That bloody conflict was brought about by Western attempts to push the
Russian Fleet out of the Black Sea. Today, 154 years after the start of
the first Crimean War, could history be about to repeat itself?
The prospect of a new conflict on this Black Sea peninsula seemed
unreal on a beautiful late summer's afternoon. In Sevastopol's pretty
seaside park, close by the port which is still home to Russia's Black
Sea fleet, young and old appeared not to have a care in the world. Yet
tensions in the region are rising.
When Kruschev gave the Crimean peninsular to Ukraine in 1954 it was a
pretty meaningless gesture given that Ukraine was part of the Soviet
Union and under the Kremlin's control. But the majority of the two
million people who live on the peninsula are ethnic Russians who were
and remain loyal to Moscow, unlike the majority of Ukrainians who
were delighted to split from Russia in 1991 when the country became
independent. I lose count of the number of Russian flags I saw flying
in the streets of Sevastopol. By contrast, the yellow and blue national
colours of Ukraine were nowhere to be seen.
Ukraine has been in political paralysis for the past month since the
'Our Ukraine' party of the country's pro-western president Viktor
Yushchenko pulled out of the ruling coalition after the bloc led by
Yushchenko's bitter rival, the photogenic prime minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, sided with the opposition pro-Moscow faction.
This week Yuschenko dissolved parliament and called a general election
for December 7. The stakes for the future of the Crimea could not be
higher.
What is fuelling anti-Ukrainian and pro-separatist sentiments
is the determination of
Yuschenko to forge ahead with his plans for Nato membership. "The
Americans and their puppet Yushchenko want Ukraine in Nato and the
Russian Fleet to be booted out of Sevastopol," student Misha Lebedev
told me in a cafe off the city's main 'Lenina' street . "But here the
people will never allow that. If Ukraine joins Nato then Crimea will
leave Ukraine. It's as simple as that. We are Russians and we will
never accept that Russia is our enemy."
From Kiev, Yushchenko plays the wounded victim. "I am convinced,
deeply convinced that the democratic coalition was ruined by one thing
alone - human ambition," he said, pointing the finger of blame at Yulia
Tymoshenko as he announced what will be the country's third general
election in three years. "The ambition of one person. Thirst for power,
different values, personal interests taking precedence over national
interests."
But nearly everyone I spoke to in Sevastopol was of the same mind:
the West's desire to expand Nato to Russia's borders is seen as a
blatant example of imperialist aggression just as the British/French
attack on Sevastopol was seen in 1854. "Nato is about encircling
Russia. If they persist in this policy, there will be a war," warned
pensioner Alexander Petrov. "The Russian fleet will never leave
Sevastopol."
The best way to avoid a break-up of the Ukraine - and the very real
prospect of war - would be for western hawks to accept that Ukraine,
because of its internal divisions, will never be a suitable candidate
for membership of Nato. But last month's hardline anti-Russian speech
in Kiev by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband - in which he
reiterated Nato's promise made in April this year that both Ukraine and
Georgia would eventually join Nato - hardly augurs well.
On December 7 the dreams of the Nato expansionists may be dashed by the
Ukrainian people themselves. Like the great pragmatist Yulia
Tymoshenko, they may well decide that staying friends with Moscow is a
more attractive alternative than a second Crimean War and vote
accordingly.
