Editorial
The Zimbabwe Struggle
By Dr. Gary K. Busch 1/4/08
Apr 1, 2008 - 11:31:09 AM

There has been a great deal of discussion in the international press about the Zimbabwean election; most of which demonstrates a staggering ignorance of the realities of Zimbabwean politics. It looks as if the Presidential race may have to go to a runoff in three weeks.  As of this morning, both parties are both stuck at 99 seats each in parliament; ZANU-PF has won the Senate 32-26. In the Presidential race Morgan Tsvangirai has 48% of the vote, Mugabe 43% and Simba 9%.

What is most interesting is that Mugabe has been discussing with the top leadership of the ZANU-PF that he will withdraw from the contest, leaving the runoff to be contested by Morgan and Simba. ZANU-PF reckon that if they give their support to Simba the business community will go along with this as will many of the non-unionists in the MDC.

This is the most elegant solution to Zimbabwe’s central problem; the Zezuru-Karanga struggle for power. To most outsiders the great tribal split in Zimbabwe is between the Shonas and the Ndebele - the latter an offshoot of the Zulus of South Africa who moved into Matabeleland under the leadership of Mzilikazi, one of Shaka’s lieutenants. Most of post-independence Zimbabwean politics has been the jockeying for power between the distinct clans that make up the Shona. The Shona, who began arriving from west central Africa more than a thousand years ago, share a mutually intelligible language. But ethnically they are not homogenous. Between the clans there is a diversity of dialects, religious beliefs and customs.

The five principal clans of the Shona are the Karanga, Zezuru, Manyika, Ndau and Korekore. Of these, the biggest and most powerful clans are the Karanga and the Zezuru. At this moment, largely unperceived by outsiders, an almighty struggle is going on between Karangas and Zezurus inside President Robert Mugabe's ruling ZANU PF party that at this point is destined to explode and completely reshape Zimbabwean politics.

The Karanga are the largest clan, accounting for some 35 per cent of Zimbabwe's 11.5 million citizens. The Zezuru are the second biggest, and comprise around a quarter of the total population. The Karanga provided the bulk of the fighting forces and military leaders who fought the successful 1972-80 Chimurenga (struggle) that secured independence and black majority rule. Nevertheless, the ZANU movement - since renamed ZANU PF - was led by a Zezuru intellectual with several degrees - Mugabe - who did not do any fighting.

The ethnic differences at that time seemed to matter little since ZANU declared itself a united party, transcending clans. Mugabe's predecessors as leader were Ndabaningi Sithole, an Ndau, and Herbert Chitepo, assassinated in mysterious circumstances thirty years ago, a Manyika.

But those clan differences surfaced with a vengeance during the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and after the 2005 election. In the wake of that election Mugabe filled every top position in the state with members of his Zezuru clan and pushed out the Karangas. The Karangas, who know that their soldiers won the Chimurenga, are angry. At the Lancaster House talks the leaders of the Karanga faction were heard to say “We didn’t win this war to put a Zezuru in power”

  Besides 84-year-old Mugabe, his two vice presidents - Joseph Msika and Joyce Mujuru - are Zezurus. Sydney Sekeramayi is a Zezuru, as are the chiefs of the three main security forces. Army chief General Constantine Chiwenga - whose highly combative wife Jocelyn threatened to eat a white farmer at the height of the 2000-2004 farm invasions - replaced a veteran Karanga fighter, General Vitalis Zvinavashe. Zvinavashe and his brother had hoped for great riches from mineral concessions in the DRC, as well as Emerson Mnangawa (the leader of the Karanga faction and former intelligence chief of ZAPU).

The air force chief was Air Marshal Perence Shiri, former commander of the notorious North Korea-trained Fifth Brigade, which in 1983 swept though Matabeleland destroying entire Ndebele villages and murdering more than 20,000 civilians. Shiri christened his campaign against the Ndebele with a Shona word, Gukurahundi, meaning "the early rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rains".

The national police chief is Commissioner Augustine Chihuri, a Zezuru who has publicly declared his personal unwavering support for Mugabe and ZANU PF. Further enhancing his grip on power, Mugabe has placed control of the electoral process since 1985 in the hands of his fellow Zezuru - Tobaiwa Mudede, the all-powerful Registrar General. Mudede has been in charge of all Zimbabwe's electoral bodies.The judiciary also is in the hands of the Zezuru. Godfrey Chidyausiku, a Zezuru, was appointed chief justice in 2001 after Mugabe toppled his predecessor, Anthony Gubbay, one of the last white Zimbabweans on the bench.

The Zezuru hegemony has crept up and become a fact of life in Zimbabwean politics, although for many years there was intense debate as to the authenticity of Mugabe's origins.

What is more certain is that in 1963, when ZANU was formed, Mugabe was appointed to the powerful position of secretary general after being nominated by the late Nolan Makombe, a leading Karanga who had convinced his co-tribesmen in the movement that Mugabe was a fellow Karanga of the influential Mugabe dynasty of chiefs from the area of the Great Zimbabwe ruins near Masvingo. Mugabe cleverly encouraged this belief until he was well entrenched in power.

When in 1974 Mugabe was smuggled out of what was then Rhodesia into Mozambique by a Manyika chief, Rekayi Tangwena, to join the Chimurenga, he was not easily accepted by the Karanga and Manyika guerrilla leadership. But when he eventually ascended to power, the first thing he did was to neutralise the Karanga element by imprisoning many of them - most notably Rugare Gumbo who was the original mastermind of the guerrilla war. Gumbo and several fellow Karanga leaders were kept in underground pit dungeons until independence in 1980.

To quell any Karanga suspicions of his tribal manoeuvres, Mugabe kept the respected Simon Muzenda, a Karanga, as his sole vice president until the latter's death in 2003. Other Karangas, such as the late firebrand lawyer Eddison Zvobgo, long seen as a future leader of the country, were systematically downgraded to provincial leaders. Josiah Tongogara, the military commander of ZANU in exile, was a Karanga who died in Mozambique on the eve of independence in an as yet unexplained car accident. Sheba Gava, a Karanga, was the most powerful woman guerrilla during the Seventies war but when she died in the following decade she was not granted national heroine status.

The 2005 Purge

Even though ZANU–PF emerged from the 2005 elections with a two-thirds majority in the legislature, this party remained insecure and riven by controversy. Internal faction fighting opened up serious cleavages within it that were based mainly on ethno-linguistic considerations. This became apparent in December 2004 at the ZANU–PF congress, in what has been dubbed ‘the night of the long knives’, when a predominantly Zezuru faction, led by a prominent party figure, Solomon Mujuru (formerly known as ‘Rex Nhongo’ the military commander of the ZANU forces), put pressure on the party to elect a woman, Joyce Mujuru, his wife (formerly known as Teruai Ropa ‘Spill Blood’ and a Zezuru) as one of Mugabe’s two vice-presidents. This move was intended to block the candidacy of his party rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, the leading Karanga, for the same position.  

Acting on behalf of Mnangagwa, Jonathan Moyo, formerly the party’s information minister, supported by six other leading party officials, led a campaign to prevent the appointment of Joyce Mujuru. At a meeting in Tsholotsho Moyo’s group and younger members of the party framed what became known as the Tsholotsho Declaration. This expressed their implied criticism of Mugabe’s choice by demanding that a younger candidate replace Vice-President Msika.

Observers were of the opinion that the Tsholotsho meeting was nothing less than an attempted palace coup, which, if successful, would mean that all positions in the presidium would be filled by Emmerson Mnangagwa or his supporters. (The Karanga faction, led by Mnangagwa, has long “felt that it is their tribe’s ‘time to eat’). Most of the prominent members of Mugabe’s inner circle and of his allies, the Mujuru faction, hail from the Zezuru sub-group, while the more populous Karanga ethno-linguistic group, led by Mnangagwa’s faction, has been marginalised.) In fact, the Zezuru Mujuru faction has consolidated its advantage over the Mnangagwa camp by forging alliances with influential Ndebele politicians such as the current parliamentary speaker and ZANU-PF chairman, John Nkomo.  

The campaign against corruption launched by the Mugabe government can also be seen as a political move against certain factions in his own party. Most of those who have been implicated in corruption scandals have indirect links with Mnangagwa. They include three directors tied to ZANU–PF companies, Dipak Padya, Jayant Joshi and Manharlal Joshi, who have fled to the UK. In August 2004, the government seized a mining empire owned by Mutumwa Mawere, a businessman who built his empire on Mnangagwa’s political patronage. It should also be noted that Solomon Mujuru is a key member of the committee probing ZANU–PF companies.  

The marginalisation of other factions in the ruling party has opened the way to realignment within ZANU–PF, which has seen the balance of power shifting further in favour of the Zezuru faction. This has occurred at a time that the fortunes of the political opposition in Zimbabwe have declined. The result has been that this elite cabal has acquired almost hegemonic dominance of Zimbabwe’s political economy. On the other hand, the MDC party has drawn its strength primarily from the Ndebele and the trades unionists.

Simba Makoni

As ZANU-PF has been preparing for the successor to Mugabe the tensions between the Karanga and the Zezuru have intensified. In simple terms, the Zezuru understand that once the Karanga take over the Zezuru, Manyika and Ndau won’t get a look-in for major posts in the government. The succession battle has been going on since 2006.

At a very important Central Committee meeting of ZANU-PF in mid-2007 several names were put forward as possible successors to Mugabe. The consensus was that the successor should be Sidney Sekeramayi  or the technocrat, Simba Makoni. Sekeramayi is a Zezuru and Simba Makoni is a Manyika from Manicaland. The Karanga were convinced that Emmerson Mnangagwa (or another prominent Karanga leader if Emmerson’s health deteriorated further) should be named. This turned out to be a major schism.

This relationship gathered further complexity when Makoni rejected both Majuru’s and Mnangawa’s full support. Makoni chose to align himself with the small Manyika sub-clan, most of whose important officials - including Security Minister Didymus Mutasa, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Agriculture Minister Joseph Made – were then supporting Emmerson Mnangagwa's bid for the presidency. There were also reports that Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, another Manyika, was supporting Mnangagwa.

The cold-blooded succession battle between the camp led by Mnangagwa, regarded as a tough man worthy of the nickname "Ngwenya" (Crocodile) within ZANU PF's inner circles, against the other led by kingmaker Solomon Mujuru, who is not interested in becoming president but who wants to be the power behind the throne, controlling its incumbent. The two main camps mirror the political divide between Mugabe's Zezuru sub-group, which occupies the Mashonaland Central, East and West provinces in north and northeastern Zimbabwe and the most populous Shona group, the Karanga, which mainly occupies Masvingo and Midlands provinces in the south. Paradoxically, Mugabe has always had a soft spot for Mnangagwa, despite his membership of a rival clan.

When Mnangagwa lost his Kwekwe seat, in central Zimbabwe, to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, in parliamentary elections in 2002, Mugabe cushioned Mnangagwa's disappointment by decreeing that he be given the parliamentary speaker post. Again in 2005, when Mujuru's camp thought it had finally killed Mnangagwa's political career, after his second narrow electoral defeat to the MDC, Mugabe appointed him rural housing minister, an influential ministry from where he could rebuild his political fortunes.

With Mugabe refusing to dump Emmerson, Mujuru needed to find a candidate whom he can sell easily not just to ZANU PF but also to the nation and whom also he can control. Makoni is seen as just that person. A chemist and financial adviser by profession, Makoni is perhaps the most widely liked figure in a deeply unpopular and corrupt party. Friends and critics alike agree that Makoni is extremely clever and has a reputation for integrity, unusual in the murky world of ZANU PF politics. He is so far untainted by scandals, looting of state assets and the ruling party's human rights violations of the last two decades.

  By choosing and anointing Makoni, Majuru would be resolving several tricky dilemmas he is wrestling with. These problems include the Ndebele, Zimbabwe's large minority tribe that occupies the west of the country and is descended from the Zulus of South Africa, who are highly resistant to the idea of a female state president. In the internal struggle between the Zezuru and Karanga sub-clans of the Shona nation, support of the Manyikas, from the Eastern Highlands and who constitute about 15 per cent of the Shona population, is crucial: the Manyikas can tip the balance in the power stakes and drive a hard bargain for themselves.

By backing Makoni, Mujuru hopes to appease the Manyika people over the mysterious 1975 assassination in exile of former ZANU leader and liberation war hero Herbert Chitepo. The death of Chitepo, who was succeeded by Mugabe, continues to incite conflict and controversy in Zimbabwe's national politics.

Mujuru desperately needs the support of the Manyika people. He does not have their support because they feel they were robbed of a brilliant leader in Chitepo. After Chitepo's assassination on March 18, 1975 by a car bomb [in Lusaka, Zambia], Mugabe, who was in exile in Mozambique at that time, unilaterally assumed control of ZANU. It was General Mujuru [then operating as Rex Nhongo] who implored guerrillas, most of whom had never met Mugabe, to accept him as their leader.

  ZANU-PF has always liked Makoni because the former minister has remained clean and has the support of the business community. They believe that Makoni is better suited to save them from continuing disaster. The problem has been that Makoni has no political base. He was seen as too weak to run on his own. He was not well-known to the general public. He had cast his lot, not with Majuru or Mnangagwa but with his fellow Manyika.

  He decided to run as a candidate on his own, with his own party. His success was limited. However, he is the third in the electoral pecking order. ZANU-PF now controls the Senate ad has about 50% of the Assembly. It is now safe to throw the weight of ZANU-PF and the business community and the disaffected MDC politicians behind Makoni for the Presidency if Mugabe stands down in the runoff.