Energy model shows the fossil fuels combustion causes climate change and air pollution, and solution is energy transition.
At Climate Summit in Madrid, WHO expert Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum said the same sources cause air pollution and climate change. Two-third of outdoor air pollution and GHG are produced by burning fossil fuels the rest come from the natural sources. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, dust storms and meteorites are natural phenomena that can cause climate change and air pollution. Aerosols from anthropogenic or natural origin cause air pollution as well as climate change by scattering and absorbing radiations [UN 2019]. Fossil fuels produce heat trapping carbon emissions as well as air pollutants. There is more than 66% overlap between the causes of air pollution and climate change drivers. Indoor and outdoor air pollution kills more than 7 million people in a year and life or property losses due to climate change presents even more grave concern [Reuters 2019].
Air pollution affects human health & flora or fauna and Climate change has negatively impacts social and economic consequences. Real-time air pollution and climate change monitoring shows the more polluted regions are more victims of global warming. India and Pakistan rank in top ten air pollution and climate change affected nations. Heat waves blow in summer and smog overcasts in winter months. Smog is considered fifth season in Lahore and New Delhi. Pakistan was on 8th climate change hit country in last decade that is now on 5th position after Puerto Rico, Myanmar, Haiti and Philippines. Climate change and air pollution are accelerating despite planting billions of trees. Average Air Quality Index (AQI) of PM2.5 in Lahore was 233 on 25 November 2019 and actual levels were 427 in Mazang, 412 in Shadman, 330 on Eden Garden roundabout and 426 in Provincial Assembly Lahore. AQI in Lahore and New Delhi fluctuate between 200 and 400 during winter months. Maximum AQI in Lahore and New Delhi exceed 500 level during stubble burning days. Lahore, New Delhi and Dhaka are often on first, second and third positions in World AQI ranking reports.
Air pollution levels in Lahore and New Delhi keep on breaking their own earlier records every year. Smoke and fog in Himalayan valleys mix to form smog. Air Quality Index (AQI) in Lahore and New Delhi were recorded to be 447 and 556 in second week of November 2019. Schools and colleges were closed twice when AQI peaked at 565 in Lahore and 999 in New Delhi on 3rd and 15th November this year [Dawn 2019]. Smog aggravates health problems such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, respiratory problems and itchy eyes. Pitch black smog in South Asia arises out of local way of life (fire kilns, combustion engines, fireworks and stubble burning). Residents of New Delhi (Delhites) and Lahore (Lahorite) run out of fresh air due to thick layer of black smog in winter months every year. New Delhi and Lahore have moderate air quality index (AQI) (100-200) from January to September every year. The AQI rises suddenly during October to December to terribly highest levels every year. Media pundits call these months to be fifth season of India and Pakistan during which both cities become almost gas chamber with toxic smog. PM2.5 AQI in reached 999 in New Delhi and 534 in Lahore on 3 November 2019. Rains and high winds reduced AQI for few days then again it escalated to 822 in New Delhi and 512 in Lahore on 15 November 2019. As the smog overwhelms in South Asia rain and high winds start. The cause of this smog is stubble burning practices of farmers [News Desk 2019].
AQI is calculated by government agencies to warn the public on how polluted currently the air is or it will be in next few days. As the AQI increases the public is likely to experience adverse health effects. The AQI currently takes into account six major pollutants, PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, SO2, O3 and its severity is marked by five colors. It is calculated by hourly readings of pollutant sensors. The AQI is a piecewise linear function of pollutant concentration in air that may be calculated by following equation [EPA 2013]
Where I = AQI, C = the pollutant concentration, CL = the concentration break point (£ C), CH = the concentration breakpoint (³ C), IL = the index breakpoint corresponding to CL and IH = the index breakpoint corresponding to CH. If any monitor on a site records average 24-hour PM2.5 concentration to be 12mg/m3 then its AQI is {(50 -0)/(12 – 0)}(12 – 0) + 0 = 50 [David 2009].
In Pakistan, PM2.5 pollution may be attributed to vehicles (30%), fire kilns (35%) and industries (35%). There are estimated 3,000 fire kilns in Pakistan out of which only 495 use zig zag technologies. Hardly one out of 70 industries in Gujranwala, 20 out of 34 industries in Lahore and 23 out of 32 industries in Sheikhupura use scrubbers to reduce their air pollutions. Punjab Government has declared to shut down 400 fire kilns around Lahore, not using zig zag technology, from 15 November to 31 December 2019. These measures can reduce local emissions but not transboundary pollutants.
In India, 41% of PM2.5 air pollution is caused by vehicles, 21.5% by dust, 18% by industries, and the rest 19.5% by local stubble burning [Vishwa 2018]. There are 7 million motorbikes and 8 million cars in New Delhi. When Indian Supreme Court accused incumbents to be interested in gimmicks, not concrete steps to control smog, the authorities diverted 37 flights and asked public to use odd or even number cars in one day to reduce traffic emitted PM2.5 pollution. Power companies were asked to not interrupt power supplies to discourage use of diesel generators. Hindu festival Diwali explosives and Indian farmers 31,237 stubble burning practices are cause of toxic smog in India.
Coincidence of Diwali and stubble burning in India suddenly rises AQI in 14 cities around New Delhi. AQI first increases first in New Delhi then after a few hours in Lahore. AQI of Lahore is usually higher than normal that exceeds danger level due to down winds. Indian media attributed sudden 62% dip in AQI in New Delhi to high winds [Dipu 2019]. Pakistan had no PM2.5 sensors and MET Department used not to keep track record of AQI of all pollutants. United States of America installed four PM2.5 sensors in her Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar conciliates which show online real time AQI parameters. A snapshot of AQI of PM2.5 on 2 November 2019 for Lahore and New Delhi territories is shown in Fig.1.
PM2.5 AQI in Peshawar and Lahore rose to 222 and 242 (388 next day), and the same surged to 829 on 2 November and 999 the next day, when India shutdown schools in New Delhi and Judges started urging incumbents to take concrete action against air pollution [Ali 2019; Staff Reporter2019]. Severity of AQI PM2.5 and PM10 in 14 Indian cities around Delhi is shown in Fig.1.
AQI Indices of all pollutants in New Delhi on 3/11/2019
Fig.1 AQI of New Delhi and major nearby cities at 11AM on 3/11/2019
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Rains and winds sweep away air pollutants, yet their effects are lesser on PM2.5 than others. Thunder clouds and winds on 7 November 2019 washed away most pollutants but their impact was least on PM2.5 pollutant concentrations in New Delhi. Wind flows have better effect on haze than rains alone. During haze of Malaysia in 1997-98, it was seen the rains had practically little effect on haze caused by 9.7 million hectare forest fire in Indonesia. Stubble burning practices produce more PM10 pollutants than PM2.5 emitted by vehicles, power plants, industries and fire kilns. Waste burning practices in cities also add to air pollution. A toxic black smog has overwhelmed New Delhi and its effects are seen hundred miles away in Lahore. Haze has blanketed Lahore and situation is even worse in New Delhi. One day life in New Delhi, without mask, is worse than smoking 50 cigarettes per day. The situation is slightly less severe in Lahore, yet very close to black carbon apocalyptic outbreak. Political pundits say the India locked down 8 million Kashmiris in their homes and nature has locked down 20 million Indians in their homes [Doyle 2019]. They have locked down themselves in their homes from fear of suffocation.
Indian smog is visible from space, 37 flights rerouted as pilots cannot see land through dark smog, but not visible to incumbents in New Delhi. Pakistan asked India to launch a campaign against stubble burning in farms but they did not respond as they know cause of dark smog is in India and Pakistan might not put up case under Polluter Pays Principle for long range pollutants arising out of New Delhi and its 13 neighboring cities. Waters, winds and extremism come into Pakistan from India. Imran Khan sincerely wanted to solve all bilateral issues to increase mutual cooperation, but India denied dishonestly. Whatsoever, toxic smog in New Delhi is harbinger of health crisis in SAARC countries as well the world [James 2019].
Urban air pollution causes 22,000 premature deaths among adults and 700 deaths of young children every year. However, indoor air pollution kills 30,000 children per year [World Bank, 2006]. “A medical study conducted in 2002 on the health of 1000 traffic policemen, showed that about 80% of traffic policemen had chronic ear-nose-throat (ENT) problems and about 40% showed lung problems”. Another phenomenon is winter fog- caused that causes eyes irritation in sensitive subjects. The health impact of winter fog is estimated for urban population to be Rs. 25.7 billion each year. A study in Pakistan demonstrated that a 40 per cent reduction in rice crop yields occurs due to air pollutants [Hameed 2009]. In case of Pakistan, the World Bank has estimated that the mean annual damage to the environment is 6% of GDP, or Rs. 365 billion per annum. Damages from indoor pollution have been estimated at Rs. 67 billion while damage from urban air pollution has been estimated at Rs. 65 billion or about 1% of GDP [World Bank, 2006]. India causes smog in SAARC countries, who under polluter pays principle should be bound to pay at least health expenses of affected countries.
Chronic diseases account for 42% (588,000/1,392,000 in 2005) deaths in Pakistan. Food related disease will decrease but chronic diseases and diabetes based diseases will increase. Deaths by chronic diseases may be reduced by nutrient food, exercise and healthy activities. World community has ended polio that yet we have in Pakistan. WHO epidemic diseases include Chikungunya, Cholera, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Hendra virus infection, Influenza (pandemic, seasonal, zoonotic), Lassa fever, Marburg virus disease, Meningitis, MERS-CoV, Monkeypox, Nipah virus infection, Plague, Rift Valley fever, SARS, Smallpox, Tularaemia and Yellow fever and Zika virus disease. There is risk of return of ancient diseases after meltdown of snow graves in Arctic, Antarctic, Siberian and Himalayan regions.
PM1.5 and PM10 should not exceed 35 mg/m3 and 150 mg/m3 in 24 hours. PM2.5 and PM10 reached 242 and 484 in Lahore on 2 November 2019 [Shahab 2019]. US Embassies in Pakistan have installed real time PM2.5 sensors in Karachi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Islamabad and Peshawar. PM2.5 concentration vary from 341 to 484 in Lahore to 190 to 221 in Peshawar. Met department claims the PM2.5 varied from 247 to 321 in Lahore on 3 November 2019 whereas Real Time Monitor showed it 321 to 484 at 11AM on 3 November 2019. According to EPA/JICA 2001 Report the concentration of PM10 was 895 in 2001 and the observation shows the smog level has increased over last two decades. Pakistan must install Real Time PM10 and CO monitors to get the real picture.
PM2.5 level reached 388 mg/m3 in Lahore on 3 November 2019. PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations reached 999mg/m3 and 999 mg/m3 levels in New Delhi at 7AM on 3 November 2019. Actual levels of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations might be higher the instruments do not record above 999. All countries have their own Ambient Air Quality Standards (AAQS), the WHO limits on air pollution are good guidelines for every country. SAARC countries have set their own limits on air pollutants depending on their geographies. India has set PM10 limit lesser than Pakistan that often reaches 999 in autumn every year. India has set PM2.5 limit more realistically that 2.5 times higher than WHO limits [Qurratulain 2019].
According to World Health Organization (WHO), “Major components of particulate matter (PM) are sulfate, nitrates, ammonia, sodium chloride, black carbon, mineral dust and water. It consists of a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. PM are further classified as PM2.5 (smaller than 2.5 mm) and PM10 (smaller than 10 2.5 mm). PM pollution accuses acute lower respiratory infections, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. Ozone is a major factor in asthma morbidity and mortality, while nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide also can play a role in asthma, bronchial symptoms, lung inflammation and reduced lung function… the air pollution is an important environmental risk with health. By reducing levels of air pollution, the countries can reduce the burden of the disease of the race, cardiac disorder, cancer of lung, and the chronic and acute respiratory diseases, including asthma. The lower the levels of the air pollution are, the more health cardiovascular and respiratory of the population will be is better, long and short-term. WHO air directives of quality: The total update 2005 provide an evaluation of the effects of health of the air pollution and thresholds for the health-harmful levels of pollution. In 2016, 91% of the population of the world lived in the places where WHO air directives of quality which the levels were not puts. Ambient (external air pollution) in the two rural cities and sectors was estimated to cause 4.2 million death premature in the whole world in 2016…
Approximately 91% of these deaths premature occurred in bottom and average countries of income, and the greatest number in WHO South-East Asia and Peaceful Western. The policies and the investments supporting a cleaner transport, houses of ideal efficiency, production of electricity, an industry and a better management of municipal waste would reduce the principal sources of external air pollution. In addition to external air pollution, the smoke of interior is a serious medical risk for approximately 3 billion people who make cook and heat their houses with the biomass, the fuels of kerosene and coal… The external air pollution is an important problem of health environmental affecting each one in country of bottom, means, and of high-income. It was estimated that the air pollution (external) ambient in the two rural cities and sectors causes 4.2 million death premature in the whole world per annum in 2016 due to the exposure to PM2.5 causing the cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and of cancers…. WHO estimates that in 2016, some 58% of the pollution-related deaths premature of surrounding air were due to the cardiac disorder and the ischaemic races, whereas 18% of the deaths were due to the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the acute lower respiratory infections respectively, and 6% of the deaths were due to the cancer of lung [WHO 2018].
At the end it is to suggest to incumbents in India and Pakistan to arrange community buses for school children to minimize rush of cars on roads. Government officials be strictly warned to not use official cars to transport their children to schools, colleges and universities. I see a swarm of green plate cars in Islamabad and Lahore dropping their children in schools. A bus can pick fifty students who otherwise use 50 cars. Rampant rise in gasoline fired motorbikes in cities, towns and villages is also a grave concern. Use either solar charged electric bikes and cars or hydrogen fueled vehicles to reduce emissions. Fossil fuels have given health, wealth and comforts on expense of air pollution and climate change. It is time to switch to cleans energy sources to save the planet. Politicians should listen to farmers and arrange collection of stubble for local power generation with this biomass deploying carbon capture and storage facilities. There is about 500 million tons of stubble in India and 80 million tons in Pakistan. This huge amount of biomass can produce tens of TWh of seasonal electricity. Blaming each other every year is not solution of the problem as India has no control over natural winds transporting smog into Pakistan. Superposition of usual vehicle, factories and fire kiln emissions with Diwali and stubble burning emissions during winter months aggravates the air pollution. Cold weather does not allow updraft and pollutants remain suspended on human level heights.
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