Rampant rise in GHG emissions cause climate change that drives global warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Differential heating of ocean and land create high energy temperature dipoles. Natural and human activities driven Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific Ocean El Niño phenomena create severe drought conditions in Australia leading to wildfires and heatwaves.
Uncontrolled wildfires lift hot green gases, smoke and pollutants up in air which cool and condense in troposphere. Wide swathes of bushfires cause “pyrocumulonimbus” clouds rich of carbon particles which sometimes fall back on land as black hails. These poisonous black hails are similar in nature to toxic black snow incidences in Siberia. History shows the pyrocumulonimbus thunderstorms bolster toxic downburst, black hails, dry lightning and fire tornados, which further spread the bushfires [Irena 2018].
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) creates drought in Australia that reinforces bushfires and uncontrolled wildfires create their own weather. Ferocious fires triggered pyrocumulonimbus causes downburst, black hails and dry lightning. Lightning, winds and embers stimulates more fires to cause nightmare of thermal runaway. Police rescues people and firefighters combat with flames to safeguard property, but wildlife is left their fate during such pyro calamities [Jim 2019].
Wildfires triggered clouds, downbursts and dry lighting
Australia is a land of opportunities and a natural habitat for wildlife. Bushfires fan polluted winds, power grid failures, life, and property losses. GHG emissions is a pyro calamity for public and wildlife. Hailstones, unlike sleet or other forms of water ice such as graupel, that is made of rime, and ice pellets, are smaller and translucent measuring between 5 mm (0.2 in) and 15 cm (6 in) in diameter. Precipitation in smoggy clouds may form black hails due to carbon black.
A downburst is an area of strong, downward moving air associated with a downdraft (opposite to updraft above fire) from a thunderstorm. When the downdraft hits the ground at high speed, the air is forced to spread outwards in all directions, causing extremely powerful and damaging winds. Meteorologist recommend to enter underpasses or stand under the large tree during downburst from fear of high pressure toxic gases. Micro and macro downbursts may cause 134 to 168 mph speed winds for 5 to 30 minutes which can damage trees and power lines in 1 to 10 miles areas. Severe downburst act like positive lightning discharge often called bolt from the blue.
Lightning is regarded as manifestation of nature. Lightning is a naturally occurring electrostatic discharge during which two electrically charged regions in the atmosphere or ground temporarily equalize themselves, causing the instantaneous release of as much as one gigajoule of energy. A dry lighting is produced by dry thunderstorm that produces thunder and lightning without rain as all the precipitation evaporates before reaching ground. Dry lightning due to forest fires may cause thermal runaway. Thermal runaway occurs in situations where an increase in temperature changes the conditions in a way that causes a further increase in temperature, often leading to a destructive result.
Russia and Australia are large producers of coal that is biggest culprit of climate change. Coal mining backfires on Russia and Australia in the form of black snow in winter and black hails during summer. Coal mining basin causes black snow in Siberia. Residents of Russian coal basin in Siberia live through industrial nightmare in winter. According to Peter, “Three separate cities within the coal-mining region of Kemerovo in southwest Siberia have been blanketed in a thick, black deluge of toxic snow, polluted by ever-present coal dust that pervades the atmosphere – and now the surface, too.” According to Vladimir Slivyak there is a lot of coal dust in the air all the time, it just becomes visible during snow falls, you can't see it the rest of the year, though it is still present there [Peter 2019].
Black snow blankets Siberia’s Kuzbass region in winter.
Watch (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AqjL5xQJIc)
Coal basin region is blanketed by black snow in winter in Siberia. Kuzbass’ coalfield stretches across 10,000 square mile. Siberian people living in the coal mining cities of Prokopyevsk, Kiselyovsk and Leninsk-Kuznetsky share photographs of the eerie winter landscape. One image reposted by the Siberian Times features blackened icicles dangling off of snow-covered branches [Meilan 2019].
Wildfires amid an intense heatwave has raised mercury above 40°C in almost every state. According to BBC, “About 30,000 residents and tourists were urged to flee East Gippsland - a popular holiday region - but evacuations were later deemed too risky as fires encroached on major roads.” [BBC 2019]. All major Australian regions like Darwin, Carin, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth suffer from uncontrolled bushfires. Australian fire fighters are combating abreast to wildfires, yet the wide swathes of fires are getting out of control. There used to be tales of “a house on fire” but never heard story of “a country on fire”. It is time to cap GHG emissions right now to avoid letting the planet on fire.
Climate change is all about water. Shortage of water (drought) and abundance of water flash flood, glacier melt and sea level rise. Drought, heat wave and climate change cause Australia wildfires. Indian Ocean Dipole during its positive phase creates extreme drought in Australia and extreme rain in Africa. Severe drought results in local warming causing heat wave and bushfires. A similar phenomenon in Pacific Ocean, El Niño, creates heat wave during its positive phase and opposite phenomenon called La Niña causes cold wave. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena creates extreme weathers on both sides in Australia and Africa. Extreme heat in summer and extreme chill in winter are vital signs of climate change.
Indian Ocean Dipole during positive phase causes drought in Australia and abundance in Africa. Drought leads to heat waves and bush fires in Australia and abundance to torrential rains in Africa. Wildfires and heatwaves cause air pollution, GHG emissions, causalities and property losses. Australia faces bushfires and heat waves, and Africa gets torrential rains. A devastating bushfire season started earlier than normal in southeast Australia and rains in east Africa.
“The common link is a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the counterpart to the El Niño weather system that develops in the Pacific Ocean.” In positive IOD phase (higher temperature) causes rains in Africa and drought in Australia whereas in negative IOD phase (lower temperature) causes drought in Africa and rains in Australia. According to Dr. Watkins, “Normally a positive Indian Ocean Dipole would die off at the end of November or start of December as the monsoon moves into the southern hemisphere.” [Irena 2019]. However superposition of positive IOD phase with El-Nino and negative IOD phase with La Nina, though rare, causes intense heat and cold waves in Australia. “El Niño is a part of a routine climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to above-normal levels for an extended period of time.
The opposite of El Niño, La Niña, is when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific drop to lower-than-normal levels.” El Niño, in Pacific Ocean, is warm phase of El Niño -Southern Oscillations (ENSO) that means a significant change of weather around the world, particularly in the United States. La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of hotter El Niño. The cool phase of ENSO is La Niña, air pressure is high in the eastern Pacific and low in the western Pacific. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. During warm phase of El Niño clouds develop from September to October. Words El Niño and La Niña mean boy and girl [Trenberth 2007].
Wood is considered a natural source of energy. Burning wood releases carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, sulfur oxide, VOCs (volatile organic compounds), dioxins, furans, particulate matter and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. “Dioxins are a group of chemically-related compounds that are persistent environmental pollutants (POPs). Dioxins are found throughout the world in the environment and they accumulate in the food chain, mainly in the fatty tissue of animals.”
“Furan is a heterocyclic organic compound, consisting of a five-membered aromatic ring with four carbon atoms and one oxygen. Chemical compounds containing such rings are also referred to as furans. Furan is a colorless, flammable, highly volatile liquid with a boiling point close to room temperature.” Bushfires release pollutants and green gases. Australian bushfires have released green gases equal to half of their annual GHG emissions. Climate change, heat waves, wildfires, cloudless rains, black hail and dry lightning events cause a havoc in global warming hit places like Australia and Brazil.
According to Heesu, “Fires blighting New South Wales and Queensland have emitted a combined 306 million tons of carbon dioxide since Aug. 1, which is more than half of Australia’s total greenhouse gas footprint last year. NASA estimate it to be more than 270 million tons in just over four months of bushfires. Destructive blazes have erupted in 2019 from the Arctic to the Amazon and Indonesia in what scientists are calling an exceptional year for wildfires… Northern New South Wales and southern Queensland are experiencing record-breaking dryness, and very low levels of soil moisture threatens to slash national summer crop output for a second year by 52% to 1.24 million tons.” [Heesu 2019].
The bushfires are common in Australia, Ash Wednesday (75 fatalities on 208,000 hectares) and Black Saturday (173 fatalities on 450,000 hectares) bushfires, but climate change has increased their frequency in last three decades. Bushfires 2019 have burnt 829 homes in 5 million hectares area. According to SGRSP Report 2008, there are on average 54,000 (46,000-62,000) bushfires per year in Australia. A bushfire during intense heat wave affects more severely than normal weather days.
Common causes of bushfires include lightning, arcing from overhead power lines, arson, accidental ignition in the course of agricultural clearing, grinding and welding activities, campfires, cigarettes and dropped matches, sparks from machinery, and controlled burn escapes etc. Bushfire incidences cause life and property losses in affected areas. Fire incidences are common in southeast, north and southwest in Australia. In southeast Australia, bushfires tend to be most common and most severe during summer and autumn (December–March), in drought years, and particularly severe in El Niño years. Australia, however, seems to be affected by both El-Nino and Indian Ocean dipole effects [Sullivan 2009].
Southeast Australia is fire-prone, and warm and dry conditions intensify the probability of fire. In northern Australia, bushfires usually occur during the dry season (April to September), and fire severity tends to be more associated with seasonal weather patterns [Burarra 2010]. In the southwest, similarly, bushfires occur in the summer dry season and severity is usually related to seasonal growth. Fire frequency in the north is difficult to assess, as the vast majority of fires are caused by human activities or lightning strikes.
A cold wave has frozen South Asia on Christmas 2019. In Pakistan, temperatures plummeted down to 9°C in Karachi, 6°C in Lahore, 1°C in Islamabad, -10°C in Swat and -16°C in Skurdu. This cold wave was caused by Siberian winds in Pakistan. Biting cold wave has caused respiratory infections, rush of customers was seen at chicken soup, fish and carrot halwa outlets to beat the cold weather. Cold waves come in Pakistan during winter months by Siberian Winds at 30-55km/h speeds [News 2018].
Chilly Siberian winds first come from Quetta to Karachi then spread in plain regions throughout the country. Siberian winds cause cold wave in Pakistan from December to January for one week [Staff 2019]. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecast cold wave in last week of November 2019 that continued to end of December 2019 [PMD 2019]. Lahore experiences smog in November and dense fog from December to January 2019. Karachi and Lahore experience heat waves in June and July every year. The intensities of cold and heat waves are increasing with passage of time.
According to BBC, “A "mega blaze" raging across a 60km (37 mile) front north-west of Sydney cannot currently be put out, Australian fire officials have warned. The fire across almost 300,000 hectares (1,150 sq miles) is an hour's drive from the nation's most-populous city. People who cannot defend their property from approaching fires have been told they should leave immediately.” [BBC 2019]. Researchers believe each year wildfires destroy 6 to 14 million hectares of forests worldwide. The impacts of fires are devastating to human communities and forest ecosystem. Zillions of animals are burnt alive in large scale wildfires. It is time to fix the future by learning how to avoid the past [Peter 2003].
The World Conservation Union (IUCN), The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and The Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF) suggest supporting research to improve the understanding of forest fires and their ecology, ecological and social costs and benefits, causes and management options. Building awareness amongst policy-makers, the public and the media of the underlying causes of catastrophic forest fires. Mandating and equipping managers to implement integrated fire management programs. Involving local communities and land managers in management planning and implementation, assisting them to participate effectively. Developing and enforcing compatible and mutually reinforcing land-use laws that provide a legal basis for the ecologically appropriate use of fire. Discouraging land management practices that predispose forests to harmful fires. Promoting management strategies to mimic natural fire regimes, including techniques such as prescribed burns and managed wildfires. Avoiding manipulating natural or well-established fire regimes. Establishing reliable fire monitoring systems that provide early warning of high fire risk and fire occurrence, and include evaluation of ecological and human impacts of fire. Preventing further forest loss and degradation from recurrent catastrophic fires, and reduce fire risk in forested landscapes, through ecologically appropriate restoration.
When Saddam Hussain put Kuwaiti oil wells on fire these continued burning oil for several days. Nuclear, chemical and electric fires need different strategies. Precaution, early warning system using IoT devices and quick response are the best policies. Once the fire has gone out of control the artificial rain may play role well if it is possible over the flames. Public is requested to pray for Australia and climate experts are requested to advise remedial measures how to control fire leading to thermal runaway.
References
Irena C, Fire tornadoes and dry lightning are just the start of the nightmare when a bushfire creates its own storm, ABC News, 28 November 2018. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-28/bushfire-storms-can-spark-fire-tornadoes-dry-lightning-and-more/10561832
Jim E, The bushfires in Australia are so big they're generating their own weather — 'pyrocumulonimbus' thunderstorms that can start more fires, Insider, 30 December 2019. https://www.yahoo.com/news /bushfires-australia-big-theyre-generating-134733341.html
Peter D, Disturbingly Black Snow Has Blanketed Several Towns in Siberia, Science Alert, 19 February 2019. https://www.sciencealert.com/siberia-is-being-covered-in-a-thick-blanket-of-black-toxic-snow
Meilan S, In Siberia, Toxic Black Snow Reveals the Toll of Coal Mining, Smithsonianmag, 20 February 2019. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/siberia-toxic-black-snow-reveals-toll-coal-mining-180971525/
BBC, Australia fires worsen as every state hits 40C, BBC, 30 December 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50938504
Irena C, Positive Indian Ocean Dipole fuels bushfires devastating Australia and deadly flooding in Africa, ABC.Net, 11 December 2019. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-11/indian-ocean-dipole-fuels-dry-australia-bushfires-africa-rain/11787874
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Heesu L, Bushfires Release Over Half Australia’s Annual Carbon Emissions, Bloomberg, 24 December 2019. https://time.com/5754990/australia-carbon-emissions-fires/
Sullivan, Rohan (11 February 2009). "Hot and dry Australia sees wildfire danger rise". The Association Press. Retrieved 13 February 2009.
Burarra, Monsoonal Climate, Burarra Gathering, 20 March 2012, http://burarra.questacon.edu.au/pages/seasons.html
News, Winter is coming: Temperatures to plummet as Siberian winds grip Karachi, THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE, 13 December 2019. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1865870/1-winter-coming-temperatures-plummet-siberian-winds-grip-karachi/
Staff, Cold wave to recede within a week, Dawn, 27 January 2019. https://www.dawn.com/news/1460027
PMD, Karachi likely to experience cold wave this week: Met Office, Pakistan Today, 26 November 2019. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2019/11/26/karachi-likely-to-experience-cold-wave-this-week-met-office/
BBC, Australia bushfires north of Sydney 'too big to put out', BBC, 7 December 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50690633
Peter M, Jeff H, Stephen K, Stewart M, Ron M, Forests and wildfires: fixing the future by avoiding the past, FAO, 2003. http://www.fao.org/3/xii/0829-b3.htm
