander Imad Mughniyah in the Syrian
capital in February.
This was followed by the assassination of Syrian General Mohammed
Suleiman, who Israeli reports claimed was responsible for contacts with
Hizbollah and the murder of Hamas political bureau head Khaled
Meshaal's secretary Hisham al-Labadani earlier this month.
Lebanese reports that Suleiman was close to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad and may have been a key witness in the probe into the death of
former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri further muddies the waters.
In July 2007, a reported blast at a Syrian military plant, purportedly
used in the manufacture of chemical warheads, killed at least 15
soldiers. According to an ABC News report, the Mossad may also have
either "turned" a worker or inserted a spy at the supposed Syrian
nuclear site bombed last September.
In some cases Syria has accused Israel of responsibility for the
attacks, with Israeli officials either responding with outright denials
or staying mum.
The interests of Arab intelligence agencies and the Mossad clearly
coincide in their desire to probe the inner workings and potential of
the Iranian nuclear program.
Iranian state news agency IRNA alleged last month that recent Mossad
successes were due to cooperation with a foreign intelligence agency.
Hizbollah's Al Manar identified Saudi Arabia as the culprit.
The channel claimed that Saudi National Security Council Prince Bandar
bin Sultan (who Israeli reports claim met Olmert in 2006) played a
leading role in securing cooperation between Saudi and Israeli
agencies. An alleged arms convoy, purportedly intended for Hizbollah,
was blown up in a Tehran suburb in July.
The Iranian claims should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt but
appear to reflect genuine fears amongst the Islamist Republic's
leadership concerning the apparent ability of foreign agencies to
secure access to sensitive research and other sites associated with the
country's atomic program.
The case for ongoing Israeli espionage and spy agency interdiction
efforts in Syria is far from clear given the potential for dialogue
with the Baathist government.
Attacks against Syrian officials and facilities are likely to
strengthen the cause of those within the al-Assad government and
military opposed to the potential resumption of full peace talks with
Israel in 2009.
The Bashar al-Assad government has clearly chosen to ignore the attacks
so far, a fact that reflects the weakness of the country's diplomatic
position both regionally and on the world stage - though ties with
France and, to a lesser extent, the US, appear to be warming.
Nevertheless, the conduct of such operations places significant
pressure on the Baathist government to respond - likely diplomatically
- and has limited strategic import given that the rearming of Hizbollah
is a virtual fait accompli.
Indeed, Israeli involvement in such attacks may force Syria to reverse
seeming recent moves to create some distance between itself and
Hizbollah and undermines the Syrian decision to risk its economically
important relationship with Iran through indirect talks with Israel.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who will head the incoming
Israeli administration should she avoid a breakdown of coalition
negotiations, is known to favor the Palestinian peace track and has
expressed doubts concerning Syrian intentions in the Istanbul parlay.
However, Livni has signaled that she is keen to promote the role of the
traditionally moderate Foreign Ministry within her new government. This
is clearly intended to facilitate diplomatic progress through
diminishing the role of the security-political cabinet (which includes
Dagan) in government peace and other diplomatic moves.
If she is serious about pushing ahead with the Syrian-Israeli track,
Livni must exercise significant oversight over the Mossad, ensuring
that it eschews further attacks on Syrian or Lebanese soil. These are
of limited strategic import and undermine mutual confidence and the
prospects for peace.
Source:Ocnus.net 2008
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