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Research Last Updated: Oct 5, 2017 - 9:45:55 AM


Hydrocarbon Honey, Climate Change Impats, Social Costs and Human Response
By Dr Nasrullah Khan, CIIT 2/10/17
Oct 4, 2017 - 10:30:13 AM

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Sun is the ultimate energy source sustaining life on the planet. Trees, plants and grasses convert solar energy into foods and fruits to drive the life cycle. Herbivores eat grass, carnivores eat herbivore and omnivores eat herbivores as well as carnivores. Energy thrives on energy as life thrives on life. Light, heat and electricity are three forms of energies derived from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are a chemical form of solar energy stored in hydrocarbon bonds. Subsurface dead trees and plants under high pressure and temperature are slowly converted into coal, gas and oil in zillions of years. Natures stores the fossil fuels deep in earth to maintain carbon equilibrium in the atmosphere. Humankind has been using wood and dung for cooking and winter heating requirements. Humans domesticated horses to travel and cattle to drive carts and water wells. A few centuries ago engineers invented coal fired steam engine, internal combustion engine, gas turbine and water wheel to generate electricity. Oil was first discovered in 1859 and electricity in 1880. Telecom, computing, mobile and internet technologies evolved in 1900s, 1960s, 1980s and 1990s. Age of the internet of things (IOT) is same as university students.

We have lost the names of great scholars who invents words and wheels which are the basis of all modern technologies. We do not understand the ancient scrips of Indus Valley, which might tell how the Indus Valley collapsed thousands years ago. Nature hides surplus wastes in layers of earth and times. We discovered the surplus hydrocarbon waste and started burning it in the air. A grand energy transition (GET) from the mire to fire and wave to the wire is a long journey. Electric lines have enabled us to convert the remote fossil fuel’s energy from chemical to electric forms to transmit it to populate cities. An adage goes “no transition without transmission”, so current, voltage and frequency competitions are transforming electric grids into smart grid, a second last milestone before the super-smart grids using both chemical and electrical energies. Integration of electric vehicles has reduced the burden of spinning reserves.  A few kegs of oil can drive an air conditioned car in a few hours to distant places, which used be travelled in several days. An airplane can fly us to far off places in hours, which used to be travelled in months and years. Power plants, automobiles and airplanes facilitate us at expense of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Millions of flights worldwide inject green gases in heart of atmosphere. Ozone depletion and climate changes are forcing us all to change our fossil fuels based energy policies. Nature inflicts wide range of extreme events leading to change of temperature.

Food, Fuels and Electricity
We use food, electric and fossil fuel energies. Global annual food energy consumption is 6.35% of total energy consumption in various forms. Global food energy consumption is 1/3rd of global electric energy consumptions and 1/16th of total energy consumption in all forms. Pakistan, at a rate of 2.65kWh or 2,280kcal per person per day, consumes annually 200TWh (17.19MTOE) food energy, which is 2.87% of global food consumption. Our people are 207 million, which are 2.5% of global population. Pakistan annually consumes 55.28TWh (4.73MTOE) electric and 814TWh (70MTOE) fuel energies, which are 0.24% of global electricity and 0.70% of global fuel energy consumptions. Pakistan, like other SAARC countries, consumes food energy 3 to 4 times more than electric energy.

According to REN21 (23.4PWh) and IEA (24.3PWh) the annual global electricity consumption is 24PWh (2GTOE). World population, at an average rate of 2,280kcal (2.65kWh) per person per day, annually consumes 6.97PWh (602MTOE) food energy, which is 29.4% of global electric energy consumption. Annual global fuel (coal, oil, gas) energy production is 13.37GTOE (155.48PWh), and annual global energy consumption is 10GTOE (116PWh), which is 12% more than annual fuel energy consumption. Global food energy consumption is 602MTOE (6.97PWh), which is 6% of global fuel energy consumption. Global kWh/capita, population and energy consumption increased by 10%, 27% and 39% from 1990 to 2008, which might have doubled in 2017 compared to 1990. The global energy mix consists of 24% gas, 33% oil, 30% coal, 7% hydroelectricity, 4% nuclear and 2% renewable energy. Fossil fuels and renewable energy shares are so far 87% and 13% respectively.

Annual global energy consumption in the forms of food (6.97PWh), electricity (24PWh) and fuels (116PWh) is 147PWh, which at an average efficiency of 30% equals to 490PWh input energy. Pakistan consumes 18.70% food energy, 5.14% on electricity and 76.16% fuel energy. World community consumes 3.7% food energy, 13% electricity and 83.3% fuel energy.

According to WEA, the annual solar energy  potential is 1343PWh (115GTOE), which is 36% of estimated solar energy potential. Solar energy incident on land and ocean is 89PW per second, which annually becomes 2.8YWh (240 OTOE) [Octillion =1027), which is 49 million times more than total energy consumption on the planet. Alone Pakistan has annual 2.9TW solar potential, which is 6-7kWh/m2/day)  or 1700-2200kWh/m2/y.

2.1 Energy Conservation Opportunities (ECOs)
Energy conservation means a reduction in energy consumption, by reducing input and increasing output, without compromising quality or quantity of production.  Various aspects of energy conservation include economy, environment and depletion of fossil fuels. Motor drives, lights and industries have the potential of 75, 15 and 10TWh of energy savings. We can conserve energy by recycling waste, using smart technologies, waste heat utilization, sensible use of proper energy, smart choice fuel, cogeneration, daylight saving, worker training, and public awareness media programs. Minor ECOs include plugging leakages, medium ECOs mean small scale changes and major ECOs include heavy investments on machinery replacement and retrofitting.

Energy management involves control of demand and supply to maximize productivity and comfort, and minimize cost and enhance pollution, with effective use of energy. Demand side management (DSM) and supply side management (SSM) is essential for competitive market. Energy policy refers to an officially declared guideline for the purpose of planning and actions. Energy strategy refers to the selection of a particular course based on available alternatives under given constraints. Energy planning refers to detailed formulation of various actions in a given time frame to achieve the objectives. Energy policy and strategy, supply guidelines for planning. Trump has a coal power policy, climate change denial strategy and shale gas and oil drilling planning. Energy Conservation Act involves all the sectors of the economy. Bureau of Energy efficiency (BEE) lays down standards of energy consumption, appliances labeling and industrial processes.

BEE may start renewable energy incentives programs and energy conserving programs. Electrical ECOs may include switching off loads by hand instead of remote control as standby appliances keep on wasting 10 to 25% of energy in off mode. Reduce peak demand by switching of luxury loads during peak times. Apply home energy management (HEM) programs to automate energy conservation through smart devices. Electrical furnaces may be operated in more shifts to reduce power demand during peak hours.  Day and night shifts, distribute load to off peak hours. Utilities may install shunt capacitors and static var compensators and on-load tap changers. Replace old appliance with more efficient ones in the market. Change control and protection schemes using smart devices. Deploy harmonic filters to improve electric power quality.

Climate Change Challenge
Climate change drives the hurricanes, cold and heat waves. To slow down the climate change process, we have to reduce GHG emissions, population growth and comforts. Driving an air conditioned car, remember it is heating the planet. We are increasing wealth for our future dear ones and polluting the environment wherein they would live.  We humans, not fishes, who pollute the waters wherein they live. We can survive without electricity for years, without food for days and without water for hours, but we need fresh air every second. Rampant rise in fossil fuel consumption pollutes air and increases GHG emissions. Energy thrives on energy as money begets money. High energy consumptions produce more GHG emissions as higher investments earn more profits. Population growth, economic booms and high energy consumptions are the drivers of climate change inflicting cold and heat waves. It is high noon of oil and gas, noon of coal, dawn of renewable energies.

This planet is a global village where we all have to live serenely. If a few elites make corruption the way of life, then civilized citizens cannot survive.  President Trump, by retreating Parris Accord and reversing energy transition, is doing the same, what a drunken madman does on the street.  According Helena Wright, Donald Trump is a threat to the survival of life on the planet. Impacts are beyond control with 2ºC temperature rise, which is likely exceed 3ºC due to Trump’s effect. It is time to align against his policies. On one hand, he refutes climate change, on the other hand, wants to impose bans on climate change driven emigrations. The world is racing toward the slow marching distant apocalyptic mass extinction. There is a competition between earlier coming of nuclear winter and global warming. Nuclear saber rattling in America and war mongering attitude in North Korea is looming nuclear annihilation threats. Scientists worry the mass extinction might start by 2100 but world nuclear extermination looks more probable. It is responsibility of voters to choose moderate politicians not extremists, and is the responsibility of scientists to sort out climate change mitigation.

We have emitted 1540 billion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere - deducting forests and ocean uptake - 850 billion tons CO2 is present in the atmosphere. Since the industrial revolution to today, we have emitted CO2, which is produced by burning a 72 foot square, 240,000 miles tall solid coal tower. As long as global consensus is under debate we can convert CO2 into methane, ethanol or gasoline by recycling carbon satisfying our addiction to fossil fuels. Plants and trees use 8 photons to convert one molecule of CO2 into carbon and oxygen. Photocatalysts can convert CO2 into hydrocarbon fuels as the plants use photosynthesis phenomenon. Photochemistry, long life batteries and fast chargers for pure electric vehicles (PEV) are the Lexis Nexus.


Environmental Pollution
Haze, smog and plastics are major pollutants in air, land and oceans. Carbon black (black body) particles sit on glaciers to expedite ice meltdown. Micrometer size particles go into the lungs and stay there. Plastic particles after breakdown reach our lungs and stomachs through breath and food chain systems. Marine species eats plastics and die of entanglements. Fish x-rays show existence of five to 20 pieces their body, which reach our body through food chain systems.  Air, water and food are polluted, contaminated and poisoned. Water bottles were commercialized yesterday, fresh Swiss air is being sold in bottles and taxes are being proposed for use of winds (wind turbines) and light (photovoltaic). Fresh air cans are sold in China like cola and 7-up cans. One tin of air, depending upon size and country, costs $10 to $60. A more common size is BaanfAir3, which has 3 liter air. It costs $19 for 80 fresh air breathes. This business started with sale of plastic bags filled with air as a joke in 2014. A Chinese billionaire sold 3 million fresh air tins in three days.  Pakistan can do this business by packing fresh airs of swat valley and Kashmir. China and India are paying the price of industrialization, but we being influenced by the downhill waters and winds.

People use trees, out and indoor filters for clean air. According to American Lungs Association 4 out 10 people face ozone and pollution problems. A 7 meter tall tower vacuum cleaner uses 1400W electricity to clean 30,000m3 air. Smog free tower sprays positive ions in the air, which attach pollutants and concentrate on the negative electrode. This tower converts particles in 1000m3 air into a crystal. Trees convert CO2 into oxygen and this tower into pearls. Two big sources of air pollutions are GHG emissions from thermal power plants, road transport, air conditioners, industries and waste heaps. Suspended micrometer particles of particulate matter are created during construction work, fossil fuel combustion, wild fires, roadside dust and decomposition of waste. A petrol engine emits 22kg CO2 in 100km distance. A CNG vehicle emits 16.3kg of CO2 in same distance, which is 21% lesser than gasoline. The best way to decrease environmental pollution is to reduce, reuse and recycle things. RRR is most narrated expression as reality has no expiry date. China and India each decided to finish 4 to 5 power plants near their capitals to reduce pollution.

The government may make laws to force odd number vehicle owners to drive on odd days and even number vehicle owners to drive on even days to reduce traffic rush on roads, though some owners have both odd and even number cars. Supply best quality air masks to traffic police constables and automate traffic signals. Ban the use of luxury diesel vehicles (>2000CC) to reduce GHG emissions.  Impose high tax on entry of large vehicles in cities, especially trucks. Convert petrol taxis and government diesel vehicles on CNG and stop entry of old vehicles in big cities. Control use of gas generators in homes to reduce GHG emission and noise pollution. Ban the open burning of crop and urban waste in the country to reduce haze and smog. Promote polluter pays principle to reduce air pollution and water contamination.  Conduct vacuum cleaning of roads to reduce 10m size particles. Ban the transport of mud, waste, cement and pebbles in uncovering trucks, especially between 6 am and 11pm. Cover construction site to contain spread of pollution. Convert waste into fertilizer instead of burning in the open air. Use natural refrigerants in air conditioners and refrigerators instead of outdated CFCs. Promote the use of bicycle and build their dedicated lines. In case of severe haze and smog, use silver iodide for artificial rains to reduce air pollution. Plant trees around homes on streets to mitigate local energy consumptions. Ban the cutting of trees during construction of roads and homes. Promote tree planting in the country by giving incentives to farmers and prizes to individuals.

Public may improve air quality by using trickle vents in homes and offices. Use an air mask and filters to clean the air. Open your doors and windows to ventilate the rooms instead of using the air conditioner.  Use double glazing windows and intelligent glasses to control the light and heat flow. Reduce use of machines, electric iron and refrigerators, which produce heat during operation. Plant trees around your home and on rooftop to increase greenery and grow vegetables and flowers. Use high efficiency, indoor air filters (like HEFA) to remove 10m size particles in your home. Use mosquito electrocution tubes to reduce insect bites. Humidity, dust on curtains, carpets and dinner sets as well as paints, detergents and acids pollute your home. Use candles and salt lamps, instead of incandescent lamps, to ionize air to clean it. Use activated carbon charcoal in fish aquariums and fireplaces in homes, offices and public places to clean air from poisonous particles. Plant sieves, rubber plant, money plant and lady palm, filter indoor air and decorate homes. Walk in open air, use cycle instead of the car and install solar panels on rooftops. Two wheel drive uses more energy than four wheel drive. Sprinkle water on nearby plants and air to reduce air pollution. Reducing water wastage as coal power plants produce electricity, which drive the motor pumps to fetch water through pipelines. Daily use of bicycle for 8 miles distance annually saves 900kg CO2 emissions. Respect every cyclist as great national hero. Divide waste into plastics and else for proper disposal. Throw waste in dustbins not on roads or in water streams. Remember the golden rule to reduce, recycle and reuse.

Environmental pollutions include air pollution, water contamination, dead animal foods, genetically modified organisms (GMO), noise, RF radiations, radioactive and biochemical waste. There is no safe place on the planet, everywhere, visible or invisible pollution is always around you. Environmentalists use the air quality index (AQI) to determine the level of air pollution. Pollution is considered minimum for AQI between 0 and 50, moderate between 51 and 100 and dangerous beyond 301. Air quality index of Lahore was reported to be 77.1 in August 2017. Environmental issues are increasing public health expenditures, which after health and education privatization has become a major concern. A shortage of vitamin D and rise of pollution is increasing lung diseases. Contaminated waters have increased number of hepatitis patients in last two decades. According to BBC report 1 out 10 persons in Pakistan suffering from hepatitis, blood pressure or sugar disease. We are heading towards a civilization having long metal roads, railway tracks, bullet trains, airports, motorbikes and cars, but no green plants, no clean water and no fresh air. The first thing to do is to reduce population, which drives the energy consumption and GHG emissions. Sudden fall in cold waves and rampant rise in heat waves is a vital sign of climate change. Nature and human bodies harness extreme events by controlling temperature.

Cold and Heat Waves
Cold and heat waves are integral part of natural weather. Recent climate change phenomenon has increased frequencies, intensities and durations of cold and heat waves. A person exposed to cold or heat wave may succumb to death if the victim is not aware of his body behaviors during weather extremes.  The human body gets the heat energy from food nutrition (1.2W/kg), sunlight (1kW/m2) and RF radiations (0.01mW/cm2). Residual heat flow from the inside core to the peripheral skin varies from 5 to 9W/m2 ºC. Brain controls heat flow by vasoconstriction using epidermis sensor networks.

1. The Cold Waves
Cold wave is a weather extreme phenomenon during which air temperature declines. Threshold of the cold wave varies from place to place. A 15ºC temperature may be normal weather for Russians and Europeans, but Malaysians and Africans will call it a cold wave. A cold wave is an extreme event during which body temperature rapidly falls. Our bodies are built to maintain a stable core temperature of 37ºC (98.6ºF) for normal living. When the temperature in environment falls, the thermoreceptors in skin sound the alarm to the brain. Hypothalamus, a thermostat set to maintain body temperature at 37ºC, tightens the blood vessels in the arms, hands, feet and legs to reduce heat loss through the skin.

The vasoconstriction forces fluid to concentrate on body core. Volume receptors advise hypothalamus to get rid of too much urine, which conclude to pee. It is common on the ski slopes go to WC before and after going outdoors. Doctors suggest to keep the body dry during cold wave as a wet surface evaporates heat 25 times faster than dry body. Our bodies automatically start shivering. The human body gets 100W by shivering. It becomes essential when vasoconstriction fails to stop outside flow of heat. The hypothalamus may ask the muscles contract to create heat. When the body suffers mild hypothermia the hypothalamus may demand more shivering to create 400 to 600W heat.

Avoid taking alcohol during cold wave as it does opposite the vasoconstriction. Alcoholic drink causes peripheral vasodilation in which blood vessels widen to dump heat into the environment. Your skin will feel a false sense of heat, suggesting hypothalamus to take off clothes. A 30 year old young man took drugs in cold winter and died of hypothermia in swampy rice crop at night. Do not wear warm clothes during exercise. Shoveling snow during a cold wave requires lots of work, which dilates your blood vessels. Your body contracts muscles to generate heat, raising the core temperature. If you have worn the thick, warm clothes these may become wet and start sucking heat to cause hypothermia. Your body may become cold by warm clothes during exercise.

Cold wave victims try to engage in social behaviors to conserve their heat. You lose less heat when you scrunch down to reduce your size. You may share umbrella and warm blanket during freezing rain to reduce heat loss in the cold wave. Huddling reduces heat loss due to mutual heat release effects. During cold wave, hypothalamus tries all possible mechanisms, when all fail, it becomes helpless. When the victim goes into a hypothermia state his/her brain gets less heat to maintain its normal thought. Use of drugs during cold wave leads to high core and least skin temperature, urging take clothes to dump out heat. Several victims have been found in freezing water without clothes or lost in off road jungles.

Cheeks, nose and fingers are vulnerable to cold waves. There are signs of frostbite, when exposed skin freezes by the chill of cold. Fingers easily get frozen due to lack of blood flow during vasoconstriction.  Finger cylinders increase surface area, which looses heat faster than other organs. After frostbite thermoreceptors on finger skin stop working. Frostbite can damage fingers by turning them back, which feel numb or fall off in severe cases. Some people have an allergic reaction of cold, but not necessarily freezing, a weather condition called cold urticaria or winter bumps. It is dry condition, which can cause an allergic reaction on certain sensitive skins. It may end up in rashes and reddish skin.

When you inhale, your nose helps moisten, humidify and warm the air before it enters into the lungs. In case of asthma patients the air does not warm enough, which causes the lungs to spasm and constrict. That makes breathing difficult. Not cold wave, even high humidity, can cause discomfort to asthma patients. It is better breath in through the nose than mouth. When muscle tissue cools, it does not work well. At first it fails to do fine motor tasks like holding a pencil or cell phone, later it cannot do adaptive steering of the car or overturning boat.

During heat waves hypothalamus reduces the energy distribution of various organs so as to keep itself warm to keep on controlling the energy management system. As temperature further falls neural impulses slow down your muscles to retain heat. Blood flow slows to reduce heat waste to the environment. The more heat the body conserves the more chances of surviving the cold wave. In worst cast body starts shivering to create 100 to 600W heat to keep the body warm. An adage goes warm head and soft belly, are the signs of normal health.

2. The Heat Waves
The heat wave is a weather extreme phenomenon during which air temperature rises. Threshold of the heat wave varies from place to place. A 40ºC temperature may not be the normal weather for SAARC and African countries, but Europeans and Russians will call it a heat wave. Climate change drives frequent deadly heat waves. Jet streams (an air river) in the atmosphere create high pressure above the surface. High pressure reduces convection and increases convective heat flow swirling between ground and a few miles height above earth. It is an oven with whirling and twirling winds all around. My experience of the heat wave of June 22-26, 2017 is akin to sitting inside a recently offed oven or standing in a small room having space heaters on four walls and fan in the ceiling during hot summer. Heat wave gets more deadly in the presence of high humidity after rain.

A 45ºC temperature, in the presence of 90% relative humidity, may increase the effective temperature to 53ºC. High humidity in the environment does not let the body sweat to release core heat. Longer exposure to high temperature, even without high humidity, may cause heat death. Heat waves kill victims faster than cold waves. During heat waves, air temperature becomes higher than body core temperature. The heat starts flowing inside body to raise core temperature. The skin sensors, sound alarm and hypothalamus respond to heat wave by sweating through the skin. If the victim has little water inside the body, then subject faces life threat. It is advisable to drink 2 liter water, indoor and 3 to 4 liters during outdoor activities. Do not take alcohol or caffeine during a heat wave. Use light clothes, hat and umbrella during a heat wave.

Eat smaller, more frequent meals instead of large ones. Avoid strenuous activities and hard work during heat waves. Stay indoors or take regular breaks at work outside. Masons usually put their feet in water frequently to reduce water deficiency. People use fans, desert coolers and air conditioners during the heat wave. Increase in electricity demand affects utility grid, which is already suffering, loss of generation due to high temperature. Experience shows utility generation reduces 2 to 5% and consumer demand increases 10 to 15% during summer heat waves. Cold waves do the same on natural gas supply systems.

Human Response
Human brain uses eyes, ears, nose, tongue and skin sensors to connect to the external world and a range of organic sensor and transducer networks to connect to internal world. The human body is the ultimate state of art technology in nature. Scientists and engineers have developed automatic, intelligent and smart devices using computer chips and data acquisition systems. Nature inspired artificial intelligence is the Next Big Future. The human body reacts to weather extremes by thermoregulation. The hypothalamus responds to acceleration, pressure, height, humidity, fires, radiations, cold and heat waves by regulating blood flow to maintain the body temperature.  Human heart slows down in pumping blood at higher acceleration (g>5) accumulating blood on a side.  Air bladders may expand to maintain body blood flow. When external pressure declines the blood cannot dissolve gases resulting in air bubbles blocking blood veins.

Sudden explosion compresses blood vessels, causing risk of heat stroke. Fear of falling from higher heights reduces blood flow, which may affect the homeostasis.  Starvation reduces sugars and body starts breaking down fats (autophagy), which releases ketones causing bad breath and urine. We feel this stink during fast breaking dinner parties. Continued fasting kill diseased cells but weakens bones. High humidity does not let body sweat to regulate the temperature. High humidity and temperature indices raise the effective temperature. The human body may feel 55ºC temperatures at 47ºC with 90% humidity. Once core temperature reaches 42ºC the cell break down processes starts after 45 minutes. A fire burning at 600 to 800ºC temperature takes several hours to reduce body into ash. The human body on fire emits reek akin to pork ribs on the barbecue. The human body responds cold and heat waves by regulation of blood flows. Thermoregulation increases human flexibility to cope with diverse environmental conditions. Warm blooded animals use their physiological mechanisms and cold blooded animals regulate their body temperature by selecting appropriate environment.  Lizards, snakes, insects and other biting species go into holes in winter and come out during summer, which explains how the nature teaches how to adapt to sustainable living.

Radio frequency waves in the air add thermal energy in the human body like the sunlight, however, interference of multiple sources may increase heat spikes causing needle pricking pain in some part of the body, similar blood flow impulses on nerve endings. Radio and terahertz wave are non-ionizing but x-rays and g-rays are ionizing. Natural high frequency radiations may excite air to emit Northern Lights. A bulb may glow in the path of a few volts radar beam yet it does not ionize body. The background exposure level is less than 0.001mW/cm2 in the USA, which at the resonant frequency represents the specific absorption of rate (SAR) of 0.03% of the resting basal metabolic rate (BMR). ANSI’s SAR level is 0.4W/kg, which is 35% of MBR equal to heat of light sweater. RF waves impart thermal effects, though their energy might exceed ionizing radiation threshold ev energy able to break body cells. Human organs can function efficiently at 37ºC and can perform in the range of 35.5ºC to 40ºC caused by food intake and emotional factors. Warm blooded animals (endotherms) regulate their body temperature by physiological and behavioral changes.  The hypothalamus regulates body temperature by sweating.

The human body gets energy from food, light or heat and releases into the lower temperature air. The flow of heat energy is from the environment into the body at higher air temperature, and from the body into air at lower air temperature.  Steady energy balance equation may be written as
M  W      =    R  C  E  S    (W/m2)
Where M is body metabolic rate, W is the rate of work done by or on the body, R is rate of radiant heat exchange in air, C is the rate of convective heat exchange with the environment, E is the heat loss by body water evaporation and S is the rate of heat storage in the body. Studies reveal absorption of microwave energy equivalent BMR increases deep body temperature of animal by 1ºC or more. Body heat storage rate S should be zero to prevent temperature rise.  Radiation, convention and evaporation heat loss rates depend on body surface area. Conduction is very low, but convective heat loss/gain is significant parameter.

Heat loss in wet air is 20 times faster than dry air. We use wet air for cooling in hot summer. Latent heat of evaporation of water is 0.58 kcal/g of sweating. Evaporation of 100 grams of sweating radiates 58kcal of heat energy from body. We feel cool, when our body radiates heat into the air. Sweating depends on relative humidity (RH) of air, and only occurs, when RH<100%. BMR for a 70kg man is about 1.2W/kg (84W) that changes with body mass, diet and endocrine levels. The human body needs about 100W in routine.  Lungs, heart, stomach and brain consume 10, 15, 20 and 25W energies to perform their functions. An average person daily consumes food energy equivalent to 2 to 3kWh electric energies.  Human body stores excess energy in the form of fats as the batteries store electricity in the form of charges. The residual heat flow rate is 5-9 W/m2 per ºC from the inside core to the peripheral skin. Every liter of blood at 37ºC temperature radiates 1-kcal (1.16xhr) heat energy into environment through skin and returns 1ºC cooler. Blood flow and heat loss increases during hard work. Conduction includes heat transfer through muscles and blood circulation. Brain expands and contracts blood vessels to increase heat loss in the summer and decrease heat loss in winter.

Heat stress index (HSI) is the ratio of evaporation required for the maximum possible evaporation gives the measure of skin surface wet with sweat. HSI<20 is comfortable and HIS>60% is intolerable.  Heat storage rate S<25kcal is not evident, but S>240 is intolerable. RF radiations alter the effective metabolic load. Passive (diathermy) and active (exercise) heating cause same effect on thermoregulation as RF radiations. Exercise production rate by increasing heat absorption rate in skeletal muscles. The SAR value of 70MHz RF radiations reaches tolerance at the dry bulb temperature of 40ºC, at 60% RH, in 60 minutes with 3.11kW/kg SAR under 13mW/cm2 power density. The RF heating effect may be reduced by reducing clothing insulation in the body to increase heat transfer rates from the body into the air. The heat produced by RF radiations is not different from the heat produced by the body itself. RF and EM radiations may or may not cause the sensation of warmth depending on frequency, intensity, modulation, duration and exposed surface area. Doctors use radiations in diathermy in routine. IR and RF≥10GH are sensed (felt) on the skin surface, but MH RF penetrates into the skin.  Pulsed RF/RF radiations are warmer than CW waves. A few bands of RF radiations may impart excessive heat to the body at resonant frequencies like microwave food heaters.

RF radiations threshold to trigger thermoregulation increases at high temperature and humidity due to decrease in SAR threshold. When the deep body or environmental temperature is more than 37ºC the chances of RF radiation nuisance may increase. Long exposure to intense RF radiations may render the thermoregulation futile. Convective heat transfer from the body into the air is relatively high at wrists, ankles, neck, ears and tails in animals. Wetting of the naked parts helps thermoregulation at high temperatures. Smart watches use cells operated TEC to cool palm, which through nerve system helps regulate whole body temperature. Drugs may render thermoregulation futile disturbing the body thermal equilibrium for which smart devices may assist artificial relief.

Let the Earth Breathe
The global forest area has declined from 4 billion 128 million hectares in 1990 to 3 billion 999 million hectares in 2015. Our planet lost 129 million hectares of forests in 25 years at a rate of 0.13% per year.  More than half of the world lost forests and less than half increased forests. According global data 93 countries lost 242 million hectares and 88 countries increased 113 million hectares. Top ten countries have 67% of global forests out of which Russia posses 20%, Brazil holds 12% and Canada owns 9%. The big forest loser countries include Brazil, Indonesia and Myanmar and top forests growing countries include China, Australia and Chili. China has been planting trees at a rate of 1, 542,000 hectares per year since last five years and Brazil is losing forests at a rate of 984,000 hectares per year since last 25 years.  The forest produced 1866x106m3 fuel and 1848x106m3 industrial grade woods in 2015. World community derived economic benefits of $226 billion and 3414x106m3 wood in 2015.

Sub clause 2 of the United Nations’ 15th target of sustainable development requires rehabilitation of recently declined forests and addition of forest areas to fight the global warming. Forests are the lungs of the earth, providing fruits, grains, woods, medicines and natural habitat. The rampant rise in deforestation is increasing climate change and global warming risks. The reason behind widespread deforestation is agriculture, to meet global food demand for exploding population, which needs sustainable policies.  According to Global Forest Watch the forests supplied $1.3 billion in Pakistan’s economy in 2011, yet no attention was paid to their continued extinction.  Pressure on deforestation in Pakistan comes from increasing population.  Trees are cut in big cities without planting alternate trees. According UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the forest area declined in Pakistan from 2,527,000 hectares in 1990 to 1,472,000 in 2015 at a rate of 2.1% per year.  The deforestation rate in Pakistan remained 42,200 hectares per year due to which forest area suffered a 41.74% reduction in last 25 years. 

Government of Pakistan has not grown any forest on federal lands in last three decades. Punjab Government is cutting existing forest on riversides to make parks and roads. Pakistan planted trees on 362,000 hectares in 2015 which decelerated the runaway reduction rate. KPK Government, under the leadership of Imran Khan, started the one billion tree plantation project, Punjab Government established the South Punjab Forest Company, and Federal Government started a 100 million trees Green Pakistan project in 2016. The South Punjab Forest Company gives land on 15 year lease during with 7 crops of fast growing plants may be achieved creating 12,000 direct and 15,000 indirect jobs. Global commercial forestry has reached $200 billion. Pakistan is losing about 27,000 hectare forest area every year due to high wood demand, fires, famines and floods.  FAO forest outlook study shows the wood demand was 43.7x106m3 wood in 2007, out of which 32 x106m3 wood was required for burning and 12 x106m3 for other purposes. National wood supply was 14.4 x106 m3 and differences of supply and demand was 29.3 x106m3 which was accommodated by wood import, paper burning and illegal deforestation practices in developing countries.

According to federal statistics the world demand was 31.647 x106m3 in 2005 which increased to 77.362 x106m3 in 2015. Pakistan faces 144% increase in wood demand and 23% decrease in forest area in the last decade. According to FAO 51% homes use wood as fuel. According to Pakistan Social Living Standards Measurement Survey, 73% homes used wood for cooking and other heating demands in 2014-15. At the national scale, 81.8% wood is used for burning in homes, 14.9% in industries and 3.3% in commercial application. According to World Bank, 100,000 people deal in cooking wood supply annual business worth 11.3 billion rupees. According to Pakistan Forest Institute Survey average 49,986 hectare forest area is burnt by fires every year. A country should have forests on its 25% land. We are cutting trees at a rate of 27,000 hectares per year. If deforestation continues at this rate then we will lose all trees in next 40 years. Forests are the earth’s lungs, let the green planet breathe.

Let the Nature Speak
Plants, animals and humans are three forms of life. Human kind is an intelligent creature, which is wiser than animals, who have more speed, sight, power and sniffing capabilities than immobile plants. Our brain connects us to external world around using five senses and internal internal world using a range of smart sensors. It is commonly believed the animals and plants are created to serve humans. There are some communities (Jews & Hindus), who claim other humans are born to serve them. A few humans disregard their own type persons on race and faith basis and others overlook the natural world around them. Let the sun shine, winds waft, rivers run and forests foster.

Purling streams, babbling canals, beat of drum, blare of trumpet, boom of gun, blast of explosion, buzz of saw, clank of chain, clatter of hoofs, clink of coins, crack of whip, creak of door, crinkle of paper, pattering of rain drips, screech of brake, gurgle of water, hissing of steam, whistle of wind, jingling of coins, jangling of chain, lapping of water, lisping of baby, rattling of dishes, rip of water, rumble of train, crash of thunder, rustle of leaves, shriek of whistle, sigh of air, shirl of pipe, slam of door, swish of skirts, cloud thundering, tick of clock, thud of plate, tinkle of glass, toot of horn, whack of can, wail of siren, twang of bow, ring of mobiles, honking car, throb of generator, purr of bike, chug of engine, clang of arms, anvil chorus, wheeze of bellows, whir of wings and zoom of airplane keep us aware of the activities happening around us.

We hear gibbering apes, braying asses, growling bears, humming bees, droning beetles, chirping birds, bellowing bulls, grunting camels, whistling canaries, purring cats, lowing cattle, cawing crows, yelping dogs, cooing doves, quaking ducks, squealing pigs, trumpeting elephants, buzzing flies, croaking frogs, crackling geese, bleating goats, cackling hens, grunting hogs, neighing horses, laughing hyenas, howling jackals, warbling larks, roaring lions, chattering monkeys, singing nightingales, hooting owls, talking parrots, yelping puppies, hissing serpents, chirping sparrows, squeaking squirrels, gobbling turkeys, screaming vultures and howling wolves. 

We see prowling lions, leaping rabbits, loping wolves, flitting owls, striding people, trotting pigs, climbing monkeys, scrambling mice, lumbering bears, flying birds, running bulls, stealing cats, strutting cocks, wandering cows, flapping crows, bounding dears, trotting donkeys, waddling ducks, swooping hawks, ambling elephants, galloping horses, frisking lambs and soaring larks in danger and peace. We see prowling lions, hyenas and wolves attacking the dear’s fawn, goat’s kids, horse’s filly, sheep’s lamb and the cow’s calf to feed their whelps, cubs and puppies. We see eagles in air gliding and rolling to snatch hare’s leverets, hen chicken, frog’s tadpoles and mice to feed their eaglets.

We know league of nations, parliaments of states, battalion of soldiers, crew of sailors, flying squads, fleet of ships, bench of judges, library of books, quads of security, board of governors, throng of people, chains of schools, code of laws, curriculum of studies, course of lectures, congregation of worshipers, stampedes in shrines, peal bells, strings of lights, series of events, string of camels, line of ships, team of players, troop of rangers,  tribe of conservatives,  volley of bullets and galaxy of stars, swathe of grasslands, blue lakes, clump of trees and glove of plants. We see cloud of locusts, clutch of eggs, cluster of borers, covey partridges, quire of papers, set of tools, sheaf of corns, drove of cattle, flock of birds, gaggle of geese, herd of cattle, hive of bees, pack of dogs, litter of puppies, shoal of fish, stud of horses, swarm of locusts, tuft of grass, plague of insects, cluster of rockets, heap of ruins, horde of dollars, bevy of models, stack of hay, faggot of sticks,  choir of singers, wreath of flowers, breath of deserts, depth of ocean and series of mountains around us.

Cold wave swishes in winter and heat wave hisses in summer tell how the nature speaks. Let us try to listen what the nature winds want to whisper. Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria are consequences of global climate change. We could not understand the secret of Egyptian pyramids, the ultimate answer came from their scripts. Let us learn how the nature speaks.

Social Cost of Carbon
The social cost of carbon gives us a monetary insight of the global damage by an increase of one ton of CO2 emissions. US Federal agencies estimated the social cost of carbon emissions to be $50 per metric ton of CO2 emissions, which is likely to rise to $80/t CO2 by 2020. The social costs of largest emitters may be much smaller compared to the affected smallest emitters depending upon their geographical locations.  Top ten climate change affected countries have collective emissions lesser than 1% of global emissions. Estimation of the social cost of carbon helps energy transition, climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Global carbon pollution damages include life and property losses. The health losses include mortality, morbidity and restricted business opportunities. The property damages may be caused by diseases, pollution, smog, haze, tsunamis, cyclones, flash floods, droughts, cold and heat waves. Climate and economic models are combined to develop integrated assessment models (IAM) - such as DICE, FUND, PAGE and FAIR - to estimate the social cost of carbon emissions. 

The social cost of carbon gives us the economic value of damages associated with global GHG emissions to optimize climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Global 40Gt of CO2 annual emissions at a rate of $40/ton of CO2 are a business of 1.6 trillion dollars, which is likely to rise to 2% of global GDP if global average temperature rises to 2C by 2050. Global average temperature rise occurs immediately after the rise of atmospheric concentrations and decays in tens of centuries after the decline of CO2 concentration pulse in the atmosphere. Energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is the ultimate tool to reduce the social costs of carbon. Scientists use social cost of carbon estimation models and Finite Amplitude Impulse Response techniques to determine the role of renewable sources in light of Paris Accord and IPCC guidelines to reduce the social cost of carbon by decreasing GHG emissions.

The social cost of carbon is the economic damage caused by a ton of carbon dioxide emissions to society in the form of economic, property, production or life losses. The social cost of carbon monetizes the damage from releasing one ton of CO2 to the atmosphere today. The social cost of carbon is the marginal cost of the impacts caused by emitting one extra ton of carbon (as carbon dioxide) at any point in time, inclusive of ‘non-market’ impacts on the environment and human health. The purpose of putting a price tag on one ton of emitted CO2 was to aid policymakers to ensure whether policy to curb climate change was the rationale? The cost of carbon was estimated to be $43/tCO2 in 2017. Utilities and transporters must pay carbon tax of $1/kg of GHG emissions to compensate society.

Conclusions
Our addition to hydrocarbon honey is behind the climate change and pollution issues. To reduce carbon emissions the IPCC and Paris Accord guidelines demand voluntary and compulsory carbon emissions. There are several alternatives to accomplish net carbon emission goals such as close loop use of fossil fuels. Forestation and renewable energy share in the global energy mix is the next big target underway. Carbon capture and storage is an established technique to catch CO2 emissions on site in coal, gas and oil power plants to sequester it in oil and gas fields, subsurface caverns and oceans. Carbon dioxide can be captured directly from air the real challenge is where to dump it. Conversion of carbon dioxide into value added products, fertilizers, building materials and synthetic fuels by photoelectrolysis and thermochemical chemical conversion techniques is under extensive research. Direct photolysis looks more interesting than thermoelectrolysis. The direct capture of CO2 from the air and storage in geological formations and the laser breakdown of CO2 molecules in air by reducing more emissions of GHG seems to be a practical option.


Source:Ocnus.net 2017

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