The U.S. presidential election holds the attention of the entire world. As voters evaluate Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, our allies and enemies are weighing the consequences for their interests, and no part of the world is more interested than our NATO allies. Although President Obama has pursued a naive foreign policy and has famously ignored the traditional foreign policy establishment, both candidates have the support of that establishment and will restore American leadership.
Clinton has been endorsed by Democrat and Republican advisors and has gone to great lengths to emphasize her reliance on their experience and counsel. Trump has said repeatedly that he will have “the best experts” available to advise him, and that he will learn from them. He recently released a long list of endorsements from general officers, suggesting a strong preference for military, rather than diplomats or academics. But both candidates have made it clear that they will pursue American interests forcefully, and will show leadership to our allies and toughness to our enemies.
Hillary Clinton’s position on NATO is well known: NATO is the best bulwark against Vladimir Putin’s aggression, and it serves U.S. interests to strengthen the alliance and support its allies. She likely will respond to Putin’s hacking of the DNC computers and interference in the U.S. election, as even the Washington Post editorial board has called for, by imposing additional sanctions on his friends and agents, not only in Russia and its orbit but also in NATO countries.
Donald Trump’s position is less obvious, because he doesn’t speak in carefully couched diplomatic phrases, and his primary emphasis has been to challenge our allies to pay more for collective defense. In spite of repeated promises, most European nations are still failing to meet their commitments: they release 5-year plans, hold press conferences, and make promises, but fail to actually purchase defense systems that let them fight wars. Trump is calling on the allies to stop making excuses and start buying hardware.
One very disturbing trend that has become entrenched during Obama’s presidency is the phenomenon of elected officials in NATO countries that actually oppose American interests and promote Putin’s agenda. They make up a Fifth Column and are more answerable to SVR Chief Mikhail Fradkov (or his newly announced replacement, Sergei Naryshkin) than to their own citizens. They crave the money and power that kleptocratic practices offer them. Putin understands that craving and feeds it, offering them protection so they can loot their national treasuries with impunity, as long as they support his positions. Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum wrote about Putin’s new friends last October, exposing President Zeman and Finance Minister Babis of the Czech Republic, President Fico of Slovakia, and President Orban of Hungary in particular for their slavish support of Moscow’s policies.
These “fellow travelers” sow division between America and Europe, especially in Eastern and Central Europe, and their greatest objective is to undermine NATO. Donald Trump’s statements about burden sharing are aimed squarely at problems like this, forcing reluctant allies to move faster to meet their NATO commitments.
Gary Berntsen is an advisor to the Trump campaign on national security matters and is a highly decorated veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency. He has written about the use of corruption or kleptocracy by Putin’s agents as a tool of statecraft. In a recent email exchange, he made the following points:
“The point of Trump’s comments about NATO was that he will not tolerate weakness in defense of American interests from anyone, especially not our allies. He expects them to meet the commitments they have made, period. It is another of Obama’s failures that he could not get our allies to live up to their NATO commitments. This is bad news for all the Russian agents of influence and kleptocrats who are delaying the modernization of their armies. The free ride that America’s enemies have gotten from Obama is over once Trump is elected because he will expose them and stop them.”
Clinton has stated her unequivocal support for NATO, and she has a strong personal incentive to cut off Putin’s influence. Trump is demanding that the Europeans increase their own support to strengthen NATO, and will accept no excuses. Both will be tough on Putin’s agents. Russia’s secret allies in Europe have only a few months left before they are called to account. European leaders will have to be clear about their loyalties, and the alliance will be strengthened as a result.