The problem in Nigeria today is that most of the elite recognise that a separation of the country into smaller constituent parts is only a matter of time. Nigeria, as a nation, is a failed state. The long-time dominance of the North in the political and economic guidance of the nation has been a failure. Viewed from outside, the relative backwardness of the North; its feudal structures; and its Sharia Law is not a recommendation for the continued dominance of the nation. The country has managed to almost bankrupt its banks; the stock exchange is a sham; the PDP is a boy's club of greedy bandits with no sense of a national responsibility. There is a litany of failures in the schools, hospitals, road systems, energy, wages and social security. This has been achieved despite billions of dollars earned each year from the resources of the South sold on the world markets.

There are plenty of avaricious and corrupt politicians and businessmen in the South as well but they are not directly supported by the Fulani emirates. It is always a mistake in Nigeria to talk about corrupt politicians without including the corrupt businessmen, bankers, permanent secretaries and civil servants who make it all possible. The National Assembly and the Senate are rich man's clubs and political power is an offshoot of their economic power. This has even been more egregious among the military. What is it that they have done for the country that they should have been given giant oil blocks as their pensions? Why have failed politicians been awarded 'marginal fields? What qualifications, other than political clan loyalty. qualifies a businessmen/politician/civil servant to become a 'local content supplier? They don't do anything but act as rentiers who contract with real companies in the West or China to do the work for them for a fee.

There has been a lot of talk about what will happen if Yar'Adua doesn't return by the 31st of December. Despite the real improvements to his health Yar'Adua has fairly well exhausted his political capital. If Goodluck is allowed to take on the duties the Constitution provides for he will have a Northerner appointed as his Vice-President (rumour swirls around Yuguda and Aminu Jubril). At that point there is a consensus that Goodluck's luck will run out and he had better find a good hiding place as the North reasserts its control.

There is a lot of talk about a coup; but there are two coups being discussed. The first is a junior officer's coup (largely from the Middle Belt) who will take control. In this case it is reckoned that there will be a bloodbath; first the generals and then the politicians. The other coup would be a pre-emptive coup of the generals to restore order, promote national unity, and to prevent the junior officers' coup. This would preserve the control by the North as well.

The Christmas Day attack has brought this to a head. The U.S., in particular, was shocked to find that their recent investigative presence in Abuja was resented and impeded by everyone scurrying to avoid blame. They found the the problem wasn't only Boko Haram and their Northern sponsors but also a monumental failure of US diplomatic programs. The US ambassadors (except for John Campbell) have been feeble, ill-equipped and more interested in exploring their 'roots' than in following their diplomatic functions. The selling of US visas in Lagos has finally been addressed. The US has been dealing with Nigeria in the terms formulated earlier in the Korry Report; with "benign neglect". The chickens have come home to roost. The spectre of Al Quada in Nigeria has spurred the West on to a serious review of Nigeria.

The original US forecast was the year 2015 for the breakup of Nigeria. That date has been advanced by Muttalab. Having seen the last civil war first hand no one would wish that again on Nigeria. However, there seems to be a reluctant awareness that unity is likely to be the immediate price. At that point, the relative poverty of the North may force the feudal structures to dissolve and the North may have to seek a way to maintain itself without the riches of the South.