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International Last Updated: Feb 20, 2020 - 11:39:41 AM


Could a Multibillion-Dollar Canal Be Erdogan’s Undoing in Turkey?
By Clare Busch, WPR, Feb. 19, 2020
Feb 20, 2020 - 11:38:20 AM

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ISTANBUL—Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made multibillion-dollar infrastructure schemes a hallmark of his years in power, championing megaprojects like an ongoing extension of Turkey’s high-speed rail network and a gargantuan new airport outside Istanbul. He and his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, claim they spur economic development and create jobs. Many activists in Turkey have long opposed Erdogan’s building spree due to its high social and environmental costs, but have had little success in stopping it.

That may change with Erdogan’s latest push for what he once called his “crazy project”: digging a 28-mile canal on the western side of Istanbul to connect the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara. It would amount to a second Bosporus. Critics argue the massive canal would have calamitous impacts on the environment and on the city’s urban landscape. Their efforts have the backing of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, a rising star in the opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, who was elected mayor last year in an upset victory over the AKP. If the protest movement gains traction, it could dent Erdogan’s popularity and become a major issue in the 2023 presidential election, when Imamoglu could challenge Erdogan’s hold on power.

Erdogan first floated the idea of the Istanbul Canal in 2011, when he was prime minister. He made it a promise of his 2018 presidential campaign, and has since stated he wants to complete the project by 2023—in time for the election and for a planned celebration of the centenary of the founding of the Turkish republic. The government has said it will break ground on the canal before the end of the year.

Proponents of the canal argue it will allow for more maritime traffic to pass through Istanbul while easing congestion in the Bosporus strait, which ships often wait in line for days at a time to enter. Additionally, while Turkey is prohibited by the 1936 Montreux Convention from charging fees for commercial vessels that use the Bosporus, the new canal would not be subject to these restrictions, so it could generate revenue for the government.

But the problems with the proposed new canal are legion. For starters, there is uncertainty around the cost, and it is not clear where the financing will come from. The government estimates it will cost $12.8 billion, but some economists say the real price tag could be double that.

Environmentalists say the sheer scale of the project will wreak ecological havoc on nearby marine habitats. It will change the course of undersea currents, alter water temperatures and salinity levels in the Black Sea, and potentially lead to the collapse of entire ecosystems.

The planned route of the canal also covers three active fault lines, and the construction work could exacerbate the risk of tremors. Last month, an earthquake in Elazig, in eastern Turkey, killed dozens of people and caused widespread devastation, so the Turkish public is very aware of the dangers such a natural disaster could pose for the city of Istanbul and its 15 million inhabitants.

Opposition activists have been raising these concerns for years, to little avail. But their cause got a boost when Imamoglu held an hour-long press conference in December, in which he railed against the project, calling it a “betrayal” and “murder” of Istanbul and its environment. Afterwards, Imamoglu called on the public to submit formal petitions to Istanbul’s environmental and urban affairs agency, which then reportedly received an overwhelming response, with more than 100,000 complaints in just 10 days.

If the protest movement against the Istanbul Canal project gains traction, it could dent Erdogan’s popularity and become a major issue in the 2023 presidential election.

There are other signs that his involvement is already paying off for activists. Galvanized by the mayor’s support, numerous organizations have banded together to form a coalition that takes its name from Imamoglu’s slogan against the project: Ya Kanal Ya Istanbul, “Either the Canal or Istanbul.” Earlier this month, they organized a protest in which participants walked the planned route of the canal.

His vocal opposition to the project could also help Imamoglu raise his profile as he prepares a likely bid for the presidency in 2023. “If you’re Imamoglu, it makes perfect sense,” says Berk Esen, a professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara. “It brings you name recognition, and it reaffirms you as the most important opposition figure.”

Imamoglu’s ability to rally Turks against the canal lies in his messaging, according to Esen. Whereas previous campaigns to oppose major infrastructure projects did not propose policy alternatives, Imamoglu is outlining social programs he wants to fund in Istanbul instead: the revitalization of poorer neighborhoods, increased access to kindergartens and earthquake preparedness. By pointing out the financial costs of the canal, Imamoglu can directly tie lack of funding for those social programs to Erdogan’s expensive love of megaprojects.

Imamoglu’s support has marked a new phase of opposition to the canal, adds Onur Akgul, an environmental activist who has been working against the project for the past three years. Now, with the mayor’s involvement, “people have more hope,” he says. “We can see this in the actual field mobilization in opposition to the project. We can see more than 100 organizations joining the coordination with Ya Kanal Ya Istanbul.”

Despite the outpouring of support, however, Imamoglu’s efforts to block construction of the canal have yet to yield concrete results. He withdrew from a cooperation protocol for the project that was signed by Istanbul’s previous mayor, who was a member of the AKP, yet it is unclear what kind of tangible impact that will have. The CHP also mounted a legal challenge to the canal’s oversight by the Transport and Infrastructure Ministry, arguing the municipal government should have control over the project. It was unanimously rejected by Turkey’s Constitutional Court.

But the fight could play out differently in the court of public opinion. One recent poll of Istanbul residents found that 72 percent of respondents were opposed to the project. The AKP, on the other hand, argues that because Erdogan won election while trumpeting the project, the public must support it.

The issue could become a focal point of the 2023 election, when parliament will also be up for grabs. While the president is limited to two five-year terms, Erdogan may still be eligible to run again, as his first term took place before the government changed to a presidential system following a 2017 constitutional referendum. Erdogan has not publicly announced his intentions for 2023, but it is unlikely he will withdraw from politics.

Erdogan and the AKP have been shaken by environmental protests before. In 2013, an urban development plan for Istanbul’s Gezi Park sparked a series of mass demonstrations and unrest that eventually forced the government to back down on its plans. The Ya Kanal Ya Istanbul coalition has echoes of that movement, and many of the same sections of Turkish society are involved. This time, however, they have a powerful ally who is forcing the issue.

Akgul says that if the CHP wants to challenge the AKP’s hold on power in 2023, “huge, sustainable public pressure would be the key.” Imamoglu’s continued high-profile opposition to the canal could do just that.


Source:Ocnus.net 2020

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