However, the MDC never prepared and delivered a letter to the Zimbabwe Election Commission officially withdrawing the MDC candidacy for the election. No such required information was forthcoming from the MDC so the country is obliged, under the Constitution, to continue with the runoff election as if Tsvangirai had never made such a public statement. This runoff will be held on Friday, the 27^th of June 2008. The soldiers and police, as is the custom, have already cast their votes so that they can conduct their security responsibilities on polling day.

There is every likelihood that Mugabe and ZANU-PF will win the runoff election, although by a small margin. This has been assisted by a campaign of violence by the security forces and a wide range of irregular militias who have beaten and molested MDC supporters, including an attack on the MDC headquarters. Many MDC followers have been intimidated and may reconsider voting in the election.

There are now a large number of Southern African Development Community (SADC) observers in Zimbabwe to monitor the election as well as Parliamentary observers from African states.  There will be about 380 of these in the country by Friday the 27^th. They are being given free access to the polling stations and will report of the conduct of the election.

The situation inside Zimbabwe is calm. Tsvangirai was advised by his public relations advisors that he would be more effective by seeking shelter in the Dutch Embassy. He could maintain his status of not having left the country (a complaint made against him by his own supporters after the election) but keeping his international press access open. His former spokesman, Tendai Biti, remains in police custody and is making no statements. The new spokesman, Nelson Chamisa, will make statements for the MDC in the period until the end of the runoff election. The MDC point is that as a result of the violence it is impossible to conduct a free and fair election and that the ‘international community’ should not recognise the result of the runoff ballot as valid, irrespective of the views and observations of the SADC and PP observers on the ground.

There have been complaints filed in the UN Security Council, the European Commission and other arenas calling for the election to be postponed or cancelled; despite the constitutional constraints of the Zimbabwe Constitution and the requirements posed by the enabling legislation enacted after the 2007 amendments to the Constitution.

Before Tsvangirai and the MDC made their dramatic announcement about abandoning the runoff poll, there was a period of intense horse-trading between the ZANU-PF (Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa) and the MDC in line with President Mbeki’s suggestion that a government of national unity be formed between the two parties. While each was initially hopeful of a positive result, the MDC statement that they would never serve under a new Mugabe Government but would appoint ZANU-PF ministers under a Tsvangirai Government was not welcomed by ZANU-PF. Mugabe said that he would never allow the formation of an MDC Government. This removed some of the flexibility in the negotiations and they broke down, precipitating the MDC statement of withdrawal. ZANU-PF said that the MDC had not won the runoff so that there was no reason for the MDC to take the Presidency as if it had won and the MDC said it had won a majority in the National Assembly and a plurality in the Presidential poll therefore it had every right to demand control of the government. It soon became clear that this was a dialogue of the deaf.

The most important aspect of this conflict is that a solution to Zimbabwe’s economic crisis is nowhere near, irrespective of who takes office. This was reflected in the post-May 29^th campaign. In their electioneering the MDC never addressed the resolution of the economic dilemma nor put forward any programs that would relive the growing misery and impoverishment of the citizenry. They contented themselves with saying that Mugabe, Gideon Gono and others created this problem so it was ZANU-PF’s problem. They never suggested what it was they were planning to do to resolve this problem. This is of vital concern to a populace without food or a currency which has even a notional value.

 Mugabe admitted the failure of his economic plans but blamed this on foreign subversion and intervention. This time Mugabe made the economy a key plank in his campaign and concentrated on what his policies had achieved in the past twenty years; indigenous empowerment; restoration of African land rights and public control over the mining industry. This was in stark contrast to the MDC who kept suggesting some European deus ex machina which would come in and restore the economy. Indeed, everyone was surprised by the amounts of aid and cash which appeared (and then disappeared) after the May 29^th poll.

The fact that these ZANU-PF policies failed dismally to bring about a sustained growth in the economy was put on the shoulders of the”failed colonialists”. The result of this was

That the population were very worried that whatever new policies the MDC would put in place they would not be quick enough to avert personal disaster for them. The people felt that only a government in place could act quickly enough to make the changes needed and dispense the resources in a timely manner. They believed that it will take at least a year to eighteen months for a newly-elected MDC to improve the economy. Poor people don't have the luxury of time so, whatever they thought of ZANU-PF they would not put their politics before their stomachs. If Mugabe said that there was 150,000 tons of grain on the way to the country, they believed him and hoped that they could get some of it. This is why the other SADC states requested a government of national unity which would combine the immediacy of the ability to deal with the economic crisis as well as the increased democratisation of the political arena. They know from their own experience that poor people vote with their stomachs not their hearts.

Mugabe has made many serious mistakes and allowed incompetents and knaves to take and maintain high office. Some of these (Chinamasa, Mpofu and Mushowe for example) have lost their seats in the first round and cannot become ministers. Chinamasa was actually removed from his post as Attorney-General on the 20^th of June. Gideon Gono of the Reserve Bank has been sheltered by the party and Mugabe for too long and his days are numbered. Welshman Ncube (of the MDC) will be named the Speaker of the House and John Nkomo will become the new Vice-President as Msika is retiring. This will give more representation to the Ndebele constituency and allow several MDC technical specialists to come into responsible jobs.

It is not all gloom and doom in Zimbabwe. The place is quite calm. The security forces, once the election is over, can start cracking down on the informal militias who have been looting a marauding. Right now they need their votes so are very unwilling to interfere. The Zimbabweans know that, realistically, the ‘international community’ may huff and bow but they are not likely to do anything. The Chinese and others will block anything untoward in the UN Security Council; the Europeans will rely on the British for their lead in the policy debate on Zimbabwe and the British will not cut off diplomatic relations with the country. As for a military intervention, the British would have to mobilise the Girl Guides and the Cub Scouts to have enough manpower to do anything in force The US is too busy in its election campaign and the planned assault on Iran to take effective action, even if they knew what effective action would be. The Zimbabweans feel that if the ‘international community’ can’t manage Darfur, Somalia and Eritrea they aren’t likely to push for another policy debacle.

They are relying on the African states to contain Mugabe. This is a vain hope. It would be a very reckless leader of South Africa to come out against Mugabe and his policies of African empowerment, taking African control of the White farms and African ownership of the mines.  This is what the South African radicals have been demanding for South Africa itself and no one dares raise this in the ANC.

There is no satisfactory quick solution to the ‘Zimbabwe Question’. It will have to work its way to a conclusion slowly and, no doubt, with a lot of pain and suffering. It is a pity but absolute justice often takes a long time to emerge, if ever