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Last Updated: Aug 13, 2008 - 9:42:47 AM |
Had the planned sojourn in China materialized, it would have been a
historic trip for Yadav, who was sworn in as post-monarchy Nepal's
first president on July 23: it was to be his first visit abroad. A
flight to China would have also broken the tradition which required a
Nepali head of state to make his maiden visit to southern neighbor
India.
The president's presence in Kathmandu became a must as the deadline he
had set for the Maoists to form a government by consensus was coming to
an end on Friday. As the leader of Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist),
the party which emerged as the largest in April 10 poll, chairman
Prachanda had been invited by the president to put up a government with
the support from allies in the 601-strong Constituent Assembly.
However, Prachanda's bid to secure a nod of help mainly from three of
the 25 parties in the assembly did not succeed, thereby forcing him to
inform the president of his inability to head the republic's first
government with executive powers.
The president, as the constitutional head, then had to send a message
to the assembly to elect the prime minister. "All emerging trends show
that the phase of consensus and cooperation has ended," said Daman
Dhungana, a former speaker of parliament with a strong Nepali Congress
background. The next phase is likely to be of competition leading to
confrontation of a devastating kind, he added. The main task - of
drafting a new constitution - is being pushed to the sidelines.
Dhungana wondered how the ongoing peace process could reach its logical
end.
The Maoist leaders believe that their initial attempt to woo
like-minded political groups into their fold were thwarted primarily
due to conspiracies hatched both internally and externally. Sources in
the Maoist camp claim that conspirators were working at the promptings
of New Delhi and Washington. But negotiators on the other side of the
table, mainly from the centrist Nepali Congress and the moderate group
UML, rejected these allegations.
On the contrary, the UML accused the Maoists of betrayal at the
instigation of intelligence agents working for India's Research and
Analysis Wing. Had it not been the case, UML insiders contend, former
general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal ("Nepal" is a family name in the
country) would have been elected president. Caretaker Prime Minister
Girija Prasad Koirala had been another contender for the top post.
Since he found his name unacceptable to rivals, he quickly fielded
Yadav, who eventually carried the day.
In Koirala's perception, he was prevented from becoming the republic's
first president by Prachanda; that is why he tried to block Prachanda's
election as prime minister. Some saw the 85-year-old Koirala's attitude
as a natural reaction, others found it sheer churlishness displayed by
an elderly leader of high standing. It is a fact that except for the
Maoists, all other parties were reluctant partners in the agenda aimed
at transforming Nepal from a monarchy to the republic. But now there is
a battle among leaders to claim credit for this "landmark change" - a
change that appears to be pushing Nepal into a protracted phase of
transition, fraught with instability and disorder.
Nepal is no longer a country known for peace and tranquility. Villages
have been made unsafe by armed groups, often raising ethnic slogans
with secessionist overtones. Urban dwellers are terrorized by criminals
who often pass as members of the Young Communist League (YCL),
belonging to the Maoist party or Youth Force, associated with the UML.
Travel on highways is not safe much of the time. If spared by bandits,
bus passengers and other highway users are likely to be held up for
hours, if not for days, by agitated crowds of villagers who block their
passage by placing big boulders and felled trees on the roads should
one of them be killed by a passing vehicle. The government is unable or
unwilling to intervene.
Similarly, street violence has increased, with little government
reaction. In July, the International Crisis Group said "law and order
is in tatters".
A large number of people in the predominantly agricultural country face
starvation. Media reports from districts in remote far western hills
claim that about 4 million people are affected by food shortages. The
worst-affected district is Bajhaang, where 30 of the 47 villages are
"directly affected" by food shortages, the official newspaper,
Gorakhapatra, reported on Sunday.
People are leaving their villages in hundreds, going to towns in the
southern plains in search of food. The less are often seen crossing the
border to India without any definite place to go.
Local yields are insufficient, but authorities are not making
arrangements for additional supplies from adjoining areas.
The political leadership appear criminally indifferent and insensitive
to human lives. And those in the opposition look as dull as the dead.
That Nepal possesses the characteristics of a fragile, if not failed,
state is obvious. It ranks 22nd among 141 countries selected to be
included in an "Index of state weakness in the developing world", which
was prepared this year by the Brookings Institution in the US. The 21
countries where the situation is worse than in Nepal include
Afghanistan, Myanmar, Iraq, Haiti and North Korea. The index is based
on relative performance in four critical spheres: economic, political,
security and social welfare.
This worrisome scenario, analysts say, offers grounds for possible
external intervention. The Chinese are restive and unhappy because
"Free Tibet" activists conduct their campaigns freely, despite
Kathmandu's official assurances that Nepal's territory will not be
allowed to be used for anti-China activities.
And behind much of the Indian rhetoric, in the words of the
International Crisis Group, "is a fear of China's quietly growing
power". The party of the Maoists considers itself closer to China, so
do the other left-leaning parties, who together obtained over 60% of
the votes cast in the April election. And, as the Crisis Group points
out, all major parties are scared to offend China.
Undoubtedly, Nepal is in a volatile situation, and in a vulnerable
position.
But to blame either of the neighbors for the current chaos and anarchy
would be a shameful act of the incumbent bunch of politicians trying to
hide their inability and selfishness. "It is unfortunate that we don't
have leaders with vision, willingness and ability to govern Nepal which
has two of the world's largest economies in its immediate
neighborhood," observes former chief justice Bishwanath Upadhayay, who
headed the panel that drafted the 1990 constitution.
He is not sure if a new democratic constitution can be written without
a conducive atmosphere. That is why he has not taken oath as a member
of the Constituent Assembly, where he is one of the 26 persons
nominated by the government. He says he has no wish to join the
assembly merely to be a job-holder.
Source:Ocnus.net 2008
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