Editorial
When a Drum Begins to Play a Higher Pitch it's About to Break
By
May 5, 2008 - 8:03:47 AM

When the votes were counted for the Assembly (the lower house) and the Senate the results were seen as free and fair. The system was transparent. Everyone in any position of authority or responsibility knew the results of the ballot. The MDC won a majority (combined) in the Assembly and had a very high percentage of the non-appointed Senate seats. SADC observers monitored the election and the ballot casting and had no major complaints.

The results at every polling station were exhibited as a printed and attested sheet outside each polling place. The Zimbabwean entrepreneur, Strive Masiyiwa – the founder of the mobile phone network Econet, had given hundreds of mobile phones to his friends in the MDC. As soon as the results were officially prepared and posted outside the polling station the MDC ward captains called these results through to Harare. Often they arrived in Harare before the official information was passed from the voting stations to the ZEC, the electoral commission.

The tallying of the votes for the Presidential contest was also made. The race was very close so the physical tally of the ballots had to be made by the ZEC not just at the polling stations. This involved the logistical nightmare of transporting the physical ballots from rural areas to Harare; a lengthy process. On the second day of the count the political leadership of both sides knew from the ward captains of both parties that the unaudited count of the Presidential ballots showed Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC with around 48% of the vote and Mugabe 43%. There was no mystery about this. I published these exact figures three days after the election. It was clear that there would need to be a runoff election.

That is when the problem emerged. The MDC leadership embarked on a campaign of manipulation through issuing false and misleading statements which were delivered by the MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti. His wild claims of a 60% sweep of the election were entirely figures made up for the occasion. Even most of the others in the MDC did not believe them. His tales of ballot-rigging and violence against voters had no basis in fact. Biti attempted to create an image, primarily designed for the international audience, that somehow the ZANU-PF were rigging the election and that the MDC was their innocent victim.

The reason for this, other than the fact that his outside sponsors in Britain and South Africa suggested taking this line, was because the MDC was not sure that they would not automatically win the runoff. The newly-elected MDC Assemblymen and Senators wanted to take their seats in the new government. They realised that the country, while supporting change, especially the business community, did not support the current leadership of the MDC. The business community did not relish the thought of putting the labour movement in power, especially a labour movement dependent for funds, support and guidance of COSATU in South Africa. They reckoned that if Mugabe indicated that he would only stay for a while after the election before retiring to let someone like Sidney Sekeremayi (former security chief) take over, the Zimbabwe people would be happy to escape the violence and confrontation of a root and branch change in the country by waiting to see how the new Assembly and Senate would operate and if could get international support in fixing the economy.

Tsvangirai and Biti announced, to the horror of the security chiefs in the Army and the Police, that the MDC would give back the farms which had been taken from their owners by ZANU-PF. Irrespective of the merits and morality of such an action a precipitate dislodging of the current occupiers would present the authorities with a security nightmare they knew they couldn’t control.. It was a recipe for conflict which no one could control. The security forces were alarmed. Even worse, when the issue of a transition to a possible new MDC government arose at the meeting in Lusaka, the MDC leadership told the African presidents that there were British Special Forces standing by at a ‘secret airbase’ in Botswana run by the Americans who would come in, arrest the Zimbabwe security chiefs, and take over internal security until order was re-established.

Both the British and the US adamantly denied that they had any intention of sending troops to Zimbabwe or physically intervening in any way. Yes there is a base the US is using in Botswana. Yes the British Special Forces were (are) at the base doing training ever since their normal training base in Kenya had become less secure. However, the US does not want to jeopardise its opportunities in Africa to set up AFRICOM centres which will allow them to fight terrorists and the drug trade. The British, too, have little desire to extend their military reach in attacking Zimbabwe without regional agreement in advance. This is why the tale told by the MDC was so pernicious.

Even when the vote tally was finally made, and the 48% and 43% votes confirmed, the MDC leadership still refuses to participate in a runoff. However, in the interim its campaign of lies, smears and character assassinations aimed at seeking international support has alienated its own supporters in the country and unleashed a crescendo of violence which everyone was desperately seeking to avoid.

Biti continues to violate the Constitution by asserting that the results of the election show, on his say-so alone, that the MDC has won the first round of the election with a clear majority. It isn’t true and every observer affirms that this is not true. The tragedy is that the ‘international community’ buys this fiction because it is convenient to them. A Presidential election result is not made by a failed Trotskyite turned democrat deciding what the vote should be. Fair elections result from the observed and monitored counting of the ballots. Until that happens and is accepted, the newly-elected MDC Assemblymen and Senators will have to wait, the country will remain in suspension and the violence will likely continue. What a pity!