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Last Updated: Sep 12, 2008 - 9:04:44 AM |
No surprises
Few political operators or observers were surprised by the collapse of
the fractious coalition between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. Indeed,
some of Yushchenko’s allies – most notably powerful presidential
secretariat chief Viktor Baloha -- seem to have been gunning for
Tymoshenko’s failure even since she reclaimed the premiership last
December.
Meanwhile, inflation has spiralled as Tymoshenko sharply increased
state expenditures, and as Yushchenko engaged in a months-long
struggle over control of monetary policy. On the international stage,
Ukraine’s foreign policy has appeared increasingly incoherent as its
two top leaders struggle to contend with one of the greatest strategic
challenges Ukraine has faced in its short post-Cold War history: how to
contend with a regionally resurgent and supremely confident Russia.
Politics above all
The government’s imminent collapse has little to do with the substance
of economic or foreign policy-making -- the rancour between Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko is fundamentally about the balance of political power.
However, the president has few options to reverse or forestall a
reduction in his powers, the result of a Faustian bargain he made to
peacefully end the ‘Orange Revolution’ in December 2004.
Yushchenko’s influence in the current struggle comes not only from his
constitutional authority to dissolve parliament, but also because his
party -- Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defence (NU-NS) -- though highly
unpopular, has served as the ‘kingmaker’ for Ukraine’s last two prime
ministers. Tymoshenko’s bloc does not have enough votes in parliament
to form a new government on its own. Nor does the opposition Party of
Regions, led by Moscow-friendly former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
Four options, three bad
However, as Ukraine inches closer to its third round of parliamentary
elections in as many years, the ability of NU-NS and Yushchenko to
influence the outcome of the current struggle is waning. If the
president and prime minister cannot resolve their differences, as
appears increasingly likely, Yushchenko’s only politically viable
alternative is to form a coalition with the Party of Regions, or part
thereof. This scenario could entail a split in Regions itself;
although the party has done a reasonably good job of masking its
divisions from public view, there are significant political and policy
disagreements among the party’s top leaders.
Allying with Regions is the ‘least worst’ option for Yushchenko,
although given that the last NU-NS/Regions coalition ended in
government collapse and constitutional crisis just 18 months ago, such
an option would not realistically bolster Ukraine’s tenuous political
stability.
The other three options are even less appealing for the president:
* Yulia’s gamble? Tymoshenko could form an alliance with Regions,
an arrangement that would leave Yushchenko with little authority or
political relevance. Though such a manoeuvre could ensure she retains
the premiership, it would damage her considerable popularity and
reputation as a reformist.
* Regions on the rise Alternatively, Regions could take the lead
in forming an entirely new governing coalition with the smaller parties
in Ukraine’s parliament -- the Communists, Socialists and former
parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s eponymous bloc. Such an
arrangement would virtually negate any prospects for meaningful
political reform for the foreseeable future, and could give Ukraine’s
foreign policy a strongly pro-Russian bent.
* Fresh elections If it appears that NU-NS is on the verge of
being excluded from government, the president could carry through on
his threat to call new elections. However, this scenario is fraught
with risk. New parliamentary elections may only reduce NU-NS’s share
of the vote, and Yushchenko’s influence along with it. In a worst case
scenario, new elections could precipitate serious political
instability, as Ukrainian voters grow increasingly frustrated with the
cycles of crises and snap elections that have marred Ukraine’s
post-‘Orange Revolution’ politics.
Source:Ocnus.net 2008
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