Editorial
Three Wolves and a Sheep
By Dr. Gary K. Busch 9/4/08
Apr 9, 2008 - 2:51:56 PM

There is a lot of confusion within Zimbabwe about the process and progress of their national elections; and even more confusion overseas. There are some things which seem to be clear. In the vote for the National Assembly (the lower House) neither the ZANU-PF (Mugabe) nor MDC (Tsvangirai) have an absolute majority of the seats. The MDC (Mutambara) and Simba Makoni’s party hold the swing votes. No one knows how they will vote as no negotiations have taken place in relation to coalition building.

The Senate (the upper House), courtesy of Constitutional Amendment No. 18 of 2007, has a total of 93 seats. Six Senators are elected from each of the country's 10 provinces, making a total of 60. They are joined in the chamber by 10 provincial Governors appointed by the President; the president and deputy president of the Council of Chiefs; 16 chiefs, being two chiefs from each province other than metropolitan provinces, and five Senators appointed by the President.

In the popular vote for the Presidency, whose results have not yet been officially announced, it was clear to all sides that no candidate has won the 50% necessary for an outright win. Therefore, there must be a runoff between Mugabe and Tsvangirai for the Presidency if such an election runoff takes place. In theory this should take place within three weeks of the election, but this is unlikely with all the legal challenges.

The problems with the counting arose from several important elements:

1.   The MDC embarked on a campaign of manipulation through issuing false and misleading statements which were delivered by the MDC secretary-general Biti. His wild claims of a 60% sweep of the election were entirely figures made up for the occasion. Even the others in the MDC did not believe them. His tales of ballot-rigging and violence against voters had no basis in fact. Biti attempted to create an image, primarily designed for the international audience, that somehow the ZANU-PF were rigging the election and that the MDC was their innocent victim.

1. A second element of this campaign was the rash of emails and SMS messages being sent from Harare full of disinformation. These messages said that Tsvangirai had been killed; that his bodyguards had been massacred; that electoral fraud was widespread. When the source of these emails and SMS messages was traced they were found to have come from within the US Embassy in Harare. These false messages announced fake press conferences; false electoral results and fake meetings. On further investigation it was found that two US nationals, employed by the National Democratic Institute, an NGO sponsored by USAID, were the source of these emails. They were deported at the request of the Zimbabwean Government. Two of the journalists who were disseminating their information were also picked up. Their hearing showed that they had ‘no case to answer’ so they were released, only to be picked up on different charges.
2. At the same time the Zimbabwe authorities observed clandestine meetings between the MDC officials and the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. The MDC were offering incentives for the ZEC to come up with a low count for Mugabe’s votes. These were taped and the perpetrators arrested. Seven ZEC people were arrested and are accused of deliberately low-counting Mugabe votes in four provinces.
3. The MDC has gone to the High Court for a Writ of Mandamus, charging the ZEC with the urgency of releasing its figures on the Presidential ballot. However, as long as the very counting is in question, in no less than four provinces, it is unlikely that this writ will be ordered.
4. There has been a nasty backlash from all of the above elements. The MDC propaganda is full of Biti’s fantasies; but the rank and file know that most of what has been said is an exaggeration. At the same time the ZANU-PF people feel a sense of outrage at the attempt by the MDC to steal the election and to portray the country internationally as filled with thugs, bandits and plotters. Many people have taken to the streets in protest, including at the remaining white farms. While all sides are cautious not to let this conflict spill over to create a ‘Kenyan Situation’, feelings are high .

The problem is that there is no agreement or consensus of where one goes from here. Mugabe knows that no matter what he says the international community will not believe him. When the late Jimmy Hoffa was on trial in the US and was told by the judge that he couldn’t possibly be not guilty, Hoffa said “Mr. Judge. You wouldn’t believe me if I had ten angels standing on my shoulder swearing that I was telling the truth”. Mugabe couldn’t get away with being believed even with the Archangel Gabriel blowing his horn at three-minute intervals.

Democracy is often defined as three wolves and a sheep voting on what they will have for supper. The two wolves of the UK and the US are well-known in Zimbabwe. The British, in particular, have been the source of much of the funding and propaganda of the MDC. They want Mugabe out. Their actions in withholding the funds they agreed to provide to recompense the white farmers at the Lancaster House talks is the source of much of the friction with Zimbabwe. The US reaction is a recent phenomenon; the US military has always had a good relationship with the Zimbabweans, especially on counter-terrorism. The third wolf is the ZANU-PF itself which has woefully failed to deal with the challenges which arose from their undeclared war with Britain. Their policies did not bring stability or growth, and the people suffered. The sheep, the people of Zimbabwe (white, black, ZANU, MDC or in exile) cannot see how all this will end. It’s their lives, liberty and property which are forfeit. Another generation of Zimbabweans will grow without hope or focus.

This is such a pity as there are many who would love to have a stable Zimbabwe where they can invest in mines, farms and industries. They want to create jobs and prosperity. Investors from across the world are waiting for this nightmare to be over. A victory which does not resolve the central question of how growth can be kick started; how currency can be more than just scrip; how land title can be secure, and how the talents of all the Zimbabweans can be utilised properly will be a hollow victory indeed.

There is an immense reservoir of goodwill towards Zimbabwe, especially among its Southern African neighbours, which recognises the history of the siege against the nation by Britain and its friends. Russians, Chinese, Indians and others are ready to move their cash and expertise in support of a Zimbabwean renaissance. Somewhere in this flurry of lawsuits and propaganda is a plan to take the steps necessary to start the recovery. A government filled with technocrats, specialists with no ideological axes to grind, will be a good start. To that end a man like Makoni could be a suitable start as a Prime Minister agreed by both MDC and ZANU-PF. There are probably tens of others equally qualified in a range of specialities. This is the time when they must be engaged and empowered if Zimbabwe wishes to survive