One of the consequences of this war will be the breakup of the Russian Federation. In fact, the process may already be starting. One signal is the possible attempt on the life of Nikolai Patrushev. Perhaps we had a coup attempt that failed, or he has gotten too much attention.
Regardless the knives, or in this case the poison, came out to the party. To anybody who has been paying attention, this is hardly a surprise. However, one thing is significant in the report on General SVR on Telegram:
The President was informed, one might say the last, when Patrushev’s life was no longer in danger. Who is behind the assassination attempt, what are the motives and how it became possible in general to organize an actually completed assassination attempt on a representative of such a high level of power, remains to be seen. But, something tells me, this is only the beginning of a big redistribution in the elites.
They are correct, this is the official beginning of the troubles. And as always, there is more. In a Twitter feed for the Chechen resistance, we learned that:
Speaker of the battalion named after Sheikh Mansura Islam Belokiev said that the people of Ichkeria have started preparations for hostilities in Chechnya.
Ichkeria is divided into 3 fronts and 16 sectors. There is an intensive collection of information on cities where the Russians are deployed for attacks.
Some of these people have been getting combat experience in Ukraine. So we may be heading for a third Chechen war, and in this case, a civil war. This also explains Ramzan Kadirov worries. Remember he owes Vladimir Putin a lot, and his people are enforcers.
Ramzan Kadyrov warmly thanked Putin for the opportunity to “take part in the holy struggle against Satanism.”
We have seen plenty of evidence that this is a religious war. It’s framed as the final battle between good and evil. Of course, the West and Democracy are demonic forces.
This is not just Kadyrov. It is also the Church, the Russian Orthodox Church. This language is part of Russian propaganda. It’s also the Millenarian ideology of the state.
However, Kadyrov also expects more from his supreme leader: “We are ready to go further on orders, to easily take Kyiv and the NATO countries … Just one order from our President, and we are ready to smash the false-democratic, pseudo-liberal and military-barbaric campaign of the Western states, corrupting the world community in an attempt to subdue the entire globe.
Here is a direct connection to MAGA. Here is also your relation to the European far right that’s not fond of democratic norms either. This is the conspiracy of the great reset and the deep antisemitic speech. Because that global government is led by Jews.
I am making you aware of these connections because Russians are not isolated, and Russia has spent a lot of money and time in both internal and external efforts. So start thinking of this in how many ways we have a global movement connected to Russia.
Interestingly, the aggressive pathos (keep me seven!) in Kadyrov easily coexists with specific defensive proposals: “I believe that in the mountains of the Chechen Republic, on the southern borders of Russia, air defense systems are more in demand than ever … Anything can be expected from the enemy at any moment so we need pre-emptive tactical measures.”
This is not just a western attack. His troops have fought Chechens in the field in Ukraine. He knows these rebels want Chechnya back. So at this point, the third Chechen war is already underway, and it started north of Kyiv.
Then there is this, which is of interest as well!
Okay, Google, how to separate from the Russians? Nothing unusual, it’s just that Orkostan is so bad that activists from Buryatia, Mordovia and Tatarstan wrote a letter to Biden asking for help to separate.
So while this particular letter might be a rumor, troops from places like Dagestan and Buryatia are joining refuseniks. Partly because the equipment they are issued is substandard. To be fair, they and the Mobiki from the Donbas are considered disposable.
Sharing this because there is something else that it is starting already. It’s tied with the economic collapse. People in highly industrialized areas of the country are reading this in their local media.
Propaganda began to prepare the population for a major crisis. One of the most popular newspapers, Komsomolskaya Pravda, predicted which regions would suffer the most. First of all, these are regions with developed industry. The better the region felt before the sanctions, the more painful the crisis will hit the labor market, the KP expert warns. This is the Urals, the Volga region, the North-West of the country.
We also know Putin admitted to Bloomberg how sanctions are hitting the country.
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is facing “colossal challenges” in the high-tech sector, an unusually frank admission of the difficulties the Kremlin is experiencing as sanctions begin to bite.
This is an astounding admission from a government that, until now, has been whistling past the graveyard. For the first time, Putin is admitting the sanctions are seriously biting.
So how are our military bloggers reacting? Igor Girkin as always, is blaming Moscow for not going for a general mobilization. He is a veteran of the Chechen wars; so far, I am shocked he has not mentioned the coming internal troubles. He is also more dour than usual.
However, this second military blogger is going there. And it is downright dark. I think it’s important to realize that a breakdown of the Russian Federation will likely include violence, and the Western nightmare, loose nukes.
Putin’s administration, of course, is brilliantly destroying the Russian Federation using Western decolonization methods. And they work with the West in a tuning fork. As if everything was originally prepared for this:
Yes, he just accused the President of the Russian Federation of high treason. It’s not just the Russian officer I cited here. Or, for that matter, Girkin. Russian nationalists are going to blame Putin for this. And they are now starting to tell us he is a western agent.
I will select relevant sections of a very long post that speak to the tensions.
Through media coverage, reports of awardees, staged meetings with the wounded, it is inspired that “most of the warring are Buryats, Dagestanis,” etc., that there is an absolute lie
He has a point, it’s not just ethnic minorities. However, the vast majority of the casualties are from ethnic minorities. Increasingly these same troops are starting to refuse service in Ukraine because they are facing large casualties.
In order to prevent the losses of precious Buryatchens and to avoid responsibility for high losses of l/s in an unexpectedly severe conflict in frontal attacks deliberately put tens of thousands of Russian “mobics” from Donbass, with zero coverage of this in the media
Again, he does have a point. In his mind Donbas Mobiki are Slavs. They may not be full Russians. Forgive me for the slur because Russians use it, and it matters to understand this. Donbas is inhabited by lesser Russians, which those in the center refer to little Russians. This goes to the 19th century and the colonization of Ukraine. But they are Slavs.
The Buryats are ethnic minorities from the East. They are descendants of the Mongols. Dagestan is in the central Caucasus. For the nationalists, these are not true Russians. How bad is Russian Racism? Well, you can refuse to rent to anybody, not Slav, and there is systemic racism across the breadth of the state. Why do these minorities sometimes see the army as the only available job.
It dehumanizes the liberated Russian Donbass, makes them consumables and checks the reaction of nationalsmen, grant suckers to their losses — of course, there is no reaction
Liberated Russians mean Slavs; even if not equal to those in Moscow, they are still Slavs. This is not something this poster likes. It’s racism, which is one of the reasons for this.
Far-right politics and nazism are integral to modern-day Russia, including the ideology of purity of blood and race. So bear that in mind.
The Akhmat regiment is given the main media role in the war, priority support, safe directions; the flow of volunteers, even Russians, closes to Kadyrov; Kadyrovites attribute to themselves cities taken by mobiks and NM; bezdar Khodakovsky apologizes at gunpoint
These are Chechens, what the rest of us see as the Tik Tok brigade. Not because they are Chechen, but because even in the west, we can see it. These are not the best troops, but they have quite the media presence.
Their videos circulate on Tik Tok, and they are the but of many a joke, even in the west. I mean, shooting traffic lights seems to be a favorite hobby of these soldiers.
It shows the nationals how it could be if they had their own Kadyrov; gives a center for crystallization of the multinational agenda 2.0, there is a powerful anti-Russian political center of the Russian Federation
Consider this the heart of the complaint. It’s giving internal colonies ideas. What if other regions had their own units? And that is starting. It could be the beginnings of dissolution.
Of course, this benefits their main enemy (the United States) and her lackeys, the European Union.
The West, seeing the weak spot and the picture “Natsmen are fighting, the Russians do nothing” created by the special operation, launches its narratives on decolonization
This is not new. Though not as deep as we should have, we had these discussions in graduate school. And these days, there is historiography on the last empire and its colonies: Russia. Decolonization is a serious field of study.
This is not a plot, but for many Russians, academic work is a western government conspiracy. It’s not unlike perceiving critical race theory, a law school subject matter, as a conspiracy at your local school board.
Gives an ideological rear to nationals, warmed up from discontent and sense of self-importance, provides systemic points of crystallization
-Putin afraid of the disloyalty of the Nazismen and spitting on the loyalty of the Russians, introduces the Order 33% (now it is already turning into 50% and 66%), draws invented feats for the Nazis, dirty everything with billboards with black faces “Magomed Rusorezoev is a hero of the Russian Federation, (editorial note, for many White Russians this is a problem. Racism is deep)
Further strengthens foreigners in the opinion that only they are fighting, this gives an additional influx to Western decolonization projects
Foreigners are residents of internal colonies. These are the non Slav regions. That he speaks of them in this way is revealing. They are not fellow Russians. This is exactly how colonies are treated. So he is critical of decolonization, while engaging in colonial speech.
I did not make this up. It’s a lack of self awareness. Other European powers had the same paternalistic attitude towards their colonies, doubled with fear and hate. We are seeing this now with Russia as the pressure grows for a breakup. Or to be more precise, for the process that started at the end of the USSR to resume.
Putin creates national battalions, turning the Russian Federation into a confederation, strengthening the national republics and giving their elites experience in creating sovereign armies
This is exactly the fear. That these proto-states will break away. It’s the concern that the dissolution of the Soviet Union will be followed by the balkanization of the Russian Federation. He sees it, and voices it. We see it, because all the signals are falling in place.
I can see the troubles. So can he. Of course we will disagree as to the reasons behind this. He says this because he believes it. As always, Russia never sees the reasons for things in their own actions or history. It is always, and I mean this, always an outside force.
In general, the Putin Administration itself initiated Multinational 2.0 in the CBO (Ukraine War), the West and the separatists use it, and the Putin for their activity does not increase the role of Russians and does not consolidate the country, but gives internal states, foreigners even more subjectivity and powers. It turns out to be a resonance. It can only end in collapse. To do this, the West, through all funds and intelligence, is trying to push up Kiriyenko the Israeler, the chief architect of Multinational 2.0.
The Ukraine war was planned to destroy Russia. It is cooperation between Vladimir Putin and Western governments. Conspiracy is integral to the state. Yet, this is setting the ground for an internal fight, perhaps civil war. The possible attempt on Patrushev may mark the beginning of the troubles., at least officially.