The oil of the 21st century is not buried deep within the
earth. Instead, it falls on its surface -- as sunshine.
"The sun is the hidden asset of North Africa and the
Middle East," says Gerhard Knies, a spokesman for the Trans-Mediterranean
Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC), a network of scientists and politicians
from various countries who have taken it upon themselves to solve Europe's energy
problem.
Their vision, which they call Desertec, is to turn desert
sun into electricity, thereby harnessing inexhaustible, clean and affordable
energy.
Müller-Steinhagen has been commissioned by Germany's
Environment Ministry to check the feasibility of Desertec in several studies.
His conclusion is that Desertec is a real possibility.
In his studies, he has scrutinized the energy situation in
Europe, North Africa and the Middle East from the point of view of the post-oil
era. Out of all the alternative energy sources, one stands head and shoulders
above the rest: "No energy source even comes close to achieving the same
massive energy density as sunshine," Müller-Steinhagen says.
And no other energy source is available over such a large
area. Every year, 630,000 terawatt hours in the form of solar energy falls
unused on the deserts of the so-called MENA states of the Middle East and North
Africa.
In contrast, Europe consumes just 4,000 terawatt hours of
energy a year -- a mere 0.6 percent of the unused solar energy falling in the
desert.
Powering Europe from the Desert
Europe needs a lot of electricity, but gets little sun. The
MENA countries, on the other hand, get a lot of sun, but consume little
electricity. So, the solution is simple: The south produces electricity for the
north. But how would the enormous energy transfer work? And how do you turn
desert sun into electricity?
It's actually relatively easy. Desertec is low-tech -- no
expensive nuclear fusion reactors, no CO2-emitting coal power plants, no
ultra-thin solar cells. The principle behind it is familiar to every child who
has ever burnt a hole in a sheet of paper with a magnifying glass. Curved
mirrors known as "parabolic trough collectors" collect sunlight. The
energy is used to heat water, generating steam which then drives turbines and
generates electricity. That, in a nutshell, is how a solar thermal power plant
works.
Energy can be harnessed even at night: Excess heat produced
during the day can be stored for several hours in tanks of molten salt. This
way the turbines can produce electricity even when the sun is not shining.
Should the Sahara, therefore, be completely covered with
mirrors? No, says Müller-Steinhagen, producing a picture by way of an answer.
It shows a huge desert in which are drawn three red squares. One square,
roughly the size of Austria, is labelled "world." "If this area
was covered in parabolic trough power plants, enough energy would be produced
to satisfy world demand," he says.
A second square, just a fourth of the size of the first one,
is labelled "EU 25," in a reference to the 25 member states the
European Union had before Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2007. This area could
produce enough solar energy to free Europe from dependence on oil, gas and coal.
The third area is labelled "D," for Germany. It is merely a small
dot.
A Win-Win Situation
Under the plan, the sun-rich states of North Africa and the
Middle East would build mirror power plants in the desert and generate electricity.
As a side benefit, they could use residual heat to power seawater desalination
plants, which would provide drinking water in large quantities for the arid
countries. At the same time they would obtain a valuable export product:
environmentally friendly electricity.
"The MENA countries are in a three-way win
situation," says Müller-Steinhagen. But Europe also wins: it frees itself
from its dependence (more...) on Russian gas, rising oil prices, radioactive
waste and CO2-spewing coal power plants.
For countries such as Libya, Morocco, Algeria, Sudan and
especially Middle Eastern states, the solar power business could be the start
of a truly sunny future. It could create jobs and build up a sustainable energy
industry, which would bring money into these countries and enable investment in
infrastructure.
In fact, Desertec is no futuristic vision -- the technology
already exists and is tried and tested. Since the mid 1980s, solar thermal
power plants have been operating trouble-free in the US states of California
and Nevada. More plants are currently being built in southern Spain. And
building work has started on solar thermal power plants in Algeria, Morocco and
the United Arab Emirates.
Making the Switch
Müller-Steinhagen has calculated what the energy switch
would cost: To generate 15 percent of Europe's electricity demand, around €400
billion ($623 billion) would be needed by 2050 to pay for the construction of
solar thermal power plants. The power plants would cost €350 billion, while €50
billion would have to be spent on an electricity grid network to transport
electricity from North Africa to Europe.
This would require a network of high-voltage direct current
transmission lines -- also a technology which exists and is tried and tested.
It is the only way to transport electricity for thousands of kilometers with
relatively little energy loss.
But if it is all so simple, then why do countries with
enough solar radiation build expensive and dangerous nuclear power plants,
instead of investing in this simple technology? Are there not deserts in the
US? Why are Americans not freeing themselves from their oil dependence through
solar power? And why has no one really started to exploit the technology?
"After the solar thermal power plants were built in
California and Nevada, people lost interest in solar thermal power because
fossil fuels became unbeatably cheap," says Müller-Steinhagen. Solar power
was neglected even though the US was in the advantageous position, compared to
the MENA region, of being a single political entity rather than a conglomerate
of countries with differing interests. The US could achieve energy
self-sufficiency through solar thermal power plants in the sunny south-west.
But it was only recently that scientists writing in the respected magazine
Scientific American unveiled a "Solar Grand Plan" for the US.
Cheap oil has stood in the way of a solar thermal
breakthrough. Although sunshine abounds in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, Kuwait and other countries, so does oil. However these rich countries
could also afford to build solar thermal power plants. "In Saudi Arabia or
the United Arab Emirates, electricity costs half a cent per kilowatt
hour," Müller-Steinhagen says. "This makes it hard to convince people
of the benefits of solar thermal power."
Lack of Awareness
"There is a lack of awareness in MENA countries about
what this technology can do," says Samer Zureikat, founder of the
Frankfurt-based renewable energy company MENA Cleantech. "If you talk to
people there about solar power, they think of small solar panels that power
street lamps. They don't think of enormous power plants that can supply enough
electricity for a whole country."
For Zureikat, the switch to solar thermal energy is an
inescapable necessity: "Europe needs energy. North Africa and the Middle
East need water -- and fast."
Müller-Steinhagen agrees with him. In a different study, he
investigated the region's future need for water and the possibility of
desalinating sea water with solar thermal-produced energy. The study's
conclusion was that water shortages in the MENA region would triple by 2050.
The interest in solar thermal power is slowly growing.
Masdar, an Abu Dhabi-based firm which invests in alternative energy, is a partner
in a project constructing three solar thermal power plants in Spain. It also
wants to build them in its own country.
Admittedly, solar thermal-produced power is still not
competitive. However, conventionally generated energy is getting more and more
expensive -- and solar thermal power gets cheaper with the construction of
every new power plant. By 2020 at the latest, Müller-Steinhagen predicts,
solar-thermal electricity will be the same price as fossil fuel-generated
energy. On top of that, solar thermal has greater price stability as the sun
yields unlimited and free energy, which does not require elaborate and costly
raw material extraction.
Solar Sarko
Müller-Steinhagen wants people to take another look at the
technology -- and quickly. Now is the right time, he says: Europe's old power
plants are coming to the end of their operational lives and new ones have to be
built. These investments will decide the future of our power, given that the
operational lives of power plants extend into decades.
And politicians are starting to take an interest in the
idea. The German government is supporting it. On the European level, German
members of the European Parliament such as the Green Party's Rebecca Harms and
Matthias Groote from the center-left Social Democratic Party are throwing their
weight behind Desertec.
Even French President Nicolas Sarkozy has also suddenly
discovered solar energy, despite his recent sales of nuclear power plants to
North African states. "We are being inundated with enquiries from
France," says Müller-Steinhagen. Sarkozy wants to promote solar energy
within his controversial Union for the Mediterranean (more...), a proposal for
a loose alliance of countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea and other EU
states.
SPD politician Groote is hoping for "new initiatives
when France takes over the EU presidency in the second half of the year."
However, his Green Party colleague Harms warns against too much optimism:
"There is still only a minority in the European Parliament promoting solar
thermal power. We are still a long way from a unified energy policy."
Too many questions remain unanswered. Who will pay for
the electricity network? Who would own it? Could the various stakeholders agree
on a collective guaranteed price for solar thermal electricity fed into the
grid?
The latter issue is especially important for investors and
industry. Wolfgang Knothe, a board member of MAN Ferrostaal, an industrial
services provider, says: "We need political security to get going."
A lack of money is not the problem. "Renewable energy
is in," says Nikolai Ulrich of HSH Nordbank. "It is relatively easy
at the moment to get investment for renewable energy projects."
Desertec is still only a vision. But visions are needed,
says Knothe: "Without Kennedy's dream, there wouldn't have been a moon
landing."
Then, the will to make the vision reality existed, although
the technology did not. With Desertec, it is exactly the reverse: The
technology is available -- but the will is missing.