Therefore China has a significant interest in the Middle
East, and any changes in the situation there will affect China's energy
security. It is only natural for energy factors to play a role in China's
policy toward the Middle East. Although China's opposition to the Iraq war and
to the use of force to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue is not purely based on
considerations of energy security, this is a key factor. In a word, energy
diplomacy constitutes an important part of China's diplomacy.
Energy security is also regarded as a strategically
significant part of China's national security. China's energy security strategy
comprises a number of requirements, of which the first is to increase domestic
oil production. At the end of March last year, China announced that a new oil
field with an estimated reserve of 2,200 million barrels had been found in
Bohai Bay. The daily output of this field is expected to reach 200,000 barrels
in three years. At present, the oil yielded in China satisfies about 50 percent
of domestic need; in future, China's oil self-sufficiency rate should remain no
lower than the present level.
A second requirement is to restructure the energy mix. From
now on, China will give priority to the development and exploitation of coal,
wind power, water energy and bio-energy.
Third, China must establish a national system of energy
reserves. China's current oil reserve mainly depends on the business reserves
of three government-owned oil companies: China Petrochemical Corp., China
National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. Their reserve
capacity is equal to only 21 days of consumption for the entire country. Added
to the newly established national energy reserve bases, the total reserve
capacity in China can meet only 30 days of consumption needs. The petroleum
reserve capacity of China is only one-sixth that of Japan, one-fifth of the
United States, one-fourth of Germany and one-third of France. Thus, in this
field China still has a lot of work to do.
Fourth, China needs to conserve energy more efficiently.
According to the International Energy Agency, the energy consumption per unit
GDP in China is as high as nine times that in Japan, 5.6 times that of the
European Union, 3.3 times that in the US, and 2.7 times that in Korea. So there
is much room for China to develop energy conservation.
Finally, China needs to explore overseas energy resources so
as to realize the multi-model approach to petroleum supplies.
In recent years, oil prices have been rising steadily. This
is the product of a number of factors such as the growth of the world economy,
a decline in oil production, a reduction of oil reserves, the devaluation of
the US dollar, the impact of geopolitics and unexpected events and speculating
in oil trading. Another factor worthy of mention is that the economy is
developing very quickly in some major petroleum-exporting countries, such as
Indonesia, Mexico and Russia. In these countries, increased domestic energy
consumption results in decreased exports. Some petroleum-exporting countries
provide their citizens with plentiful gasoline allowances and offer prices as
low as 7 cents per gallon, policies that unfortunately foster waste. The
consumption per capita in some Middle Eastern petroleum-exporting countries has
even exceeded that of the US.
Another phenomenon that merits keen attention is that in the
current round of oil price rises, one power has taken no measures to control
the price of oil as before but rather has added fuel to the fire and is
enjoying the financial result. Some critics assume that the short-term
strategic energy target of this power is to raise oil prices rapidly in order
to strike at China's economy, lure China into capital outlays for overseas
petroleum industries and then suppress the oil price to create a dilemma for
China's economy.
It is unfair to ascribe the increase in oil prices to the
economic rise of China. China's oil imports account for only 6 percent of the
total volume of oil trade in the world. China's oil consumption is only 8
percent of the world total. Energy consumption per capita in China is only
three-fourths of the world average, one-fourth that of Japan and one-seventh
that in the US. Yet China to a large extent shares much of the burden of high
oil prices insofar as it has replaced the West as the world's factory and the
prices of exported goods from China remain the same as before the rise of oil
prices. This means that China is in effect granting a subsidy to consumers of
goods made in China all over the world.
Although the multi-model approach to petroleum resources is
one of the key aims of China's energy strategy, China is likely to depend even
more on oil imports from the Middle East in the coming years. According to the
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington, 70 percent of
China's imported petroleum will come from the Middle East by 2015. Therefore,
it will remain the basic posture of China's diplomacy for a long time to come
to pay more attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East,
to be more concerned with Middle East affairs and to establish closer relations
with Middle East countries