The increased cost of living and a struggling economy in Guinea are likely to drive a rise in strikes and protests in the six-month outlook. This is especially the case in mining, which accounts for 26% of GDP. Guinea is the world's biggest bauxite exporter, with an estimated quarter to half of global reserves, and is thought to have some of the world's largest undeveloped iron ore deposits.

Powerful unions believe the mining sector should make a bigger financial contribution, and have criticised the government's perceived weak stance on mining reform and failure to address inflation, which is around 20%. Workers at RusAl's Friguia alumina refinery have been on strike over pay and benefits since mid-December 2011. While RusAl claims it has drawn on stockpiles at ports, disruptions to exports are likely as the strike continues. Workers at BHP Billiton's Boffa-Santou-Houda bauxite exploration project started strike action on January 24 after union negotiations failed. The move contributed to BHP's announcement that it will cease the project on June 30 2012 and return its mining permits to the government.

Mining companies are also likely to be targeted by youths demanding jobs, development projects and power provision. Countrywide blackouts are being caused by a lack of capacity in the national grid, and many believe mining companies should contribute to the new power infrastructure. Risks of unrest are concentrated in regions where different ethnic groups are intertwined, such as Conakry, as well as the cities of Kissidougou and Nzerekore in the mining region Guinee Forestiere. On January 16, youths aggrieved with power cuts during the Africa Cup of Nations football coverage on television targeted Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinee (CBG) near its operations in Kamsar. After protesters blocked the bauxite railway to CBG and looted a police station, a heavy-handed security force response resulted in the death of one protester. From January 24-26 there were protests and rioting over power cuts in several cities including Conakry and Kindia. Further protests are likely to delay cargo at the Port of Conakry, where mineral resources are exported.